As yet another disappointing season draws to a close for the Edmonton Oilers, the focus of their long-suffering fan base shifts toward what could be a crucial offseason.
The Oilers are expected to hire a new general manager and head coach this summer. Whoever fills the GM role will have their hands full attempting to rebuild a once-proud franchise mired in mediocrity due to years of mismanagement.
As this season ends, the Oilers are composed of two superstar forwards (Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl), a good two-way center (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins), a couple of young defensemen (Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse) who may or may not blossom into reliable top-pairing rearguards, an expensive power forward whose best seasons are well behind him (Milan Lucic) and, as the Edmonton Journal‘s David Staples recently observed, a bunch of fourth liners.
Quibbling over what forwards like Zack Kassian or Alex Chiasson or defensemen such as Andrej Sekera, Kris Russell or Adam Larsson bring to the ice is pointless. Whatever their qualities, they’re not enough to turn the Oilers into a perennial playoff contender.
The Oilers woes have prompted some fans and pundits to suggest they’re wasting McDavid’s best years. The same could also be said of Draisaitl. McDavid and Draisaitl may be signed through the middle of the next decade, but they could their respective futures in Edmonton if things haven’t improved before then.
For years, the complaint about the Oilers’ front office was it was an old-boys network dominated by ex-Oilers who were buried too deeply within their own bubble. But now-former GM Peter Chiarelli, who built the Boston Bruins into a Stanley Cup champion in 2011, wasn’t from that network when he was hired in 2015.
Either Chiarelli’s decisions during his tenure in Edmonton were affected by too much meddling from higher up, he had already lost the golden touch he once had or a combination of both. His successor must be someone who’s not an Oilers alumni and still in his management prime with a proven record for turning around a struggling franchise.
The next Oilers GM could have perhaps a three-year window to turn things around. He won’t have the luxury of taking a year to evaluate the roster before making significant changes.
It certainly won’t be easy. For starters, he’ll have to find a way to shed some salary-cap space. With over $71.7 million invested in 16 players (stick tap to Cap Friendly), the Oilers could have less than $12 million to work with this summer assuming the salary cap reaches the projected $83 million for 2019-20.
The good news is they don’t face any expensive re-signings this summer. The bad news is freeing up additional cap space will be difficult
The Athletic’s Allan Mitchell (subscription required) recently listed Lucic, Sekera, and Russell as three possible cost-cutting candidates, using the savings to bring in speed, skill and goaltending depth.
Buying out the remaining four years of Lucic’s contract isn’t a good option, leading Mitchell to suggest packaging Lucic with a prospect and pick up part of his salary in a trade. Given Lucic’s decline and remaining contract tenure, that’s easier said than done. Buying out the remaining two years of Sekera’s contract and trading Russell appears the more likely scenarios.
Figuring out what to do with struggling Jesse Puljujarvi will be another issue. The 20-year-old winger still has the potential to blossom into a scoring winger. Surgery to repair a hip condition might also rectify his inconsistent play. So could playing for a coach with the patience to help him rediscover his scoring touch.
Bolstering the goaltending is another priority. Chiarelli may have felt Mikko Koskinen was worth a three-year, $13.5-million contract extension (with a modified no-trade clause), but he’s yet to fully establish himself as their starter.
Adding another experienced netminder to share the duties with Koskinen – or even challenge him for the starter’s role – without breaking the bank is a must. The market for free-agent goaltenders this summer isn’t very deep but maybe someone like New York Islanders goalie Robin Lehner could be worth pursuing if he hits the open market in July.
What to do with their 2019 first-round pick is a key question. The Oilers could get lucky and win next month’s draft lottery, which will likely cause a meltdown of hockey’s Twitter universe. They currently have only a five percent chance of winning, but could still finish with a pick among the top-10.
It might be worthwhile seeing what that pick could fetch in the trade market, especially if it’s the first-overall selection. Granted, it would take a substantial offer to pry that away from them. But if they could also package someone like Russell or Sekera in the deal, maybe they could land a quality return that would have an immediate positive impact while clearing some cap space in the process.