NHL Trade Analysis: Jake Muzzin traded to Toronto for prospects, pick
Bye weeks make for interesting trade analysis as Jake Muzzin was traded on Monday evening to the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The return was as follows:
- 2019 first round pick
- Carl Grundstrom
- The rights to Sean Durzi
Toronto needed defensive help and they went out and acquired some. Muzzin is under contract for another year after this at a $4 million salary cap hit. That type of insurance was hard to ignore given the murky uncertainty with Jake Gardiner. So, what does this mean for both teams?
Jake Muzzin impact, projections for Toronto
Again and again, the emphasis remains that the 29-year old defenseman still plays at an elite level. This trade helps Toronto now as well as in the future. It buys time for the Maple Leafs as far as Gardiner but it allows Travis Dermott to be mentored a little bit longer. Some feel Dermott is ready for a top-four role now but most in the organization felt otherwise.
Muzzin provides some offensive upside as well. He averages about a point every other game and could easily see a rise in production. That could come from the power play as Toronto’s is a huge upgrade over Los Angeles. Los Angeles was 26th in the league at just over 15% while Toronto is ninth at 22.1%. Muzzin could play on the second power play unit and that would be a boost for all parties.
The most important thing this trade does is it returns players to roles they are more accustomed to seeing. Ron Hainsey is a third pairing defenseman at this stage of his career. Igor Ozhiganov probably is a seventh defenseman in most places currently. Those remain facts.
Jake Muzzin playing 22-23 minutes a night is possible but 23+ is also a possibility. See how the minutes shake out first but if he sees more power play time, the latter is more likely. There remains an outside chance that Muzzin (who had a +4% metric relative in Los Angeles) could come close to 40 points. Remember, his defensive zone deployment rose by 11.5% over his career average. He still put up his numbers — 120+ hits, 170+ blocks.
Just a little more…
Toronto gains flexibility and has an asset for at least a year. They can even experiment with fit which is a nice luxury. They did not have to give up Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren or a roster player of any significance. This means the Toronto Maple Leafs might not be done just yet. Jake Muzzin gets a chance to have more time with his new team before the playoffs start. An extra four weeks goes a long way sometimes. As for the first round pick, it figures to be in the twenties at worst. With Toronto’s accumulation of assets, making a trade like this would not harm their pipeline significantly.
What This All Means For Los Angeles
Rob Blake knew Los Angeles had to maximize return on Muzzin. The argument can be made that he did just that. While he did not acquire the crown jewels of Toronto’s prospect cupboard, Blake did well enough. He nabbed two top-eight prospects and insurance for Gabriel Vilardi should his back be worse than expected. Carl Grundstrom ranked third or fourth as far as prospects and projects to be a middle-six mainstay. He had 29 points in 42 games during his first full year in the AHL. Grundstrom can skate at the NHL level and Los Angeles needs players like that who can also play in front of the net.
As for Sean Durzi, this is where it becomes interesting. Los Angeles likely signs the defenseman. The 20-year old is playing lights out in the OHL right now accumulating over a point a game with the Guelph Storm currently. He fired in five goals in his first eight games with his new team. He is a big minutes eater with good offensive upside. However, he still is a good 3-5 years away from playing in the NHL. Skating stride and technique seem to be issues but that can be corrected some with good coaching.
The first round pick is a bonus. This gives Los Angeles nine picks in the 2019 draft. Blake can trade down and/or potentially acquire more picks. The Kings will sell more assets. It becomes a question of who and how much return. Will any of these trades compare to this one? Probably not. However, the Kings need help for both the short and long-term. This rebuild will take time no matter who their first pick is in the 2019 NHL Draft. That reality for a team who had such a run the past several years is a bitter pill to swallow.