Petr Mrazek gets shipped off to Philadelphia for what amounts to be conditional picks. Detroit receives a fourth round 2018 pick and a third round 2019 pick. The exact terms could change a little. Also, Detroit retains half of Mrazek’s salary. The now, Philadelphia goaltender, becomes a restricted free agent at the end of the season.
What Does It Mean For Philadelphia?
For a team besieged by injuries, the Flyers needed a goaltender desperately. With Brian Elliott out another 5-6 weeks and Michal Neuvirth our for an uncertain time (lower body), the Flyers needed to make a move.
Mrazek is still young. He turned 26 just last week and is two seasons removed from an above average season in Detroit. He started 49 games that year with a .921 save percentage, winning 27 games.
Unfortunately, the last two seasons have seen Mrazek take several steps back. 2016-17 was a complete disaster with below average numbers across the board. Did he lose the locker room? That is possible, but Jimmy Howard became the 1A in Detroit again this year. That spelled the writing on the wall for Mrazek.
Philadelphia now has a young goalie who has been healthy. He has missed a total of three games in his career. No “injury prone” label can be tagged on him.
This all comes down to the Flyers taking a shot at a goalie who showed one very good season and had consistent even strength numbers.
Speaking Of The Numbers
Again, there are some concerns. Philadelphia ranks 21st on the penalty kill, and that slips to 25th over the last couple months. Mrazek has just a penalty kill save percentage of .835. Average is around .875 or so. Some of that can be dismissed by Detroit’s penalty kill which has been average this year at best (16th). Some of that has been on the positioning of Mrazek on the penalty kill.
Furthermore, Mrazek was an average to below average goaltender the last season and change in Detroit. Can he turn things around?
Some positives include his even-strength save percentage which has stayed relatively consistent. Last year could be considered a blip as the previous three seasons were good. How good? Mrazek averaged a .927 save percentage at even strength minus the 2016-17 albatross.
Goals saved above average was starting to climb close to average via his .910 save percentage this year. A body of work of 22 games is not much, but he did have three shutouts despite four really bad starts (.850 save percentage or less).
Thanks to Corsica Hockey, there are more numbers including high danger save percentage and more. Mrazek is around 80% there, and his medium danger percentage is above 93, which is also pretty good. Over the second half, Mrazek has played more poised and calm which has helped his numbers.
What Mrazek Can Do?
This is the burning question. Detroit has had one of the worst defenses in the league. It is more than allowing 34 shots per 60 over the last two years. It is more than their abysmal penalty kill chances allowed. This was a goalie that was well above average at every level. Mrazek has shown flashes of that even at the NHL level.
Philadelphia has had its moments defensively, but their pace of pace and offensive ability is a considerable upgrade over Detroit. That should allow Mrazek a little more margin for error. As he adjusts to his new team, the goalie should get a run of starts which could get him into a rhythm quickly. Again, Mrazek has potential to go on a run and Philadelphia could benefit. His ceiling is higher than Brian Elliott or Michal Neuvirth. That could mean playoffs for Philadelphia and maybe a first-round win.