The first trade attempt was rejected by the NHL, so Pittsburgh, Vegas, and Ottawa went back to the drawing board. What they came up was the following trade:
To Pittsburgh: Center Derick Brassard, forward Vincent Dunn, 2018 3rd round pick (OTT), and prospect Tobias Lindberg.
To Ottawa: 2018 1st round pick (PIT), 2019 3rd round pick (PIT), defenseman Ian Cole, goaltender Filip Gustavsson.
To Vegas: Ryan Reaves, a 2018 4th round pick (from Pittsburgh via Vancouver), and are retaining 40 percent of Brassard’s cap hit/salary.
So what are the nuts and bolts of the Derick Brassard deal? Let us take a look.
What Derick Brassard Means To Pittsburgh
Alas, Brassard will be without his running mate, Mark Stone. Stone and Brassard wreaked havoc offensively and was a key reason the center was able to play about 18 minutes a night. In Ottawa, the forward had near 55-60 point potential. With Pittsburgh, his pro-rated points per game are closer to 0.5 to 0.6 points per game. That is a 20-25% drop minimum.
Brassard’s expected ice time is expected to drop by as much as three to five minutes. He is not on the penalty kill for more than a cameo. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin will easily log 19-20 minutes plus a night. This will leave Brassard even the odd man out often on the man advantage. If he averages anything close to 15-16 minutes a night, that means something went wrong.
The third line center will be expected to keep things stable and score at five on five. To that extent, Brassard can excel here. Having linemates such as Jake Guentzel and Phil Kessel should help. The only concern is during those nights where the lines blend. Does Brassard get shoved down the pecking order further? Will he lose more shifts at times? It is a valid question.
Brassard is not Jordan Staal, but he does not have to be. His possession rate is solid enough, and his offensive zone rates should stay reasonably elevated. Riley Sheahan goes back to a fourth line role where he probably will be more suited. It is not the most optimal, but if any team can make this work, it is Pittsburgh.
What Numbers Could Brassard Produce?
This is a difficult question. Consider that Kessel and Guentzel pump over half their points on the power play. Getting Brassard could help at even strength as games get tighter towards playoff time. If the center can find quick chemistry, projections could change a little.
Possession metrics should stay decent and around team relative. Pittsburgh has just about 20 games left. Brassard had an 11 point in 13 game run when he was moved to the New York Rangers five years ago. It was one of his hottest spans as far as numbers. Face-off percentages, shots, points, and all were noticeably up, but is not quite the same situation.
Brassard is projected for right around 15 minutes a night if he is lucky. Expecting 12 or 13 points is not unreasonable. Something along the line of five goals and eight assists with maybe a stray assist on the man advantage. Brassard can get the puck to Kessel which may bump up his five on five numbers a little. That is probably what Pittsburgh is counting on. Some bottom-six even strength scoring is highly sought after this time of year.
There are some other parts of the trade as well. How did Pittsburgh pull this trade off?
The Business End Of The Brassard Deal
It was not simple. Pittsburgh needed Vegas as the third team with Ottawa to complete this deal. The fact that the Golden Knights took on 40% of the Brassard salary helped immensely. Saving $2 million was a huge aid. CapFriendly estimates Pittsburgh has just over $2 million in deadline cap space currently. Retention plus trading Ian Cole (Ottawa) and Ryan Reeves (Vegas) made the difference.
Vegas still has over $7 million in actual cap space and $32 million in deadline space. They are a team that can still make a big splash. Having Ryan Reeves does help as they face the early rounds against Los Angeles and Anaheim potentially. Reeves does act as a physical element. It is good business to protect the top nine assets. Vegas temporarily has 24 players on their active roster. They may take care of that over the weekend or by Monday.
As for Ottawa, besides the picks and prospect(s), they have over $2.1 million in cap space and counting. Pierre Dorion will likely be unloading even more over the next few days. What he cannot trade now, may be traded in the summer. Ottawa is going to bottom out. That may mean moving Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman, and others. When does that occur? Sooner or later, the likelihood is increasing by the minute.
Some Final Thoughts
This was one strange three-team trade. There are those who will cry foul, but the feeling is Vegas may benefit out of this somehow. Pittsburgh gains a fraction of flexibility. Ottawa begins it shedding of salary and “players bad to the locker room.” Finally, Pittsburgh has its setup aside from maybe one or two tiny tweaks.
What happens next? Between the Grabner trade on Thursday and the Brassard trade Friday, the hockey world could be a crazy place this weekend.