Sportsbooks Stanley Cup odds are often a little confused when trades are happening during the NHL off season. We know that adding a key player or two can completely transform a roster and, as a consequence, raise or lower the odds of the team losing or gaining the player.
For example, the free agent move everyone in NHL is talking about – John Tavares signing with Toronto. That move caused Bet365 Canada to slash the odds of the Maple Leafs winning a first Stanley Cup in over 50 years to 7/1, making them the outright favorites for 2019. Most sportsbooks had the Maple Leafs at around 10/1 before Tavares inked his contract, so you can see what an impact that the acquisition had on the market.
Tavares is the perfect example of how one player can, potentially, alter a team’s make up. Of course, his huge contract will have a big impact on Toronto’s salary cap, but they will feel that a team featuring Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, for this season at least, is ready to win now.
Islanders Look Unlikely to Flourish Without Captain
Indeed, while Tavares impact was felt on Toronto’s odds, the market for the New York Islanders bounced the other way as they failed to re-sign their captain and best player. Yes, the Islanders were probably not going to win the lot in 2019, but the odds going from 60/1 to 80/1 seems like it changed things from unlikely to highly unlikely for a side now headed by Stanley Cup winning coach Barry Trotz.
While you may think that such a seismic deal would influence the odds of other teams, the truth is that any changes have been minimal. Tampa Bay Lightning, for example, stayed around the same odds at 9/1. They are joined by the Bruins at the same price, with the Predators just behind at 10/1.
Capitals Well Back Despite Winning in 2018
Speaking of odds and how they move or don’t move, it is perhaps interesting to look at the Capitals. The champions have brought back most of last seasons Stanley Cup winning roster, including John Carlson, yet they are still sitting back at 13/1. That puts them behind seven teams, with the Golden Knights (10/1), Jets (12/1) and Penguins (12/1) joining those already mentioned ahead of the Capitals.
Does that suggest the sportsbooks regard the Capitals win last season as a bit of a fluke? It’s hard to say, but we do know that most fans and bettors alike were taken by surprise with Washington’s late blooming in May and June.
Things can certainly look a little different a few months from now. Most sportsbooks will have learned a harsh lesson from dismissing the Vegas Golden Knights before a game had even been played last season. But it will be interesting to keep an eye on how any future trades and free agents impact those odds before the regular season gets underway in October.