The 2024 NHL offseason was defined by blockbuster signings, with franchises betting heavily on high-profile free agents to elevate their Stanley Cup aspirations. However, as the 2024-25 season runs past its midpoint, several marquee acquisitions have dramatically underperformed, leaving their teams disappointed. Jonathan Marchessault, Elias Lindholm, and Steven Stamkos are at the forefront of this trend, three players whose struggles have become emblematic of the risks inherent in NHL free agency.
Steven Stamkos: A Legendary Career Derailed?
Steven Stamkos’s departure from the Tampa Bay Lightning after 16 seasons marked the end of an era. The two-time Stanley Cup champion and seven-time 40-goal scorer signed a four-year, $32 million deal with the Nashville Predators, aiming to inject elite scoring into a playoff-caliber roster. Instead, Stamkos has suffered the worst slump of his career. Through 52 games, he has managed just 17 goals and 16 assists for 33 points—a far cry from the 81-point campaign he delivered in 2023-24.
Over his last five games, he has failed to register a single point, and his -16 rating ranks among the worst on a Predators team languishing at the bottom of the Western Conference. This is from a team that opened at +1600 odds to win the Stanley Cup in October and is now at a distant +20,000 odds, according to Lightning Storm casino and sportsbook.
Stamkos’s decline is staggering when contrasted with his legacy. A career .98 points-per-game player, he now sits at .63 this season. While his 15.3% shooting percentage from last year remains the same, his average shots per game are 2.2 vs. 3.3 last season and 3.0 for his career. Worse still, his average ice time (17:57 per game) is the second lowest since his rookie season. The Predators, who added Stamkos alongside Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei in a $20.5 million spending spree, now own the NHL’s third-worst record (18-27-7). While some attribute their struggles to a league-worst 5.57% team shooting percentage at 5-on-5, Stamkos’s inability to drive play or capitalize on power-play opportunities has been a glaring issue.
Jonathan Marchessault: From Conn Smythe to Invisible
Jonathan Marchessault’s five-year, $27.5 million contract with Nashville was supposed to solidify the Predators as a contender. Fresh off a 42-goal, 69-point season with the Vegas Golden Knights—and a Conn Smythe Trophy in 2023—Marchessault was expected to thrive alongside Stamkos. Instead, his production has cratered. Through 51 games, he has 15 goals and 23 assists, a pace that would give him just 24 goals and 61 points over an entire season—his worst output since 2019-20. His 9.5% shooting percentage is a six-season low, and his -14 plus/minus reflects defensive liabilities that have compounded Nashville’s struggles.
Given his reputation as a clutch performer, Marchessault’s decline is particularly puzzling. In Vegas, he thrived in high-pressure situations, but in Nashville, he’s often invisible on the ice, tallying just three power-play goals and four multi-point performances. The Predators’ inability to replicate Vegas’s offensive system, which emphasized speed and transition play, has left Marchessault stranded in a system that prioritizes defensive rigidity over creativity.
Elias Lindholm: Boston’s $54 Million Mistake
The Boston Bruins’ decision to sign Elias Lindholm to a seven-year, $54.25 million contract was widely criticized for its terms and financial commitment. Lindholm, a Selke Trophy contender during his peak with the Calgary Flames, was expected to bolster Boston’s center depth and two-way play. Instead, he’s become a symbol of the Bruins’ regression. Through 54 games, Lindholm has nine goals and 19 assists—a 28-point pace that would mark his worst full-season output since 2016-17. His -7 rating and 10.5% shooting percentage underscore his struggles to adapt to a top-six role.
Lindholm’s defensive metrics, once his saving grace, have also eroded. His 54.7% faceoff win rate is solid but unremarkable, and his 18:00 average ice time reflects diminished trust from Boston’s coaching staff. The Bruins, who fired head coach Jim Montgomery in November, now sit outside the playoff picture, with Lindholm’s contract already labeled an albatross. Comparatively, his $7.75 million AAV dwarfs the production of peers like Chandler Stephenson ($6.25 million AAV) and Sean Monahan ($5.5 million AAV), further magnifying the signing’s poor value.
The Ripple Effect of High-Stakes Gambles
These three signings highlight the peril of long-term commitments in free agency. Stamkos (34), Marchessault (33), and Lindholm (30) are all on the wrong side of 30, and their contracts carry significant aging risks. Nashville’s $8 million AAV for Stamkos and $5.5 million for Marchessault will handicap their cap flexibility through 2028, while Boston’s Lindholm deal runs through 2031.
For the Predators, the fallout is immediate. Once a playoff team, they face a rebuild just months after an aggressive retool. Meanwhile, Boston must reconcile its “win-now” mentality with a core lacking the depth to compete in a stacked Atlantic Division. As for the players, their legacies hang in the balance. Stamkos, a future Hall of Famer, risks tarnishing his final chapters. Marchessault and Lindholm, meanwhile, face uphill battles to prove they’re not merely products of past systems.
The 2024 free-agent class is a cautionary tale in a league where parity reigns: even proven stars cannot guarantee success. The road to redemption grows steeper with each passing game for these three players and their teams.