Milan Lucic‘s 5v5 production a cause for concern
After trading Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils in exchange for Adam Larsson, the Edmonton Oilers signed Milan Lucic to a lucrative contract in effort to plug the hole at left wing.
On the surface, you can see how some argue the Lucic signing was a good one — he is 4th on the Oilers in scoring and they are within striking distance of 1st in the Pacific — but if you look a little deeper into the numbers there is cause for concern.
Lucic is on pace for his worst offensive season since 2009-10 in terms of point production on a per game basis. Considering he turns 29 in a few months, and power forwards tend to age poorly, it’s not exactly encouraging that his production is dipping in the first year of a seven-year contract.
If that doesn’t cause second thoughts about whether signing Lucic was the right move, his 5v5 numbers certainly will.
Lucic has appeared in 59 games this season and he has just 14 5v5 points to show for it. Some of the many who have out-produced Lucic in that game state include Daniel Winnik, Brett Ritchie, Matt Cullen, Calle Jarnkrok, Zack Kassian, Brian Boyle, Lauri Korpikoski and Scott Wilson.
The difference in most of those cases is just a few points, however, Lucic makes significantly more than all of those guys combined and has spent hundreds of minutes on a line with Connor McDavid. It shouldn’t be close.
His rate stats don’t paint a bright picture, either. Lucic is 251st among 282 eligible forwards (minimum 500 minutes) in 5v5 points per hour played.
Again, Lucic is ranked below many highly mediocre players who make less money and don’t play with guys like McDavid, Jordan Eberle, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (his most frequent linemates in order of most time spent together to least).
To Lucic’s credit, he has been very effective on the power play and his ability to produce there has kept this deal from being a complete disaster — at least for now. It still doesn’t look good, though, and things will only worsen over time.
Why Brady Skjei deserves more ice time
The New York Rangers are a good team. They have a lot of team speed, an elite forward core with capable scorers on all four lines, and one of the best goaltenders in the league.
Still, most will tell you they’re not legitimate Stanley Cup contenders because of a weak defense. While I agree they certainly need help on the blue line, there are some ways they could help their own cause from within.
The best in-house solution is to give Brady Skjei more minutes.
The 22-year-old sees the lowest average ice time among the Rangers’ six regular defenders despite posting fantastic numbers.
Skjei has 20 5v5 points this season, which puts him in a tie for 6th among all defensemen. The few guys with more: Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, Dustin Byfuglien, Victor Hedman and Dougie Hamilton. That is elite company to be keeping, and Skjei has done it with less ice time.
The Rangers also control 1.2% more of the shot attempts and 5.4% more of the 5v5 goals with Skjei on the ice.
He can skate like the wind, he can move the puck, he can produce offense, and his underlying numbers are good. There is no reason the Rangers should be playing him this little. The sooner they figure that out, the better off they’ll be.
Written by Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell)
