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Pucks In Depth

Pucks In Depth: Hampus Lindholm Signs … Canadiens Playing Over Their Heads?

Todd Cordell 10/28/2016
5 Min Read
Hampus Lindholm signs six-year deal with the Anaheim Ducks ... Carey Price leading the Canadiens to a hot start
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Hampus Lindholm signs six-year contract with the Ducks …

After months of negotiating, Hampus Lindholm signs with the Anaheim Ducks, agreeing on a long-term contract extension.

On Thursday the two sides signed off on a six-year deal worth an annual average of $5.25 million per season.

Those in the east who don’t stay up to watch the west coast games and are unfamiliar with Lindholm may think that’s a lot of money to give to a restricted free agent, whose career high in points is 34, but I believe Lindholm is worth every penny (and more).

Lindholm is just 22 years of age and is already Anaheim’s best defenseman by a country mile. His point totals don’t jump off the stage, but he is more than capable of contributing in that regard and he has proven to be an elite play driver. Despite playing heavy minutes against opposing team’s best players, the Ducks have been significantly better with Lindholm on the ice as opposed to when he is on the bench catching his breath.

Screen Shot 2016-10-27 at 3.02.18 PM

As you can see the Ducks have been an elite team with Lindholm on the ice and average at best without him. They generate more shot attempts and goals per 60 with Lindholm on the ice, while also allowing fewer shot attempts and goals. Very few players are so influential at both sides of the ice, but Lindholm is one of the few capable of making such an impact. When you factor in he plays against the likes of Anze Kopitar, Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, Johnny Gaudreau, etc. on a nightly basis, those totals are even more impressive.

Lindholm is unquestionably one of the best blue liners in hockey and, at just 22, there is still room for a growth. $5.25 million AAV is a steal for what he brings to the table and that dollar figure is only going to look better in time. This is a fantastic deal for the Ducks.

Montreal Canadiens off to a 7-0-1 start …

The new-look Montreal Canadiens are off to a fantastic 7-0-1 start and have many fans wondering if this could be their year.

Alex Radulov and Shea Weber have made strong first impressions, and the return of Carey Price certainly makes them a much better team, but I’d be hesitant to call them legitimate Stanley Cup contenders just yet.

The Canadiens’ +16 goal differential would have you believe they are absolutely dominating opposing teams, but that hasn’t been the case. Far from it, actually.

At 5 v 5 the Canadiens are controlling less than 50% of the shot attempts and ~47% of the scoring chances. For comparison sake, the one win Buffalo Sabres are getting an almost identical share of the chances and we see how that’s working out for them. The Sabres have less talent, and some injury problems, but you get the point.

If the Canadiens have been getting out shot and out chanced more often than not then why are they 7-0-1?

Their stars are playing like stars but they’ve also been getting a lot of puck luck. At 5 v 5 they’re shooting almost 10%, which is a very high number, while Carey Price and Al Montoya have posted a ludicrous .960 save percentage at full-strength. As good as Price is, those numbers aren’t even sustainable for him, so you could imagine how much Montoya will regress over time.

The Canadiens are not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination, but their record is deceiving. If the Habs don’t start getting more shots, and chances, the wins won’t be there anywhere close to as frequently as they have been thus far; even with Price between the pipes on a nightly basis.

Written by Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell)

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TAGGED:Al MontoyaAlexander RadulovAnaheim DucksCarey PriceHampus LindholmMontreal CanadiensShea Weber
By Todd Cordell
Analytics consultant for @Kelowna_Rockets. Devils & Flames for Hockeybuzz, NHL for @MyNHLTradeRumor and EliteFantasy

Offer Sheet Compensation

<$1.54M no comp
$1.54M – $2.34M: 3rd
$2.34M – $4.68M: 2nd
$4.68M – $7.02M: 1st, 3rd
$7.02M – $9.36M: 1st, 2nd, 3rd
$9.36M – $11.7M: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
$11.7M+: 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st,

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June 23rd: Last possible day for the Stanley Cup Final
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