Sports betting has evolved a lot over the years and statistics now play a big role in helping bettors make profitable decisions. Betting is no longer gut-based or solely reliant on luck. Surely, a lot of the time, players will rely on their intuition when placing wagers. However, if you are to boost your odds of winning an NHL bet, advanced statistics and data analysis can help you quite a lot.
Bettors today use data and analytics to gain deep insights into everything from player performance and capabilities to team success, game dynamics, and much more. In this post, we will explore how you can use advanced statistics to improve your sports betting.
What Are Advanced Statistics?
Advanced statistics or sabermetrics are one step ahead of traditional metrics like wins, averages, and losses. Most bettors these days focus their betting on the simplest data. They check the team’s former performances and the average and bet on a hunch. Well, advanced statistics take this one step further. Bettors who use advanced statistics look at the data more thoroughly and as such, they can make more informed decisions for bets that often pay off.
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Examples of Advanced Statistics
Let’s take a look at a few examples of advanced statistics:
- Wins Above Replacement (WAR). This is used in baseball and estimates how much a player contributes to their team overall. It takes into account the defensive and offensive performance of the player.
- Expected Goals (xG). xG is used in soccer and measures the quality of the scoring changes. It also predicts how likely it is that a goal will be scored.
- Player Efficiency Rating (PER). This is a form of advanced statistics used in basketball. PER will sum up all the positive accomplishments of a player and subtract their negative ones. Then, it returns a per-minute rating of the players’ overall performance.
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). This metric is used in American football. The task is to evaluate how efficient a team is by comparing the success of each play to a league average, based both on opponent and situation.
- Corsi and Fenwick. This metric is used in hockey and measures shot attempt differential, giving you insight into the overall strength of the team and into puck possession.
How to Use Advanced NHL Statistics for Better Betting
Regardless of the sport you are planning to bet on – and even the league, advanced statistics can help you make better choices when you place your wagers. If you are looking to make smart NHL bets, here is what you should do:
- Research and gather data from reliable sources (such as ESPN, StatMuse, FiveThirtyEight, and more).
- Analyze the data you gather and look for trends and patterns.
- Compare advanced metrics across players and teams.
- Contextualize the stats you found within the game’s dynamics. Consider things like weather conditions, injury, and more.
- Create a betting model to use advanced statistics.