The New York Islanders have some decisions to make that will not be easy. From a numbers standpoint, it appeared the 7F/3D/1G setup benefitted New York. It would allow them to protect their more borderline forwards. Those forwards feature some potential as well as depth. New York has quite a few exemptions as well and yet have their share of headaches. If they were to go 4F/4D/1G, that would create some problems too. However, they may not have a choice because of Ryan Pulock.
This is dicey for the Islanders so let’s just jump into it.
Forward Decisions
The Islanders have a decent amount of forward depth to protect. Someone of value could get exposed. John Tavares, Andrew Ladd, Brock Nelson, and Anders Lee are locks. Now, Ryan Strome, Josh Bailey, and Casey Cizikas are more difficult decisions. If New York goes the seven forwards tact, then it is much less of an issue for Strome and Bailey.
Here is why. Bailey was second in the team as far as points. Some fans and people in the organization have a love/hate relationship with the forward. Those are just the facts. He will also demand a healthy pay raise next season. However, it makes little sense to give up the forward for nothing. That lends more credence to the 7F/3D/1G approach.
Ryan Strome is just 23 and comes off a disappointing season. However, his youth and potential will likely keep him safe. He missed ten games due to injury and showed flashes (30 points in 69 games). New York makes life so much more difficult for themselves if they go the eight skater route because of players like Strome. Keep that in mind.
If New York does go four forwards as some beat writers have mentioned then the locks above are it. Both scenarios will be accounted for here.
Who among the bottom six is worth getting those exemptions?
Ultimately, we’re talking about a team that has some depth to burn. It is also helpful that much of New York’s prospect pool is exempt. This decision comes down to three players. Casey Cizikas, Shane Prince, and Alan Quine.
Cizikas is expected to be the seventh forward protected. The 26 year old forward put up 25 points last year and had good possession numbers. He is considered their best bottom six forward. The drawbacks are salary and term. He makes $3.35M and still has four seasons on his deal to go. It is why Cal Clutterbuck is an easy player to leave unprotected. He has five years to go at $3.5M per season.
At 24, Shane Prince makes for a solid bottom six depth player who can provide offensive spurts. That is what he is, however. Furthermore, his future is uncertain considering the Islanders have enough players in the wings to make him rather expendable. Josh Ho-Sang is a prime example who showed flashes and is exempt.
Alan Quine is also possibly an odd man out because of the same reasons. Some just think he is a nice bottom six plug that could be replaceable at any time. He did have 18 points in 61 games last year and showed some possibilities on the power play. The problem is his possession numbers relative to team were in the -2 to -3% category. His face-off percentage was at 45.5.
What may happen…
GM Garth Snow has mostly easy decisions here if he chooses the seven forwards method. The toughest part is deciding does he protect Cizikas or Quine/Prince. It appears like he will put Cizikas on the list. There could be a trade between now and then but not likely yet. With the increasing likelihood of a 4-4-1 setup, Cizikas also becomes an odd man out.
Defense Decisions
Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk (NMC) are no-brainers to protect with significant value. Ryan Pulock has to be protected so that is three. That would be it for the 7-3-1. For the 4-4-1 approach, one more defenseman would have to be protected. Among those blueliners, it comes down to Travis Hamonic, Calvin de Haan, and Thomas Hickey.
However, do the Islanders consider trading Hamonic. That is one of the bigger questions here. He has about the same amount of points per game as de Haan but only played in 49 games. He would normally be a lock.
If four defensemen are exempt from Las Vegas, then it will be Thomas Hickey who gets dangled like a carrot. Hickey has quite the upside considering his on ice shooting percentage at even strength is solid (9.1%). He will come reasonably priced and Las Vegas knows this fact. The three and even four defensemen scenario leaves de Haan and Hickey unprotected, provided a trade does not occur.
Goaltender Decisions
This is an easy decision on the surface as Thomas Greiss is signed through 2020 at just $3.33M. He had some ups and down but did wind up finishing with a 2.69 GAA and .913 save percentage. Jaroslav Halak was on fire as the Islanders just barely missed the playoffs. Unfortunately for him, they buried him in Bridgeport for a time. His salary at $4.5M for one year makes it easy to leave him out there. That just seems to be Garth Snow’s plan regardless of results last year.
Projected protected players and their cap hits
Forwards
John Tavares (M-NTC, NMC) – $5.5M through 2018
Andrew Ladd (NMC) – $5.5M through 2023
Anders Lee – $3.75M through 2019
Brock Nelson – $2.5M through 2018
Josh Bailey – $3.3M through 2018*
Ryan Strome – $2.5M through 2018*
Casey Cizikas – $3.35M through 2021*
Not likely to get protected if Islanders go 4F/4D/1G = *
Defensemen
Johnny Boychuk (NMC) – $6.0M through 2022
Nick Leddy – $5.5M through 2022
Travis Hamonic – $3.857M through 2020
Ryan Pulock – $863K through 2018
Thomas Hickey – $2.2M through 2018*
Calvin de Haan – restricted free agent *
Hickey and de Haan could still be exposed in 4F/4D/1G scenario = *
If Hamonic is traded, then all bets are off.
Goalie
Thomas Greiss – $3.33M through 2020
Top two options on who they would most likely lose
Could a trade happen is the question. However, the two most likely choices appear to be Hickey and Strome. That could change as the time draws closer to the expansion draft. Halak was our dark horse pick here. Unfortunately, Marc-Ande Fleury waived his no trade clause so that is likely out the window.
If New York were to make a trade with Vegas to select/not select a player, who would it be and why.
I think New York is hoping that if they lose anyone, it is not Strome or Hickey. There have been several rumors floating around and many involving Travis Hamonic. He would go for a top six forward. That is the hope anyway. After that, there are still rumors abound. Stay tuned as Garth Snow has a lot of work to do between now and the weekend.
Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS