The NHL Trade Deadline received a big jolt around lunchtime when news spread that Matt Duchene was traded. Surprisingly, the Ottawa Senators sent him to the Columbus Blue Jackets for the following:
- A 2019 first-round pick
- A conditional 2020 first-round pick (if Duchene re-signs)
- Vitali Abramov
- Jonathan Davidsson
Columbus also received Julius Bergman who was part of the Erik Karlsson deal originally. There are some intriguing parts to this deal and a lot of moving parts when it comes to the trade deadline itself. Let’s take a look at what this means for Ottawa first.
What it means for the Ottawa Senators…
Ottawa gains assets from one that was expiring. Matt Duchene re-signing in Ottawa was never happening. They now can draft in the first round. Yes, that pick will be in the late teens or early twenties at best. However, this is good news for Pierre Dorion and the Ottawa Senators. Ottawa still likely has to move Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel. Those moves could come this weekend or Monday. Now, that the market is somewhat set, Dorion can show the price and choose yes or no on a deal. Ottawa starting the scorched-Earth rebuilding process had to happen at some juncture.
Vitali Abramov enduring a bit of an uneven season in Cleveland should not scare people. The forward is not even 21 yet. He has 12 goals in 52 games and 22 points. He will now play for Belleville (Ottawa’s AHL franchise). Likely, Abramov gains more ice time on the top line there. The concern with Abramov is defense. He will likely never develop into a well-rounded player. Unfortunately the same can be said about Jonathan Davidsson. Both will gain a chance to crack the Ottawa roster in 2019-20 because of lack of depth.
Abramov stands a better chance of making the roster based on offensive talent and shot alone. Also, he may not truly be ready but the forward likely gets an extended chance. Furthermore, the Russian has experience in the QMJHL so it appears he just has to work on developing his offense. Averaging 2.25 shots per game in the AHL is not enough. He misses the net a lot. If the forward works on more offensive fundamentals in Belleville and Ottawa if Abramov expects to make it in the NHL.
What this means for the Columbus Blue Jackets
Now, this will be interesting. Matt Duchene gets acquired for the stretch run on a team currently on the playoff bubble. He gains the chance to deliver a playoff berth for Columbus who wants to go all-in. Duchene enjoyed a career-best start in Ottawa with 58 points in 50 games. That included 27 goals. Also, his shooting percentage was an obscene 21.4%. Sadly, do not expect that to continue. Duchene surrounded by better talent should help his deficiency at least.
What is that? For one, defense is not a strong suit for Duchene. 5 on 5 on-ice save percentage routinely was below 90% when he was on the ice the last three seasons. Possession numbers improved to around 3% above average but that was the only reason why his PDO was right around 100. The 12.6% shooting percentage at even-strength happened for the second time in three seasons. Seth Jones and Zach Werenski should help a bit there along with David Savard.
Duchene delivers the ability to play along the half-wall better on the power-play than anyone Columbus employs. He will help there the most and at even-strength when it comes to creating space and hitting the net. The Columbus Blue Jackets utilizing two full scoring lines will be immensely helpful. Conversely, Columbus loading up on the top power-play with Duchene could be a frightening prospect for penalty kills. Who do you cover? This expects to lead to an increased conversion rate on the man advantage. Duchene’s quickness translates to penalty kill work as well. This means he can handle a 19-20 minute a night workload.
Duchene’s number projections in Columbus?
What does this mean for the final 20 games or so in the regular season? Would 20-25 points be out of the question for Duchene? The answer seems to be it is possible. Duchene enjoying an upgrade in talent over Ottawa and not having to be the guy may be a good thing. Ultimately, Columbus needed a center like Matt Duchene. It bumps down Pierre Luc-Dubois a bit but that may be a good thing in the long run. Expect the new number one center to thrive in his new surroundings. Finally, Duchene gets sheltered enough by his wings and team defense which should help his bottom line.