Hello everyone once more and welcome to “Trade Deadline Odds” at NHL Rumors. Already, it has been drilled into us that the deadline is just six days away. Our goal with this short column will be to try gauge trending news with odds and make some sense out of it.
In short, what are the chances a player may be traded compared with analysis? The fun part of this is we get to use toys like a betting calculator. Can we predict a Josh Manson like trade perhaps? Or will something else happen completely unexpected among forwards?
Anyway, let’s begin again.
NHL Trade Deadline Odds Calculator – Claude Giroux
We lead off with one that sparks a debate just based on what position he actually plays. Claude Giroux is a hybrid. He takes plenty enough face-offs to play center but positionally is more on the wing at times. Either way, he is a very attractive trade candidate.
The forward is producing at almost an identical rate as last season (42 points in 56 games) is quite solid. There is little question those numbers would see a boost elsewhere. Whether that is Colorado or another locale remains a different question entirely.
Thanks to Play Now, there are numbers, albeit in decimal form (we convert it for you), to look at how the betting side of the market looks at the trade trends. Numbers suggest that Giroux seems likely to move but again, not everything is as it seems.
Right now, the forward stands at about a 60% chance of being moved by Philadelphia by March 21st. Naturally, things can change but the strange thing is the NO part comes in at almost 40%. Typically, the numbers do not always add up to 100%. It is why they call it implied probability.
Salary, ability, and fit are all interesting with Giroux. Also, Giroux holds all the cards here. Suitors are several, but it will have to come at a good price for Philadelphia. It seems rhetorical but the Flyers will not give their captain away.
Again, Colorado is not the only game in town. Boston, New York (Rangers), and several other teams have kicked the tires. Stay tuned.
Jake DeBrusk — The Odds Of Getting Traded
The Boston Bruins’ winger is interesting. When he asked to be traded, way back in November, DeBrusk looked as good as gone. If his odds were taken then, the forward would have been shipped out faster than someone gets “shipped up to Boston”. That is just a fact.
It may not take the sting out of his awful start but DeBrusk is about back to where his normal shooting numbers have been (12.3% this season). The question is this. Does Boston make a move here? He is an RFA at a price tag of $3.6 million. The forward does have 15 goals in 54 games which projects to over 20 goals in an 82-game season.
The early answer is no. A DeBrusk trade works out at around a +170 moneyline in American terms. That gives an implied chance of just over 37% (37.04% to be exact). It seems hard to believe but the upturn in his production only helps. Furthermore, there still is this feeling it could work out in Boston.
Seven other teams have at least explored the notion of acquiring the forward but chatter has waned some over the past few weeks. Sometimes when it gets quiet is when a move happens. However, this is trending towards less likely now.
The “Pack Your Bags” meter is lukewarm at best. Don’t worry. We have one more.
Could Tomas Hertl Find The Way Out Of San Jose?
We have one more in our NHL Trade Deadline odds for forwards. This is one of those that if the question was asked in February, the numbers would have been more no. As of this moment, Tomas Hertl comes in at a moneyline of -111 or a 52.63% chance of getting moved.
San Jose has been free falling down the playoff standings for the better part of this month. They have treaded water over the past ten games and remain right around .500. However, that has now pushed them to nine points out of a playoff spot with 24 games to go.
Hertl is one of the better two-way players in the league and when he is clicking, the points come in bunches. After a five-game slump led to further speculation he could be moved, Hertl’s production returned. He had three goals and an assist in two meetings with Los Angeles.
Hertl now has 46 points in 58 games on the season. He has been healthy all year which is very encouraging. For the most part, the forward has been throughout his career.
Whether Dionne Warwick gets to sing in this column come next week is about 50-50. There is little doubt that Hertl is one of the top pieces of this trade deadline class. He could stay or he could go.
Our next installment for NHL Rumors will look at some goaltenders. The data is always fun to pour over and the results may surprise. Thanks for reading.