Arizona Coyotes 2015-16 Season Primer

Next up in our 2015-16 NHL season primer series – the Arizona Coyotes.

2014-15 Record: 24-50-8, 56 points (Last Place in Pacific Division and 29th overall)
2014-15 Outcome: Missed playoffs

Total Cap hit: $57,574,704
Total Salary: $53,007,444
Salary Cap Space: $13,825,296
Source: Generel Fanager

In: John Scott, LW (FA – SJ), Derek Smith, D (FA-Europe), Alex Grant, D (FA – Ott), Dakota Mermis, D (FA), Dustin Jeffrey, C/LW (FA – NYI), Antoine Vermette, C (FA – Chi), Anders Lindback, G (FA – Buf), Zbynek Michalek, D (FA – StL), Steve Downie, RW/LW (FA – Pit), Brad Richardson, C/W (FA – Van), Boyd Gordon, C (T – Edm), Nicklas Grossmann, D (T – Phi), Chris Pronger, D (T – Phi), Matthias Plachta, C/W (FA-Europe)

Out: Tye McGinn, LW/RW (FA – TB, Mark Visentin, G (FA-Minors), Justin Hodgman, C/RW (FA – StL), John Moore, D (FA – NJ), Mark Arcobello, W/C (FA – Tor), Mike McKenna, G (FA – FLA), Viktor Tikhonov, C/W (FA – Chi), Lauri Korpikoski, RW/LW (T – Edm), Sam Gagner, RW/C (T – Phi), Alexandre Bolduc, C/LW (FA-Europe), Patrick McNeill, D (FA-Europe)
Source: Sports Forecaster

The Arizona Coyotes spent their financially disparaged years following Jerry Moyes’ bankruptcy scandal operating above expectations. The team met with incredible success while on a budget due to luck and hard work, but the 2014-2015 season finally saw their numbers fall back to Earth.

Under new ownership, the Pacific Division club plans to build a perennial cup contender — but they’re trying to do it the right way, which means drafting and developing with patience (and no shortage of pain). That means the 2015-2016 season will be mediocre at best, and downright bad at worst.

Of course, that’s not to say there isn’t plenty to look forward to for the Pacific Division club this year. Their defense is going to be one of the most fun to watch, with a game-changing player in Oliver Ekman-Larsson leading an intriguing young defensive corps with a smattering of first rounders (Connor Murphy, Brandon Gormley) and recently acquired prospects like Philip Samuelsson and Klas Dahlbeck. Michael Stone is shaping up to potentially be the physically dominant top-four pairing defenseman that teams like the Chicago Blackhawks covet. Stone’s possession stats were among some of Arizona’s best in the 2014-2015 campaign. There’s always room for a player like Dakota Mermis to earn himself a good, long look at the NHL level.

On offense, it’s still hard to tell how the Coyotes will perform. Their best-case scenario will be to have a season like the Calgary Flames did last year, where a young Sean Monahan and rookie Johnny Gaudreau managed to serve as a true top line despite expectations that they would need time to develop into that kind of pairing. Realistically, this won’t happen for Arizona just yet — but keep an eye out for whomever among their young prospect corps manages to earn a spot on the NHL roster. Max Domi is garnering attention around the league in his first season as a pro, and the possibility to see him and Anthony Duclair sharing a line — especially if the duo are given gentle giant Martin Hanzal as their pivot — could be what steals the team a few wins they aren’t expected to earn based on stat line projections. Watching to see where sophomore forward Tobias Rieder settles in with the lineup could be pivotal, as well. If he proves to be a true two-way talent in Arizona’s middle six, they’ll have an Andrew Cogliano-esque player who’s only 22; as the rest of their forward prospects develop and move into the NHL, he could be an integral part of their rebuild.

Goaltending, like with Anaheim, will be the biggest question mark.

Both Mike Smith and Anders Lindback have very little to show for their NHL careers in the name of consistency. They each saw massive regression when playing for the Tampa Bay Lightning, coming off seasons with good goaltending coaching (Smith from the Stars and Andy Moog, Lindback from the Predators with Mitch Korn) and going to a controversial mentor in  Frantz Jean for at least a portion of their careers. Each netminder had career seasons upon leaving Tampa Bay — Lindback finding his bounce-back in Buffalo, Smith in Arizona — and they’re each looking to find consistency next year. Whether they can do that or not remains to be seen, but they will have possibly the biggest impact on the team of all the question marks leading up to the year.

