Buffalo Sabres 2015-16 Season Primer

Projected 2015-16 Range: 7th in the Atlantic, lottery pick contender
2014-15 Record: 23-51-8, 54 points (Last Place in the Atlantic Division and 30th overall)
2014-15 Outcome: Missed playoffs

Total Cap hit: $59,382,855
Total Salary: $64,628,531
Salary Cap Space: $12,017,145
Source: General Fanager

In: Carlo Colaiacovo, D (FA – Phi), Bobby Sanguinetti, D (FA – Van), Matt Donovan, D (FA – NYI), Jason Akeson, RW (FA – Phi), Cal O’Reilly, C (FA – Van), Robin Lehner, G (T – Ott), David Legwand, C/LW (T – Ott), Ryan O’Reilly, C/W (T – Col), Jamie McGinn, RW/LW (T – Col), Dan Bylsma, Head Coach (Named), Evan Rodrigues, RW (FA)

Out: Matt Ellis, C/LW (FA-Minors), Andre Benoit, D (FA – StL), Tyson Strachan, D (FA – Min), Cody Hodgson, W/C (FA – Nas), Zac Dal)pe, RW/C (FA – Min), Matt Hackett, G (FA – Ana), Anders Lindback, G (FA – Ari), Mikhail Grigorenko, W/C (T – Col), Nikita Zadorov, D (T – Col), J.T. Compher, LW/C (T – Col), Ted Nolan, Head Coach (Fired)

Source: Sports Forecaster 

Outlook for the Season:

It was a season to forget and an off-season of enormous success. GM Tim Murray’s Sabres sleepwalked through the 2014-15 season, then turned in one of the NHL’s best off-seasons, giving hope for the 2015-16 season. 

On the ice last season, the lineup was atrocious. The team finished last in goals for (161) and next-to-last in goals against (274), which eventually cost Ted Nolan his head coaching job. Nolan wasn’t the only one to blame though. The roster was punchless – Tyler Ennis led the team with 46 points. Winger Matt Moulson (41 points) was the only other Sabres skater to crack 40 points. Defensively, things were even worse. Nikita Zadorov, Tyler Myers, and Andrej Meszaros led the team defensively despite posting point shares near zero. All three are no longer on the roster. 

But GMTM (Tim Murray’s social media pseudonym) orchestrated a number of off-season moves that put the Sabres in a strong position to enjoy a much more productive season in 2015-16. 

The biggest splash was Murray’s acquisition of centre Ryan O’Reilly from the Colorado Avalanche. GMTM surrendered talented young forward Mikhail Grigorenko, Zadorov, prospect J.T. Compher, and the 31st overall pick in the 2015 draft. Then, Murray signed O’Reilly to a buyout proof seven-year deal.

 O’Reilly comes as advertised.

He’s capable of handling first-line minutes and supplies at least second-line quality offense along with very reasonable puck possession rates. O’Reilly instantly becomes the best NHLer on the roster and solidifies the the middle of the Sabres’ top line.

Then, although there was much disappointment when the Oilers won the draft lottery and snagged McDavid, the Sabres landed generational talent Jack Eichel. His scouting report boasts about his ability to alter the pace of play and improve everyone around him. Eichel is a virtual lock to earn top-six minutes in Buffalo and will probably record more points than any of Buffalo’s top scorers last season. 

As if two stars into the top-six wasn’t enough, the Sabres will finally have Evander Kane on the ice this season after acquiring the media-friendly winger from the Winnipeg Jets last season. Kane’s abilities when on the ice are clear:

He’s a first line scorer and an excellent shot generator. He boasts virtually no defensive instincts at this point in his career, but the Sabres will gladly take an elite goal scorer on their top line. 

The final major roster change is new goaltender Robin Lehner, snagged from the Ottawa Senators (along with bottom-six, dead-legged plugger David Legwand) in exchange for one of Buffalo’s first round choices. Lehner ranks 64th in adjusted save percentage out of the 96 goalies to play 240 minutes since 2012, so the Sabres are gambling that the still-young netminder will eventually develop into a serviceable option in goal. Lehner finished the year on the injured reserve, recovering from a concussion, but he’s expected to take the crease for the Sabres to start the 2015-16 season. 

In all, the Sabres will be much stronger offensively and should be slightly better in goal. The team did not address its major issues on defense and Zach Bogosian will be in tough to lead a sub-NHL level defense corps this season. Expect the Sabres to be more competitive, and to score more goals, but don’t look for this team to challenge for a playoff berth just yet.

