Looking back at some of the best contracts out there make one wonder just how much these players left on the table. Some deals work and some just flame out. Long term value exists on some that few could have foreseen.
Today, the spotlight focuses on the defensemen position and we start off with a value that hits well from Columbus.
The Best Long-Term Value Defensemen From The East
Seth Jones — Columbus Blue Jackets
Jones brings underlying value even after being injured early in the season. The scary thing is that the defenseman is still on about a 55 to 60 point pace. This 2013 draft pick combines speed with a shot that has only improved in the last five seasons.
The defenseman signed a six-year, $32.4 million contract two years ago – a $5.4 million AAV. This came after a 31 point campaign. He followed that up with 42 points, then came last year’s 57 point breakout. Basically, Jones is under contract until almost his 28th birthday. Jones’s value makes him an indispensable part of the Columbus lineup. The Blue Jackets allowed over a half goal a game more when he missed the first few weeks of the season.
Estimating his worth is tough but think what a top pairing defenseman could be worth given his production. That dollar number could easily be in the $7.5-8 million plus range AAV. No one would bat an eye there.
Let’s add a few more numbers to the mix. He has 21 even strength points already. On-ice shooting percentage at even strength rose to near 12% which is elite. Furthermore, his possession metrics are 3% above team average. Jones plays a rugged game but carries enough speed to keep teams honest. His 4th place finish in the Norris Trophy voting was no fluke. Just imagine if Columbus ever figures out their power play.
Morgan Rielly — Toronto Maple Leafs
Now, the debate rises a little. Rielly took his lumps early on in this deal but last year indicated a breakout in the works. This season, the Toronto defenseman had an explosive start that he has sustained.
The defenseman signed a six-year, $30 million deal two seasons ago. Last year started the jump as Reilly surpassed the 50 point barrier. He is on pace to attempt more shots on net, and his scoring chances at a career-high pace. He plays over 22 minutes a night and has possession metrics around team relative.
Shot selection is a major change to Rielly’s game that he consciously made an effort to change. He is on pace for almost 200 shots but his high-danger chances are up about 10% overall. Furthermore, the Toronto rearguard is hitting a little less and staying in position to attack offensively more. That hard work has paid off.
Rielly scored 13 times already and has 44 points in just 40 games. The Maple Leafs believe they have a 60+ point player in their midst for years to come. It is part of why the $5 million AAV is such a bargain for this 24-year-old. His next contract cost should skyrocket as he could be in the mix for the Norris Trophy this year and in the future.
Shayne Gostisbehere — Philadelphia Flyers
Gostisbehere signed a six-year, $4.5 million AAV deal just before last year. It is hard to believe the defenseman is just 25 years ago. Last season was a career breakout with 65 points — 13 goals and 52 assists. That included 33 power play points on a team where the man advantage was converting at almost 21%.
Unfortunately, the offense has dried up this year. The defenseman dropped from point totals in the 50’s and 60’s to just a 35 point pace. So far, this deal still looks like a bargain but the concern of Philadelphia rebuilding tempers the value some. Gostisbehere has four more years remaining on this deal.
Gostisbehere’s PDO is at an unsustainable 94.4, but it should creep up. Keep in mind, the defenseman is savaged by some awful even strength goaltending (league worst 87.7% on-ice save percentage is an abomination). On the bright side, the rearguard remains on pace for another double-digit season in goals. This may not be much in the long season but Gostisbehere should improve during the second half and beyond.
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