Trending Up

Tobias Rieder (LW/RW) – At 22, Tobias Rieder was one of the brightest spots on a pretty dismal Coyotes roster in 2014-2015 — and he’s poised to only get better next year. The former fourth round pick has already shown flashes of being one of the most effective two-way forwards in the NHL, and that’s pretty rare for a rookie who also manages to score and hold his own against top competition. In a less-than-ideal year to make the lineup for the majority of the season, Rieder took his unexpected top six role and played it with all the confidence and efficiency of a tenured vet.

This summer was likely spent by Rieder focusing on improving his shooting accuracy, something that made the smart, wily winger (who’s versatile enough to play all three forward positions, something the Coyotes took advantage of) a 13-goal scorer instead of a potential 20-goal guy. If his abnormally (6.9%) low shooting percentage goes up at all, his style of play indicates that he’ll see all of his numbers go up — and as the rookie who set a league record for the shortest time between consecutive short-handed goals last year, that’s good news.

Connor Murphy (RD) – Using Connor Murphy here is kind of cheating, because half of Arizona’s defensive corps are trending up. It’s likely that Murphy will be the blue liner who sees the most improvement over his first full NHL season. Like with Rieder, the lanky right shot defenseman had to spend his first pro year adjusting on a pretty underperforming roster.

Murphy’s game, when he was focused and thriving, was top four pairing material. If he can establish some consistency and work on improving his decision-making, when it comes to puck play vs. physical intimidation, he could finish out the 2015-2016 campaign looking like a bona fide NHL talent. The raw materials are certainly there, and both he and Rieder are in their final years of their ELCs — look for both skaters to show why they deserve more than just a show-me bridge deal.

Trending Down

Shane Doan (RW) – It’s hard to say that Shane Doan is ‘trending down’, because Captain Coyote is ageless in the eyes of the Phoenix community. It’s becoming more and more clear, though, that the veteran winger is nearing the end of his career arc on the ice — and it’s showing in both his scoring and his energy levels.

Doan is still in fantastic shape, and the role he played last season — a physical, demanding presence who sheltered linemate Tobias Rieder during plays to give the younger skater a chance to establish his game — was exactly what the team needed. Long-time Coyotes fans remember Doan, though, as the guy who nearly always scored 25-30 goals a season. Now, he’s closer to the 10-15 goal range, and that’s a hard pill to swallow.

This is the last year of Doan’s contract, and there’s been speculation that the 38-year old veteran will potentially look to spend a year trying to win a Stanley Cup. That could still happen, but in a crucial turn-around year, the Coyotes have made it pretty clear that the long-tenured captain will stick around to help transition the team and usher in a new group of young leaders. That’s still valuable — but on the ice, Doan is still a diminishing value player.

Antoine Vermette (C) – The addition of Antoine Vermette in the off-season was partially a move to solidify the team’s middle six centre depth until their pivot prospects are able to hold their own at the NHL level, but most of what he brings to the table is security for the fans. Coming off his first Stanley Cup championship, the 32-year old veteran is a familiar face and a great locker room presence to have around what could be one of the youngest and most transitional rosters in the NHL next year.

When it comes to the renowned two-way talent that Vermette has always been cited for, though, the veteran centre lacks the punch he used to pack. His defensive game has slipped a bit, even relative to his on-ice teammates in Arizona. His scoring is there, but the consistency no longer is. Many are excited to see him back in Arizona after scoring a slew of game-winning goals during the playoffs this spring, but a third or fourth line role (and a healthy scratch for a handful of games) suggest that Vermette won’t be capable of playing the role it seems people perceive him as being capable of playing.

That’s not to say that Vermette isn’t still a capable NHLer; by all accounts, he certainly is. As mentioned above, he’s also still a great voice to have in the locker room and a comforting presence for a fanbase that needs its share of comforts — but when it comes to players that we can expect to underperform next year, this is certainly one of them.

Trade Deadline Outlook:

For the Coyotes, nearly everyone can go.

Of course, some players likely won’t go. It’s hard to say that a player is unmovable, something that Grantland’s Sean McIndoe touched on earlier in the season (can be read here) — if the Edmonton Oilers want to give up Taylor Hall, Connor McDavid, Cam Talbot, and Darnell Nurse for Oliver Ekman-Larsson and a first round pick, it would be crazy to say no — but guys like Ekman-Larsson, Rieder, Max Domi, Christian Dvorak, and Dylan Strome probably aren’t going anywhere.

