The 2019-20 NHL campaign is just a week away, making it the perfect time to preview what might be ahead.
I’m going to predict each of the major award winners alongside honorable mentions I believe to have a realistic shot.
Today we’re looking at the Selke Trophy.
Winner: Mark Stone – Vegas Golden Knights
I know Mark Stone spent the majority of last season playing for a tire fire of a team in Ottawa but I don’t think people realize just how ridiculously good his numbers were.
Of the 131 forwards to log 1,000+ minutes at 5v5, Stone ranked 2nd in Relative Corsi For% (+8.16%) and 1st in Relative Expected Goals For% (11.64%). A lot of that came from his defensive impact.
Stone’s teams allowed 6.72 fewer attempts/60 with him on the ice than without. That ranked him 1st. His relative xGA/60 of -.26 was good for 6th among the 131 forwards to fit the criteria.
It’s really not surprising his on-ice numbers are so incredible. If you watch him play, he is *always* in the right position and he’s so good at using his stick to pickpocket pucks, intercept passes, and shut down another team’s offense before it even gets going.
Like I said when predicting Stone to be a Hart finalist, I think people will realize all of this now that he’s in more of a spotlight playing for a Stanley Cup contender.
Honorable mention: Patrice Bergeron – Boston Bruins
Death, taxes, and Bergeron being up for the Selke. Seriously, it’s as predictable as the sunrise at this point. He has won the award five times and it feels like every year he doesn’t win it, he’s a runner up. That’s how I see it playing out again this year.
Bergeron generally hard matches vs top comp on a nightly basis. He enjoys great success, obviously, as his on-ice results are nothing short of remarkable and he’s perhaps the driving force on arguably the league’s best line.
Even if Bergeron’s defensive numbers slide a hair – like they did last year – he has such a strong reputation built up that he’ll probably get a ton of votes anyway.
Honorable mention: Sean Couturier – Philadelphia Flyers
I’m not sure there is a more underappreciated star in the NHL. He’s essentially the perfect player. His offensive game has taken off over the last few years and very few can match his defensive ability.
Last season, for example, Couturier ranked 1st among Flyers forwards in shot attempts against/60 and 2nd in expected goals against/60. This despite being hard matched against opposing team’s top players at home and on the road. His -5.6 relative shot attempts against number was 5th best out of the 131 forwards to play 1,000+ minutes at 5v5.
He is the player people think Sasha Barkov is. At least defensively.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Evolving-Hockey.com
