With the free agent class mostly settled into new homes, it’s time to start speculating on next year’s UFA group. While the 2014-15 cohort lacked elite impact players, next season’s list of potential free agents offers star power at many positions – if teams let these players get that far.
Here you’ll find a look at the top ten free agent defensemen for the 2015-16 free agent frenzy.
The ranking will be based on a combination of four factors. First, the overall likelihood that the player will actually reach free agency. While difficult to judge with certainty, the list is more meaningful if it highlights the players most likely to actually switch teams next July. Second, the player’s overall skill set will be considered – their individual production and their impact on the play of teammates. Third, the player’s likely contract value will factor in. Fourth, age considerations will play a role in moving names up and down the list.
** Please note the order: the likelihood that a player will actually reach free agency takes precedence over all other factors.**
On with the countdown.
10. Braydon Coburn – Tampa Bay Lightning
Right Defenseman – 30 years old – $4.5 million
Likelihood of free agency: 7/10
Before being traded at last season’s deadline, Coburn was the longest tenured Philadelphia Flyers player. The 30-year-old was dealt for Radko Gudas and Tampa’s first and third round picks in 2015, making Coburn was a pricey addition for Tampa’s playoff run. In Philadelphia, Coburn had earned a reputation as turnover-prone. Scouting reports on Coburn suggest that he can be inconsistent and timid, leading to mistakes. Entering his 30s and earning $4.5 million, it’s easy to imagine the Tampa Bay Lightning shedding Coburn’s salary as they focus on anteing up for UFA-to-be Steven Stamkos.
But Coburn does offer value. Even at 6’5, 220 lbs., he’s regarded as a smooth skater who can rush the puck and play either side of the ice. In Philadelphia, he was often tasked with big minutes and difficult assignments, which led to misperceptions about his abilities.
Coburn profiles as a workhorse defender capable of top-pairing minutes and positive possession impacts. His individual production is top-four quality but the big key in Coburn’s advanced statistics is his excellent impact on Corsi Against per 60. If Coburn is willing to settle for a similar or slightly reduced salary, he’ll be a hotly pursued free agent capable of soaking up minutes on any team’s blue line.
9. Brian Campbell – Florida Panthers
Left Defense – 36 years old – $7.143 million
Likelihood of free agency: 6/10
Coming off of a huge $7.1 million per year salary, Campbell seems poised to accept a salary reduction. At 36-years-old, Campbell also seems like a prime candidate to search for a contending team to take one last shot at winning a Stanley Cup. For those reasons, Campbell may be available on a short deal next off-season.
However, Campbell has become a mentor and insulator for 2015 Calder-winner Aaron Ekblad. Of his 1460 minutes of time-on-ice last season, Campbell spent 1229 with Ekblad – a whopping 84 percent of his ice time. As Ekblad is the clear centrepiece of the Panthers defense, it’s possible the team will be motivated to re-sign Campbell to maintain protection for their still-young star.
Despite his lacking size and no semblance of a physical game, Campbell remains a highly-skilled offensive defensive with quarterback skills. He’s at his best with the puck on his stick and his passing continues to be strong.
Playing extreme top-pair minutes, Campbell has showcased a highly-developed puck managing style. His Corsi For impact is excellent and his work as a shot suppressor is elite. Campbell’s offensive contributions have waned but his ability to control the puck makes him an ideal partner for a defender with offensive skills. If Campbell decides to take one last shot at a deep playoff run and is willing to play for less money, any playoff team would benefit by adding the highly-experienced blueliner.
8. Dan Hamhuis – Vancouver Canucks
Left Defense – 32 years old – 4.5 million
Likelihood of free agency: 7/10
The Vancouver Canucks are at a crossroads. The Sedin brothers and goaltender Ryan Miller are all nearing the end of their illustrious careers. Long-time Canucks like Ryan Kesler and Kevin Bieksa have moved along. This is a team transitioning to a youth movement. As the Canucks look to get younger, they may wish to keep Hamhuis around as a solid veteran to mentor younger defensemen. More likely, the team will be willing to move on from the 32-year-old, who will likely seek another contract in the $4 million range.
Often described as savvy, Hamhuis has represented Team Canada at the World Championships five times and won gold with the Canadian Olympic Team in 2014 (albeit, in a small role). Hamhuis has tons of experience and is described as a sound, shutdown defender, who can log big minutes and reliably move the puck out of the defensive zone. He isn’t physical, which limits his success against bigger NHL forwards at times, and his offensive contributions are minimal – he’s cleared 30 points twice in his 11 NHL seasons.
Hamhuis’ advanced stats present an interesting mix. The Canucks defender doesn’t pile up big point totals but does contribute a high level of primary assists and primary points. His Corsi impact is top-four quality. This suggests that Hamhuis is best-suited as a team’s third defenseman, rather than a top-pairing option. Hamhuis has an elite impact on his team’s Goals For per 60 minutes, making him the type of complementary addition on defense that contending teams crave.
7. Jason Demers – Dallas Stars
Right Defense – 27 years old – $3.4 million
Likelihood of free agency: 6/10
Next off-season, the Stars will be faced with finding new deals for defensemen Alex Goligoski, Jordie Benn, and Jason Demers, along with RFA deals for Valeri Nichushkin and Brett Ritchie. Of the group of free agents, Goligoski will command the largest salary – a problem for a Stars team within $2.3 million of the salary cap. The team will be forced to make a decision on Demers and there’s a chance he’ll test free agency.
If Demers does become available, the 27-year-old represents sneaky value as an underrated offensive defenseman with upside. Demers has developed a reputation as a slick passer and confident puck-mover with a good shot, strong mobility, and a willingness to play physically. He’s averaged 0.33 points per game in the NHL while never receiving more than 19:30 minutes of ice time per game. With greater responsibility, the still-young defender has potential to develop further.
Demers’ underlying stats show the impact the blueliner is capable of creating. His individual production is top-pair quality, especially in primary assists. Demers’ also boasts a tremendously positive impact in puck possession, verging on elite in Corsi For and Corsi Against rates. Though he’s been given only bottom pairing minutes so far in his career, Demers’ profile suggests that the Stars’ defender deserves a bigger role. The Stars are set on defense, boasting a top-three of Goligoski, John Klingberg, and Johnny Oduya, so Demers may need to move to a new team to show off his full potential.
6. Brent Seabrook – Chicago Blackhawks
Right Defense – 30 years old – $5.8 million
Likelihood of free agency: 7/10
Seabrook has been the subject of trade rumours due mostly to the Blackhawks’ cap structure – the team has long-term contracts with stars Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, Artem Anisimov, Duncan Keith, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Corey Crawford. Long part of the mini-dynasty’s core group in Chicago, Seabrook’s large salary may restrict Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman from finding the room to ink a new deal with the Chicago stalwart.
If available in free agency, the 30-year-old defenseman will be hotly pursued. Seabrook is known as a hulking, all-around blueliner who plays without panic and can handle huge minutes. He has a strong shot, is a capable passer, and has amassed more than 30 points seven times in his career, scoring at a 0.42 points per game rate.
Despite Seabrook’s playoffs experience and positive scouting reports, his advanced stats profile keeps him out of the top five 2016 free agents. Seabrook’s individual production is approximately top-pair quality, particularly his primary assists work. In terms of possession impact, Seabrook’s profile is less enticing. Despite good work creating shot attempts, Seabrook struggles to prevent shot attempts against. In fact, he registers below bottom pair quality in Corsi Against per 60 minutes. While Seabrook’s offensive reputation is well-deserved, his defensive work is less inspiring. Still, expect Seabrook to draw major interest as the 2015-16 season wears on.
Written by Sean Tierney, who can be found @SeanTierneyTSS