Every season there is plenty of turnover in the playoff picture. On average, a couple of teams per conference fail to qualify for the playoffs the year after doing so.
That means the door opens for some non-playoff teams to make it back to the dance.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at a couple of Western Conference teams who could bounce back and make the playoffs in 2018-19.
St. Louis Blues
After making the playoffs in six consecutive seasons – five of which as a top-2 seed in the Central Division – the Blues failed to qualify in 2017-18.
The biggest reason for that was their inability to score goals. The Blues found the back of the net just 226 times, which ranked them 24th in the NHL.
The seven teams to score less finished 31st, 30th, 29th, 28th, 27th, 26th and 20th in the standings.
You won’t have much success if you can’t score, which is why it was imperative the Blues upgraded their forward core this summer. They certainly did that.
The headlining move was a trade for Ryan O’Reilly. In exchange for a package including more quantity than quality, they added one of the better two-way centers in the league. O’Reilly has managed to record at least 55 points in five consecutive years while providing his teams with plus defense.
The O’Reilly trade was far from the only notable move they made, though.
They signed David Perron at a very affordable price of $4 million annually. He is unlikely to replicate last season’s 66 point effort, of course, but he’s an established top-6 forward and will provide more offensive pop for a team that could use it.
While I am not a huge fan of Tyler Bozak’s contract ($15 million over three years), he has averaged 49 points per over the last two years while playing a sheltered 3rd line role – the same one he’ll play in St. Louis.
They also signed Patrick Maroon – he of consecutive 42+ point campaigns – for pennies because he wanted to return home and spend more time with his family, which you can’t blame him for.
Add those guys, a healthy Robby Fabbri, and Robert Thomas/Jordan Kyrou to a forward core that already featured Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz and Brayden Schenn, among others, and the Blues are looking scary good up front.
With Alex Pietrangelo, Colton Parayko and Vince Dunn, who showed a lot of promise as a rookie, anchoring the defense they are in good hands there as well.
If Jake Allen and Chad Johnson can provide even average goaltending, the Blues will make the playoffs comfortably.
Calgary Flames
The 2017-18 season was not kind to the Calgary Flames.
They missed the playoffs by 11 points despite playing in a weak Pacific Division. They won just 45% of their games. They posted a minus-30 goal differential, which was better than only Vancouver and Arizona – two bottom feeders – in the Western Conference.
The biggest reason for their struggles: they couldn’t put the puck in the net.
At 5v5, the Flames averaged 64.37 shot attempts per 60 minutes (1st in the NHL), 28.74 scoring chances (4th), and 2.61 expected goals (5th). Generating good looks wasn’t an issue. They just couldn’t convert as they scored on only 6.79% of their 5v5 shots. In other words, opposing goaltenders stopped the puck 93.21% of the time. Not ideal!
The Flames clearly needed to add some scoring punch up front and they did just that.
In free agency, they went out and signed James Neal, Derek Ryan, and Austin Czarnik.
Neal has potted at least 20 goals in 10 consecutive seasons and ranks 8th in 5v5 goals – ahead of notables like John Tavares, Jamie Benn, and Phil Kessel – over the last three seasons. He’ll bring some much-needed shooting talent and finishing ability to the table.
Ryan is far from a marquee name but he has averaged 37 points per 82 games over the last two seasons. He is also a right-handed shot, which the Flames were severely lacking. He’ll add some offensive punch and versatility to a bottom-6 that really needed it.
Czarnik has only enjoyed a cup of coffee in the NHL – he has just 59 games on his resume – but he owns an impressive 54 Corsi For% and has produced 5v5 points at a comparable rate to Tomas Hertl, Wayne Simmonds, and Kyle Okposo.
At the AHL level, his numbers were better than Yanni Gourde’s at the same age. Expecting Czarnik to be the next Gourde is unrealistic, however, he clearly has some talent. There is plenty of reason to believe he’s an upgrade over the garbage the Flames trotted out in their bottom-6 on a nightly basis last year.
The Flames also added more raw talent swapping Micheal Ferland for Elias Lindholm in a blockbuster trade with Carolina.
Their offense may not be Tampa Bay, Winnipeg, Pittsburgh or Toronto caliber, but there’s reason to believe it could be solid with several useful contributors joining a group that already featured high-end talents like Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Matthew Tkachuk.
The concern in Calgary is the defense, which sounds crazy given their blueline was considered elite at this time last year.
It was surprisingly shaky at times last season and their only personnel change in terms of NHL bodies was swapping Dougie Hamilton for Noah Hanifin. While the latter is promising, that’s a pretty big downgrade.
Mark Giordano is showing no signs of slowing down and Hanifin seems like a good bet to hold his own with 2nd pairing responsibilities. What the Flames really need is T.J. Brodie and/or Travis Hamonic to bounce back and take care of business on the right side.
If that happens, the Flames should be able to snag a playoff spot in a pretty soft Pacific Division.
Pucks in Depth: Two Eastern Conference Teams Who Could Bounce Back in 2018-19
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick and Corsica.Hockey.
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