In the fast-moving and unpredictable world of the NHL, having a generational talent like Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews on a team can excite fans and change the betting markets. While it’s obvious these players are really good on the ice, the main question for sports bettors is whether their play matters when trying to pick winners at the bookie.
Do oddsmakers bump bet lines because people are excited about a confident team or event? Or do these players repeatedly show up to cover spreads and help push totals over or under, much more often than you’d expect just by chance?
To find an edge in NHL betting, you must look past what the media and most people know about and look for details that not many discuss. The impact of having an outstanding player on a team can affect the outcome of moneylines, puck lines, and prop bets, but it’s not always clear how much it matters.
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Public Perception vs. Betting Reality
Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews are well-known by just about anybody who follows hockey. McDavid is so fast and skilled that he always seems to be in the running for MVP, while Matthews can score goals unlike anyone else in the NHL.
When teams like the Edmonton Oilers or Toronto Maple Leafs play, sportsbooks usually see many bettors putting their money on these big-name squads, especially because of their star-studded lineups.
As a result, bookmakers sometimes change the odds to ensure there is not too much money on one side of a bet. This means the Oilers and Leafs might be a little too heavy favorites in their games against teams that aren’t among the top ones in the league. Bettors placing their money on these teams usually have to pay more, which makes it more challenging to find good value for their bets.
Simply put, the sportsbooks ensure that even when the public bets on one team, the other side remains balanced so that the house makes money.
Puck Line Pressure
The puck line in hockey is usually set at -1.5 for the favorite, which means you have to pick the favorite team to win by 2 goals to win the bet. Betting on superstar-led teams to cover the puck line might look tempting, especially if they just had a huge game, but you also need to remember that betting isn’t an exact science. But beware: The NHL is often known for close games and scoring goals late in the period.
For example, if McDavid plays great for most of the game, but the Oilers only win 3-2, then a -1.5 puck line bet made on them would be a loss. Matthews might score two goals, but the Leafs still win in overtime, making the sportsbook a loser again.
Totals and the Superstar Effect
Star players can greatly affect over/under totals, especially when they are on teams that like to score a lot. McDavid games, in particular, usually see the sportsbooks lower the totals a bit since the Oilers often score a lot, which lets the team off the hook if they lose.
However, these inflated totals can sometimes help bettors make bets on “under” picks, especially when the game is played against teams that play really good defense or come down to fewer points in the playoffs. Matthews’ Leafs usually score more goals when everyone is healthy, but Toronto’s defense has often been inconsistent, which means betting on more goals is usually a good way to win with the team.
Prop Bets: Where Superstars Shine
McDavid and Matthews stand out by consistently helping you win money with their high scorer picks when you bet on player props. These include betting on whether a player will score, whether there will be more or fewer shots in the game, or whether the total points will be more or less than a certain number.
McDavid often goes over 1.5 points, especially when he plays teams that are not as strong. Matthews usually gets around 4 to 6 shots on goal in every game and usually ends up with even more. These markets can be a bit tougher to figure out, but they also have the chance to give you better odds if you pay attention to player and team situations like injuries and who has power-play time.
Betting in the Playoffs
The playoffs have a completely different feel and make everything even more exciting. Defensive intensity increases, everyone is packed closer, and it gets harder to know which superstar will perform well in these games. McDavid has started to change the story about his game in the playoffs, while Matthews is still getting a lot of questions about how he plays when the games matter most.
Betting on these players in the playoffs means you have to use a different way of thinking. The public might expect high scores and easy wins, but the games are often not like that and usually end with lower scores. Here, either betting against props that seem a bit too high, or going with a side with smaller numbers (unders) might get you some money.
Also, team value shifts. A team like Edmonton might still be favored because of McDavid, but if they play against a really strong, organized team like Carolina or Boston, the odds on them winning might be higher than they should be. Context is everything.
The Verdict: Stars Influence, But Don’t Guarantee
There is no denying that Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews get a lot of attention from sportsbooks and people who make bets. Their just being there can make investors nervous, make people think a certain way about the company, and raise many questions. However, clever NHL bettors know that even though superstars can help their teams win, it doesn’t always mean they can cover the spread.
In moneylines, you usually have to pay a little extra to back your team to win. In puck lines, it’s tight between the two teams. Totals can go up or down based on how people feel about things, and choosing the right props is important for staying in sync with the story.
The best approach is to keep your strengths and weaknesses level so you don’t have too much in one area. Respect their talent, not make a big deal too often about their stars, and go after better spots or chances whenever the games don’t show what guys actually do. The spotlight usually goes to the famous people, but sometimes, the biggest payoffs come from those people you don’t see in the spotlight.