NHL Betting: 2022 Hart Trophy Favorites

After two seasons heavily impacted by the global pandemic, the 2021–22 NHL season is scheduled to start in mid-October and run a full 82-games. This will be the 104th season of play for the league, which expanded to 32 teams this year with the addition of the Seattle Kraken.

With the new season, come new odds. The Tampa Bay Lightning are the favorites to win the Stanley Cup for the third straight season, and once again, Edmonton Oiler Connor McDavid at +350 is the clear front runner to win the Hart Trophy awarded to the NHL’s most valuable player.

It would be McDavid’s third Hart Trophy after winning the award in 2017 and again this past season, so betting on his ability to repeat isn’t a long shot at all.

Behind McDavid are two former #1 overall draft picks in Nathan McKinnon (+600) of the Colorado Avalance and Auston Matthews (+800) of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Both MacKinnon and Mathews were named as finalists for the 2021 Hart Memorial Trophy after last year’s shorted regular season, and they again round out the top three heading into the new season.

Betting on the Favorite

At +350 odds, Connor McDavid is the clear favorite but probably not a value bet in this situation. Edmonton leans heavily on McDavid and fellow centerman Leon Draisaltl (+1200) to power the offense, which can lead to incredible personal numbers but hasn’t translated to wins for the Oilers.

There has been a push by Edmonton’s management to lighten McDavid’s load and the team has worked during the off-season to make offensive additions should take some of the goal-scoring pressure off McDavid. While that may be good for the Oilers, it could lead to McDavid’s personal stats taking a major hit.

Additionally, +350 are extremely short odds given that a moderate injury could cut into his game played.

Value Just Beneath the Surface

When a player is as heavily favored as Conner McDavid is this season to win the Hart Trophy, value generally can be found just beneath the front runner. In this case, it’s Nathan MacKinnon at +600 odds.

With the return of Gabriel Landeskog who signed a long-term contract extension, and the maturation of young defenseman Cale Makar on the blueline, the Colorado Avalanche is well-positioned to lead the NHL in scoring for the second season in a row.

The Avalanche led the league in goals scored last season with 197 and in points 82 (tied with the Vegas Golden Knights). MacKinnon contributed with 20 goals and 45 assists for 65 points in just 48 games.

MacKinnon’s shot attempts and shooting percentage both declined last season vs 2018-19 and 2019-20. Expect those numbers to tick back up towards his career averages, making him a good bet to improve on last season where he finished 3rd in the Hart Trophy voting.

Long Shots

Auston Matthews isn’t really a long shot, but at +800 his odds make a lot more sense. Matthews led the league in goals last season with 41 in just 52 games. The Rocket Richard Trophy winner is  +400 to lead the league in goals again, and at just  24-years- old when the season starts, should be geared up for another massive season.

Another interesting player in the mix is the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Nikita Kucherov at +1000. Kucherov missed the entire regular season recovering from off-season hip surgery but returned during the playoffs and led all scorers in the post-season with 5-goals, 22-assists totaling 27 points.

The Lightning finished with the third-best power-play unit in the NHL last season and adding Kucherov to the mix could make it even more efficient. The right-winger out will Russia will certainly get a lot of high-quality opportunities.

Complete 2020 Hart Trophy Odds