The 2019-20 NHL campaign is just under two weeks away, making it the perfect time to preview what might be ahead.
I’m going to predict each of the major award winners alongside honorable mentions I believe to have a realistic shot.
Today we’re looking at the Hart Trophy.
Winner: Auston Matthews – Toronto Maple Leafs
Last season Matthews produced at a 45-goal, 88-point pace despite his best linemate, William Nylander, missing a big chunk of the season, and not playing up to his usual standards for the rest of it.
This season Matthews is expected to have Andreas Johnsson and Nylander on his wings at even-strength. He’ll also serve as a focal point on what should be one of the league’s best power plays.
I think Matthews, who has been the best 5v5 scorer in the league since joining it, will also benefit from Nazem Kadri’s departure. His absence could lead to an extra couple of shifts per game, which would make a difference considering Matthews’ efficiency.
With steady linemates, a bit of an uptick in usage, and continued development, it’s a perfect storm for Matthews to have a big, big year.
If he stays healthy, I think he could win the Rocket Richard and tally 90-100 points. That might be enough to get him a Hart on what should be a very good Leafs team.
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Honorable mention: Connor McDavid – Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid is the league’s best player and a good bet to lead the league in scoring. He’ll probably put together a better individual season than anybody. Unfortunately for McDavid, voters tend to lean towards players on playoff teams and the Oilers – with all their flaws – probably aren’t going to be one.
He’ll almost certainly be a finalist – voters leaving him off the ballot would rightfully never hear the end of it – but I think a player who has a monster season and makes the playoffs (Matthews, in this case) will beat McDavid out.
Maybe one day the player who has the best season, and provides the most value to his team, will be considered the most valuable player.
Honorable mention: Mark Stone – Vegas Golden Knights
Stone is objectively one of the league’s top players. Only four forwards have been worth more Goals Above Replacement over the last two seasons, per Evolving-Hockey. All of them have appeared in at least 25 more games.
Stone is a strong point producer – he has 135 points in his last 135 games – and he could have more to give on a competent Vegas team that can score goals and generate chances in bunches.
Beyond the offense, he is an elite play driver, fantastic defensively, and he draws a lot of penalties. You can legitimately argue Stone is the best two-way player in the NHL.
With the attention that’ll come with playing big minutes on a Stanley Cup contender, a lot of people are going to realize that.
You shouldn’t be surprised if Stone is a serious contender for not only the Selke; but the Hart Trophy.
Numbers via Evolving-Hockey.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.
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