Any player with only one year left on his deal, though, has to be considered as a potentially movable piece. Kyle Chipchura? If a team wants him, he could easily be gone by Spring. Craig Cunningham? Tough to admit it, but probably the same. It seems probable that one of Cunningham or Shinnimin will head elsewhere if a team wants them, since they play a largely similar role for the team. If a team out there is crazy enough to want Nicklas Grossman, even he could head out. Don’t be surprised if an improved Anders Lindback is moved if they can get some value.

The most intriguing position to watch at the deadline, though, will be the team’s blue line.

Brandon Gormley is on a last-chance prove it deal with the Coyotes, who insisted on inking him to his qualifying offer in order to stay with the team this year. He lost his roster spot to AHL mainstay Andrew Campbell last year, and that raised a lot of warning flags. If the 23 year old defenseman can’t find a way to stick with the team long-term, he could very easily be sent elsewhere.

If the team ends up playing above their expected level, though, don’t be surprised if the Coyotes become buyers to an extent. If it looks like they could be a bubble team, they have more than enough in the cupboard among their prospects to make a move in order to finish the season a few places higher than they need. The team is determined to show that they’re staying in the desert, and they’ve got a fanbase that deserves the best season possible without sacrificing the rebuild — if they have a Calgary-esque season (or even a Florida-esque season), expect the team to address that.

Written by Catherine Silverman, who can be found on twitter @CataCarryOn

Potential line combinations, defensive pairings, and goalies.

Mikkel Boedker – Antoine Vermette – Shane Doan
Max Domi – Martin Hanzal – Anthony Duclair
Steve Downie – Boyd Gordon – Tobias Rieder
Kyle Chipchura – Joe Vitale – Brad Richardson
Craig Cunningham

Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Zbynek Michalek
Nicklas Grossman – Michael Stone
Connor Murphy – Klas Dahlbeck
Brandon Gormley

Mike Smith
Anders Lindback

Roster chart from Sports Forecaster.

Some top Coyotes prospect lists heading into the season.

1. Max Domi: Right Wing – 5′ 10″ / 200 lbs – It caught many by surprise when Domi was returned to the London Knights for the season, but in hind sight it was the right move. Arizona struggled all season and it could have had a negative impact on Domi’s confidence and development. Instead, he enjoyed a monster coming out party on one of the biggest stages at the World Junior Championship, as he led Canada to a Gold medal. While his junior career is over, don’t rule out the possibility he sees some time in the AHL adjusting to the pro game. There is no sense in rushing this blue-chip prospect until his performance demands a top-six roster spot with the NHL club.

2. Dylan Strome Center – Center – 6′ 3″ / 185 lbs – The top two selections were a foregone conclusion and everybody knew that the draft really started with pick number three. In that sense, Strome was a first overall selection. Arizona had several trade offers for the third overall selection, but elected to retain the pick and select “their guy” in Strome. He addresses an organizational need at centre perfectly, as the OHL scoring leader is a bona fide franchise calibre player. Expect Strome to be returned to Erie where he will centre last year’s rookie of the year and 2016 draft prospect Alex DeBrincat.

3. Brendan Perlini: Left Wing/Center – 6′ 2″ / 212 lbs – Perlini was so impressive in camp last year, he was in serious contention to make the team until an injury cost him his chance. He was returned to Niagara where he catapulted the struggling Ice Dogs offence, centering a dominate line with Josh Ho-Sang and Carter Verhaeghe. He already possesses NHL size, skating and shooting attributes and is a legitimate contender to crack the opening night roster. It is not so clear that he will see more than nine games and like Domi was, could easily be returned to junior. He is close.

4. Anthony Duclair: Left Wing – 5′ 11″ / 185 – Duclair was the key piece in the Keith Yandle trade and will be reunited with Max Domi, where the two looked sensational together winning Gold with team Canada at the World Juniors. Duclair was impressive in his early season audition with the Rangers before being returned to junior. He is a streaky scorer who has a tendency to endure long streaks of all-or-nothing type goal scoring.

5. Christian Dvorak: Center/Left Wing – 5′ 11″ / 185 lbs – American born Dvorak (No relation to former NHLer Radek Dvorak) is the Coyotes fastest rising star after enjoying a breakout season playing on London Knights top line with teammate Max Domi and fourth overall selection Mitch Marner. An injury the previous season cost him most of his draft year and perhaps allowed him to fly under the radar. He should be returned for a final season of junior with London who have been loading up on talent like Max Jones and Matt Tkachuk and will be Memorial Cup favorites.

Expanded Top 10 Coyotes prospects with videos and stats can be read here.

A look at the Arizona Coyotes drafting from 2010 to 2015.

Arizona Coyotes 2014-15 players stats

A look at the Arizona Coyotes 2015-16 schedule