Trending Up:

Robin Lehner – Lehner gets his long-awaited shot at starting next season. He should receive enough offensive support to have a chance at winning. O’Reilly, Kane, Eichel, Moulson, and Ennis make up a reasonable group of scorers, but the Sabres have such a porous defense that Lehner is sure to face a barrage of shots each night. If Lehner can find a way to get into a groove facing a lot of rubber, the Sabres should score enough to give him a chance at a reasonable first season as a starter. 

Jamie McGinn – a throw-in from Colorado in the O’Reilly deal, McGinn carries some sneaky utility.

He’s a capable second-tier scorer and has can do some work as a shot generator. He’ll skate in much better offensive situations this season and should score 20 goals in Buffalo.

Trending Down:

The Defense – already an awful unit, Buffalo’s top three player in defensive point shares were Zadorov, Myers, and Meszaros. Without any reasonable replacements, the league’s worst defense actually got worse this off-season. Expect the Sabres to surrender plenty of shots on goal this season and for Robin Lehner to be asked to bail the team out regularly.

Josh Gorges – Always a below average puck manager relative to his teammates, Gorges sunk to the bottom of an awful Sabres club, managing a 39.3% Corsi For percentage, which was just more than seven percent worse than team average. He’s likely to be asked to continue logging heavy minutes (~22 minutes per game last year) and may suffer even further.

Trade Deadline Outlook:  

Expect the Sabres to stay a little more competitive a little longer into the season.  This group shouldn’t finish dead last in the NHL again. The offensive pieces are in place. Along with some development from Lehner in goal, the Sabres should win to surpass the likes of Arizona, Edmonton, Toronto, and Carolina in the standings.

Projected 2015-16 Range: 7th in the Atlantic, lottery pick contender

Written by Sean Tierney, who can be found @SeanTierneyTSS

Sabres: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Potential line combinations, defensive pairings, and goalies.

Evander Kane – Ryan O’Reilly – Tyler Ennis
Matt Moulson – Jack Eichel – Zemgus Girgensons
Marcus Foligno – Sam Reinhart – Brian Gionta
Johan Larsson – David Legwand – Jamie McGinn
Cody McCormick

Josh Gorges – Zach Bogosian
Mike Weber – Rasmus Ristolainen
Jake McCabe – Mark Pysyk
Carlo Colaiacovo

Robin Lehner
Chad Johnson

Source: Sports Forecaster

Sabres: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Some top Sabres prospect lists heading into the season.

1. Jack Eichel: Center – 6’2” / 194 lbs – Eichel won the Hobey Baker award as a college freshman, took BU to the Frozen Four Championship, won the Bean Pot, and was the focal point of the USA World Junior team. After a dominant season on the ice he continued to be a headliner after turning heads at the NHL scouting combine before ultimately being selected second overall by the Sabres. He will debut in the NHL this season and begin his path to shattering Sabres all-time scoring records.

2. Sam Reinhart: Center – 6’1” / 190 lbs – Suddenly the Sabres have a glut of stars at the centre position in Eichel, Reinhart, Ryan O’Reilly, Zemgus Girgensons, and David Legwand. Some of these players will be forced to the wing sooner or later, sooner if Reinhart shows ready to break into the NHL out of training camp. It is unlikely he would be returned to junior again, but then again, the Sabres should be in no rush to push Reinhart until he is ready and forces his way onto the roster.

3. Jake McCabe: Defense – 6’1” / 210 lbs – McCabe continues to make strides towards becoming a factor on the Sabres blue line. In his first full season of pro, he scored 29 points in 57 games in the AHL with Rochester. He has had a couple cups of coffee with the big club, nine games in total with one assist, but more impressive is he has only a minus 3 rating in that time playing on some woeful Sabres rosters. The former team USA Captain at the world juniors has leadership qualities and puck moving skills. Some more seasoning in the AHL would not hurt, but he is close.

4. Nick Baptiste: Right Wing – 6’1” / 190 lbs – Baptiste was traded to Erie early in the season and his offensive support on a stacked Otters team went almost unnoticed. He provided some huge timely goals in the playoffs, driving the Otters past the London Knights and Greyhounds to the finals. The move from Sudbury helped his development as the Wolves won fewer games than the Sabres, which is saying something!

5. Justin Bailey: Right Wing – 6’3” / 202 lbs – The Buffalo native matured in his third season in the OHL and the trade from Kitchener to the Soo may have helped, as he was part of a strong team in Sault Ste. Marie. His offensive production has always been present, but Bailey took on some leadership qualities and rounded out his game this season and was impressive. He is trending up and was a standout at the development camp.

Expanded Top 10 Sabres prospects with videos and stats can be read here.

Sabres: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule

A look at the Buffalo Sabres drafting from 2010 to 2015.

Sabres: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Buffalo Sabres 2014-15 player stats.

Sabres: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule

A look at the Buffalo Sabres 2015-16 schedule.

Sabres: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule