The scenarios run wild for the New Jersey Devils in theory but the reality is different. Early on, there was some talk of protecting eight skaters and one goalie. That would include four defensemen and four forwards. However, from a numbers standpoint, the 7F/3D/1G setup seems to benefit New Jersey. It would allow them to protect their more borderline forwards. Those forwards feature some potential as well as depth.
There is some definite inklings that the eight skater / one goalie approach may be used. Let’s try to account for both.
Forward Decisions
The Devils have enough high-quality forwards and fortunately Pavel Zacha, Miles Wood, and Joseph Blandisi are exempt. Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri, Adam Henrique, and Travis Zajac are obvious protections. After that, it comes down to who are the fifth, sixth, and seventh forwards protected in the 7F/3D/1G scenario. The eight skater / one goalie option would require less decisions to be made potentially.
Who among the bottom six is worth getting those exemptions?
Ultimately, we’re talking about a team that has just begun to acquire some nice depth. Losing one of these players will not cause a sizable impact. This probably comes down to Michael Cammalleri, Stefan Noesen, or perhaps Jacob Josefson.
It appears that Devante Smith-Pelly would still get exposed here given how little he has achieved career wise from an offensive standpoint. Jacob Josefson is another player who has a little bit of value in shootouts and on the power play. After that, Josefson is like the law of diminishing returns. Injury risks do not help matters either.
At 35, Michael Cammalleri is interesting because he has shown scoring potential in larger spurts for New Jersey. However, last year featured scoring droughts that were Michael Ryder like. Did he regress that much or is there better luck around the corner? That is the question. The track record is there and New Jersey would try to boost his trade value before anything else.
Stefan Noesen had eight points in 32 games since coming over to New Jersey from Anaheim. However, he showed an ability to get into the offensive areas which more efficiency than most expected. There is a good bit of potential from the young forward.
As for Beau Bennett, he is an automatic protect in the 7F/3D/1G setup because of his offensive ability to generate shot attempts and chances. Again, risk is involved because of injuries but he is in his mid 20’s still.
GM Ray Shero has mostly easy decisions here. The toughest part is deciding which scenario offers him the most flexibility. There are no major UFA’s either and only RFA’s.
It keeps looking like Jacob Josefson will be the odd man out regardless of scenario. Cammalleri may be considered depending on how Shero wants to maneuver around the cap, draft, and free agency. The defense is a little more crystal clear in the likely eight skaters / one goalie setup.
Defense Decisions
Andy Greene and Damon Severson are no-brainers to protect with significant value. After that, it gets a little more murky if only three defensemen can be protected.
A four defensemen setup aids John Moore and possibly Ben Lovejoy. Lovejoy is a loyal stay at home blueliner that Ray Shero feels loyalty to. Jon Merrill could be protected but his inconsistency is problematic. That is in spite of some flashes of good play mixed with timidness.
If only three defensemen are exempt from Las Vegas, then it will be Ben Lovejoy who is exposed because of the amount remaining on his contract (two years, $2.66 million). This will again free up money for free agency and signing Damon Severson (RFA). A four defensemen setup will likely expose Jon Merrill.
Goaltender Decisions
This is the easiest decision as Cory Schneider is the starter and Keith Kinkaid is the only UFA of any significance. He could be let go or signed after the expansion draft. There are many bigger fish in the expansion goalie pool over Kinkaid. If he is exposed, it is likely that he will not be taken.
Projected protected players and their cap hits
Forwards
Taylor Hall – $6M through 2020
Travis Zajac (NTC) – $5.75M through 2021
Kyle Palmieri – $4.65M through 2021
Adam Henrique – $4M through 2019
Michael Cammalleri (NTC)* – $5M through 2019
Beau Bennett* – restricted free agent
Stefan Noesen* – restricted free agent
Players protected in 7F/3D/1G scenario = *
Defensemen
Andy Greene (NTC) – $5M through 2020
Damon Severson – restricted free agent
Ben Lovejoy – $2.66M through 2019
John Moore – $1.66M through 2018
Moore would be protected in the 7F/3D/1G scenario over Lovejoy or Merrill.
Goalie
Cory Schneider – $6M through 2022
Top two options on who they would most likely lose
Projecting this is rough because it depends all on how Ray Shero approaches his protect list. It depends on scenario but Michael Cammalleri and Ben Lovejoy are the most likely candidates to be had if they are exposed. Jon Merrill is also a possibility as Las Vegas will like his age and lower cap hit.
If New Jersey were to make a trade with Vegas to select/not select a player, who would it be and why.
I think they want Cammalleri to stay but an interesting gamble is enticing Las Vegas with another one of their forwards (maybe Jacob Josefson or Devante Smith-Pelly perhaps). Josefson is an asset on the power play and would come very cheap. Another variable to consider is that New Jersey has quite a few drafts picks in the next couple seasons. That might be enough to sweeten the pot so a lesser player is taken (longer run scenario). Shero has options at least and cap flexibility to boot. That is key here.
Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS
