How Realistic Is An Erik Karlsson Trade To The Oilers?
Mark Spector of Sportsnet: Looking at how realistic the possibility is of Erik Karlsson being traded to the Oilers. You can invent the math that makes sense out of a Karlsson to Edmonton trade, but it doesn’t mean that math is based on any sort of reality.
Just to make the money work the San Jose Sharks would have to retain about $4 million of Karlsson’s contract as the Oilers are up against the cap. Not to mention this has never happened between two teams in the same division.
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Spector notes, the Coyotes retained six years of Oliver Ekman-Larsson at $990,000 per season. Same as the Oilers when Milan Lucic was traded to Calgary. It has happened only four times in NHL history that a team has retained $4 million in a trade. Those deals involved all players on expiring deals which included Claude Giroux, Taylor Hall, Nick Foligno and Eric Staal.
Say the teams just traded players with no cap retention, the Oilers would be under the limit of a 22-man roster. This doesn’t even include picks or any other players involved. The Oilers would be fielding a team of 18 or 19 players a night.
As Spector adds, the only way this deal works is if the Sharks retain money. General manager Ken Holland could make other deals work for UFA’s like Patrick Kane or Timo Meier or move Jesse Puljujarvi and a pick to Montreal for Joel Edmundson with money retained there. But that is less than the $4 million over four seasons the Sharks would have to retain.
The Oilers are just cap-strapped like most teams. And this team is pretty good the way it is, but only in a fantasy world does this trade work.
What It Would Cost The Oilers To Get Karlsson
Allan Mitchell of The Athletic: Mitchell looks at what it would take if the Oilers were going to trade for Erik Karlsson now that news of talks between the Sharks and Oilers have started up again.
Even with the Sharks retaining up to $5 million along with Tyson Barrie, Jesse Puljujarvi and a first-round probably won’t get it done as Mitchell writes. Sharks general manager Mike Grier will probably need more in a deal.
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First Mitchell looks at the defensive return. The Sharks will want Philip Broberg, while the Oilers will offer Tyson Barrie. They will likely agree on Evan Bouchard. Sharks want to get younger on the backend, while Oilers general manager Ken Holland likes to add a veteran defenseman. Bouchard makes sense especially with him needing a new contract and could deliver long-term production.
Then Mitchell looks at the picks. As noted Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff has stated, the Sharks were looking for three first-round picks for Karlsson along with 18 percent contract retention. However, the Oilers will give the picks and want more salary retention over the final years of the deal. Do they settle on a 2023 first-round pick and two NHL players to make the money work for Karlsson.
As Mitchell notes even with Jesse Puljujarvi part of the deal for money to work in the deal, there is still no guarantee even with the picks and salary retention, San Jose and Edmonton can get a deal done.
But like Spector above, Mitchell wonders if the risk is worth fielding a 21-man roster for the rest of the season.