Colorado, Tampa Bay, and Carolina enter the stretch run sitting near the top of the NHL standings and the Stanley Cup futures board, separating themselves from a crowded field of contenders. With each club tracking among the league leaders in points percentage, goal differential, and underlying five-on-five metrics, this trio has established a clear statistical edge that matches its short prices to win the 2026 Cup.
Bookmakers and models still see a gap between this trio and the rest of the league. Bet365 continues to list the Avalanche, Lightning, and Hurricanes in the shortest tier of prices, reflecting both current form and the statistical profiles of their key skaters and goalies. The names and numbers backing those prices help explain why the market has been so stubborn in keeping these three at the front of the pack.
Colorado Avalanche: MacKinnon Driving A Loaded Core
Colorado’s status as the leading favorite starts with Nathan MacKinnon’s MVP-level season. Through 51 games, MacKinnon has 38 goals and 50 assists for 88 points, averaging 1.73 points per game and carrying a plus-minus in the mid-40s. He leads the team in all major offensive categories and ranks near the top of the league in both goals and points.
The support behind him is substantial. Martin Necas has produced 22 goals and 40 assists for 62 points in 51 games, giving Colorado a second high-end play driver capable of handling top competition and second-unit power-play duties. From the blue line, Cale Makar has 15 goals and 41 assists for 56 points in 51 games, maintaining more than a point-per-game pace while logging heavy minutes and driving transition from the back end.
Colorado’s depth scoring also holds up. Brock Nelson has 27 goals and 19 assists for 46 points, providing finishing in the middle of the lineup and on the power play. Artturi Lehkonen adds 17 goals and 21 assists for 38 points and an excellent plus-minus, contributing strong two-way minutes and forechecking pressure. Veterans like Brent Burns and Josh Manson chip in from the blue line, with Burns at 8 goals and 17 assists and Manson adding 4 goals and 17 assists while leading the team in penalty minutes.
Team-wide, the Avalanche combines this production with top-end underlying numbers. They sit near four goals per game, rank among the league leaders in shots per game, and suppress chances well enough to maintain a strong goal differential. That blend of star power, depth, and territorial dominance is exactly what Cup favorites usually look like at this stage of the season.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Kucherov And Vasilevskiy Keep the Window Open
Tampa Bay’s case is built around a familiar pairing: elite scoring from Nikita Kucherov and reliable goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy. Kucherov leads the Lightning with 26 goals and 54 assists for 80 points, comfortably pacing the team in both goals and assists while driving one of the league’s most dangerous power plays. His playmaking on the half-wall and vision through seams remain central to Tampa’s offensive identity.
Behind Kucherov, Tampa’s forward group continues to provide layered production. The Lightning have several forwards tracking in the 40–60 point range, offering enough scoring across the top nine to avoid becoming a one-line team. Their power play remains a strength, with Kucherov’s distribution supported by a net-front presence and a point shot that keeps penalty kills honest.
In goal, Vasilevskiy stabilizes Tampa’s entire profile. Over 33 appearances, he holds a goals-against average just above 2.00 and a save percentage around .920, numbers that place him among the most reliable starters in the league this season. He has faced well over 800 shots already and continues to provide high-end shot-stopping, especially in high-leverage situations and penalty-kill minutes.
Team-wise, Tampa’s overall goals against sit below 2.50 per game, with opponents allowed more than a goal per game, higher than that against Lightning shooters. That gap highlights how often Tampa wins the battle on both ends of the ice when Kucherov and Vasilevskiy are on the ice. The question is less about whether the core is still elite and more about whether they can stay healthy and fresh through another long spring.
Carolina Hurricanes: Aho, Jarvis, And A Balanced Attack
Carolina’s position in the top three comes from a blend of territorial control and a more balanced scoring picture. Sebastian Aho leads the Hurricanes with 52 points, on 17 goals and 35 assists, again serving as the primary driver at center. His ability to handle top matchups, win draws, and generate offense in all situations anchors Carolina’s top line and power play.
Seth Jarvis has emerged as the club’s leading goal scorer with 23 goals, adding enough assists to stay near the top of the team’s points list. His scoring touch on the wing gives Carolina the finishing threat it has sometimes lacked in previous seasons when chances did not always translate into goals. Beyond Aho and Jarvis, the Hurricanes feature multiple forwards in the teens in goals and 30-plus points, contributing to a deep, wave-based attack.
The blue line also plays a major role. Carolina’s defense corps moves the puck efficiently, restricts high-danger chances, and keeps shots to the outside. Newer additions and rising players like K’Andre Miller, with 4 goals and 18 assists, reinforce a group that can log heavy minutes and still drive play forward. The team’s overall goal differential sits comfortably positive, powered by strong five-on-five metrics and respectable special teams.
Carolina’s special teams mirror this balance. The power play sits in the low 20-percent range, while the penalty kill tracks around 80 percent, solid if not spectacular numbers when combined with their underlying dominance in shot share and expected goals. If the Hurricanes can continue to convert chances at a higher rate and get steady goaltending, their statistical profile aligns well with a serious run at finally breaking through to a championship.
Why These Three Stay On Top
The common thread for Colorado, Tampa Bay, and Carolina is clear: each has a legitimate MVP-caliber forward, at least one elite defenseman or goaltender, and enough depth scoring to withstand injuries and matchup games in a seven-game series. Their records through late January reflect that mix, as does their sustained presence atop models and the futures board.
Colorado leans on MacKinnon, Makar, and a deep supporting cast that drives possession and offense at an elite rate. Tampa relies on Kucherov’s playmaking and Vasilevskiy’s goaltending backbone to keep its window open despite an aging core. Carolina continues to overwhelm teams with pace and structure, led by Aho, Jarvis, and a mobile blue line.
As the season moves toward the trade deadline and playoff positioning, any major injury, slump, or roster move could still shift the odds. For now, though, the names and numbers at the top of these three rosters explain why the market continues to treat them as the clearest favorites to lift the Stanley Cup in 2026.