The 2019 NHL Free Agent Class takes a turn to the back end. Defenseman seem few and far between when it comes to significant free agents. These are players who will hit the market for the first time.
Our first choice is a headliner but the other two are nowhere near that level. This position is thin, honestly.
Anyway, the top UFA should get a huge payday if they get to free agency on July 1st.
NHL Free Agents — First Time Defensemen
3. Jordan Oesterle — Arizona Coyotes — 27 years old in 2019
Oesterle feels like something appealing based on lowered expectations. He has not performed terribly for Arizona so far but his numbers are down from last season. The defenseman averages less than 0.75 shots per game (1.8 last year). His scoring chances are down by at least 20% and he has just four points in 17 games.
The good thing is Oesterle is holding his own metrics wise. Relative to Arizona, he is right about average defensively. For the small price the Coyotes paid for him, Oesterle is somewhat of a bargain. He does possess a pretty good shot but he has missed the net in 32 of his 43 shot attempts this season.
He’ll earn $650,000 for the 2018-19 campaign. What could he make for 2019-20? The projected cap next season allows Arizona to keep him for a very nominal rate. Oesterle plays about 18 minutes a night mostly on the third pairing. A defenseman at that position probably commands $1.5 million or less on the open market. If he can turn around his PDO of 95, then he may see a bigger payday.
2. Jake Gardiner — Toronto Maple Leafs — 29 years old in 2019
Gardiner scoring at a 40 point pace is about normal regression given his breakout of sorts last season. Defensively, his role changed a bit which also explains the drop in certain numbers. Note, he is deployed 56% in the defensive zone which is up from his career average of 49.8%. His possession metrics fell to around -5% when compared to Toronto’s team relative which is not surprising.
Furthermore, there are a few other concerns. Gardiner’s scoring chances regressed about 10% in the early going. His PDO is approaching 104 which is in the unsustainable range. His power play time lessened though his average time of ice only dipped about 40 seconds or so. Shot rate has dipped by about a third of a shot per contest. Missing the net two-thirds of the time is never good.
Gardiner earns $4.05 million for the 2018-19 season. What may he get paid for 2019-20? This presents an excellent question. What do you pay a prime defenseman who is playing more of a defensive role that can still garner around 40 points? It is likely he sees a modest but not huge raise when he tests free agency.
1. Erik Karlsson — San Jose Sharks — 29 years old in 2019
Karlsson easily should command $10+ million in free agency but has his trade to the San Jose Sharks hurt his bottom line? It’s a great question because so far his no goals and ten assists have been underwhelming at times. The chance and shot rates though have been more encouraging.
The great aspect about Karlsson’s play (minus some of the turnovers) is his possession metrics which have been amazing even by San Jose standards. He has started nearly +6% compared to the team average. Even his giveaway/takeaway ratio has improved in San Jose. His goal production being at zero and his PDO of 93.9 are woefully unsustainable. Karlsson starting the season like this is not new. The fact he has gone without a goal this long is.
He’ll earn $6.5 million for the 2018-19 campaign. What could he make for 2019-20? Karlsson was offered $10 million by Ottawa in the off-season. Also, a few teams were willing to pay even more. That should not change. The question is will he re-sign in San Jose? That answer is unknown. What is known is that Karlsson’s numbers should rise throughout the season. Will he top 70 points? That answer is no. However, he might hit that pace sometime soon. Market value will rise for Karlsson. Do not doubt it.