It is time to start getting into the updated portion of free agents trending upward. There is a chance that some of these free agents may even change addresses come the trade deadline.
This spans forwards, defensemen, and goaltenders as well. Typically, we will start our focus on unrestricted free agents. Before the trade deadline, trade commodities trending will likely be explored as well.
Anyway, let’s start again.
Free Agent Forwards Trending Down
Ilya Mikheyev (RW) – Toronto Maple Leafs
There was this great start from Ilya Mikheyev. The Russian forward has just one goal in his last nine games and no helpers either. The point-a-game start feels like a thing of the past.
He has 11 points in 22 games on the season as the Toronto Maple Leafs continue to use Mikheyev in a transitional middle-six role. He is shooting at his normal rate of about 2.57 shots per game. If he had even somewhat sustained his start, Mikheyev might have seen more of a boost in his next deal. Now, that boost could be stifled somewhat.
Chris Tierney (C) – Ottawa Senators
Now, Chris Tierney is another free agent who has seen his numbers take a downturn. It can be argued easily that those numbers have done so for two seasons and not just one for the Ottawa Senators. His $3.5 million AAV is expected to take somewhat of a drop.
How much one may ask? That remains unknown. Tierney is a couple of seasons off from 48 and 37 point campaigns. Those seasons featured point rates of more than 0.5 per contest. This year Tierney is treading around one point every three games. Even that has been tough to stay close to.
Frank Vatrano (C, LW) – Florida Panthers
The forward looked like he was set up for a good 2021-22 season. He had 18 goals in 56 games for the Florida Panthers last year. Then the Panthers added even more depth. That seemed to send Vatrano further down the depth chart and then his numbers suffered more.
His $2.533 million AAV was likely to go up because he had 25+ goal potential. However, eight goals in 41 games along with downward trends in shots per game, ice time, etc. is a definite detriment. Frank The Tank has seen his next contract value “tank”. Literally.
Free Agent Defensemen Trending Down
Danny DeKeyser – Detroit Red Wings
One player that may have been trending the minute he signed a contract was Danny DeKeyser. The Detroit Red Wings defenseman had at least been playing over 20 minutes a night until last year. Even then, Detroit realized that the blueliner still was not playing any better. His $5 million AAV expires soon enough.
DeKeyser is playing just 18:36 a night which is a full 2:15 less than his career average. Even then, his possession metric is a full 3% less than his career mark. Zone deployment is about the same as well. It is just one of those contracts where the production just kept going down. This year, he has just four assists in 41 games. The giant trend down continues.
Rasmus Ristolainen – Philadelphia Flyers
It has become a lost season for the Philadelphia Flyers and Rasmus Ristolainen is a bit of a poster child. Defensively, he has never been the greatest in his career. His possession percentage (47.3) has improved slightly over his normal numbers (44.9). At $5.4 million AAV, Ristolainen plays anything like that rate.
Ristolainen averaged at least a point every other game before the pandemic. Now, it is more like a point every 3.5 games or so. Part of it is because Ristolainen plays little on the power play. Part of it is a decline offensively. He is averaging just 1.5 shots per game. While the other peripherals are good, everything else is trending in the wrong direction again.
Free Agent Goaltender Trending Down
Jack Campbell – Toronto Maple Leafs
Unfortunately, the feel-good story that is Jack Campbell and the Toronto Maple Leafs has taken on a little water so to speak. The goaltender still sports an excellent 23-8-4 record even during this rough patch. To think a few weeks ago, he was trending upward.
Overall, Campbell has endured three rough starts in his last six games and two “Really Bad Starts” in that span. The Maple Leafs’ goaltender has had seven in 38 starts on the season. The problem is too many have come lately. It has been interesting but even his goals saved above average has dropped to 12.1. That is a concern to any future deal.
Next up, will be the debut of a new column. “Trade Value Trending Up And Down, Eastern Conference Edition.”