With the bye weeks starting this Sunday for a third of the league, few pundits expected more trades to happen coming into the weekend. That answer would be wrong! Minnesota and Carolina decided to make a 1-for 1 deal that has left more than a few people scratching their heads. Nino Niederreiter and Victor Rask traded was not anticipated.
Minnesota is teetering on the bubble of a wildcard spot while the Carolina Hurricanes (despite winning 7 of 10) are still seven points out of a playoff spot. However, the Wild felt they needed to do something right now.
Analysis can be fleeting here. However, it notably is ominous when one team trades away a player that is a shell of his former self for a rather serviceable and productive forward.
Trade Impact Of Victor Rask To Carolina
Again, this deal caught many off guard a bit as talk the past few days centered around anything but a forward-for-forward swap. Even yesterday, few saw this coming. Rask was far from a breakout offensive threat but he enjoyed two seasons in the 45-50 point range.
Victor Rask started to decline during the 2017-18 season. His final 50 games saw just 21 points scored. Shot rates started to drop by about half a shot a contest. Possession relatives began to drop into the negative at about -3% compared to the rest of Carolina. Ice time dipped by nearly two minutes per contest.
2018-19 brought only more injury and poor performance for Rask. When he returned, his role had been reduced further to a bottom six forward. Missing the first seven weeks of the season hurt but when the numbers did not bounce back, that was problematic. Six points in 26 games caused Carolina to drop Victor Rask’s minutes to 12 minutes a night. Defensively, his relatives fell to -8% below team average. Shot generation fell to around one per game. A change was needed.
Enter what occurred on Thursday. Victor Rask only makes $4 million a year but it was a contract Carolina desperately wanted to rid themselves of.
I made a WAR lineup creator tool (try it: https://t.co/v40XICk9yk).
Before the Rask trade, it projected MIN’s roster to earn 80 standings points.
With Rask, the lineup drops to 76 points (not ideal!)— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey)
Many thanks to Sean Tierney as always. The fact remains that Rask maybe finds the offensive spark he had. However, his early role appears to be on the third or fourth line (third if Charlie Coyle moves to wing). Minnesota hopes he can win faceoffs and contribute offensively. His drop to 45% of faceoff wins needs to be addressed by Wild coaching staff.
Minnesota hopes a nearly 26-year-old forward can regain his form. His defense and shot metrics may get a boost. But wait, there is more.
Impact Of Nino Niederreiter In Carolina
Unlike Rask, Niederreiter has been healthy this season. His numbers dropped similarly in 2017-18 and again this year. However, those drops were not as drastic as Rask’s. His overall ice time has dropped only about 25 to 30 seconds from his last three seasons. Niederreiter banished on the fourth line was the final straw.
Apparently, compete level was important with both teams and Bruce Boudreau thought Nino Niederreiter was expendable. The writing was on the wall. Carolina needs a boost as their power play was under 17% on the season. The former Minnesota forward scored 15 goals in his last two seasons with the Wild. That kind of scoring is desperately needed.
As for metrics, Niederreiter still performed on the positive side compared to relative average. He was nearly 3% above Minnesota’s team average and yet his PDO was just under 95. If any regression were to occur, his numbers should have started to creep upward. They already were. The winger notched a point in each of his last three contests. One could see his fortunes were starting to turn. That was in spite of seeing just under 12 minutes of ice time per contest then.
Nino Niederreiter could play anywhere in the middle six and see some power play time as well. His potential upside appears to be a 50-60 point player with 12-16 power play points. Can Carolina tap into that better than Minnesota could? It is an excellent question as Nino Niederreiter joins a team that has underperformed most of the year. It is also a team which has started to bounce back. Buckle up because El Nino is coming and he provides a 5-6 point positive impact in points standings.