In the upcoming expansion draft NHL teams can protect either seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie or eight skaters (in reality four forwards and four defensemen) and one goalie. The latter option seems less popular, as it permits teams just nine instead of eleven non-exposed players, and a fourth-best blueliner is often less valuable to a team than their fifth-best forward.
There are a few exceptions and borderline cases however and we’ve been taking a look at those. Our first post surveyed Nashville, New Jersey, Pittsburgh and Winnipeg and our last post looked Anaheim and Colorado. Here we examine Arizona and Los Angeles.
Arizona Coyotes
The Coyotes are a very young squad, oozing with talented prospects and primed to emerge from the expansion draft relatively unscathed.
As I write this, they have only three forwards, five defensemen and two goalies that are draft-eligible. Very few of their best and/or most promising players need protecting, including Max Domi, Clayton Keller, Dylan Strome, Nick Merkley, Brendan Perlini, Christian Dvorak, Christian Fischer, Lawson Crouse, Laurent Dauphin, Jacob Chychrun, Anthony DeAngelo, Can Dineen, Kyle Wood and Adin Hill.
Arizona’s major expansion-related challenges are meeting exposure requirements and retaining free agents they like during Vegas’ 48-hour pre-draft, negotiation window. For two days the Golden Knights get first crack at players whose contracts have expired and are thus either restricted or unrestricted free agents. By strategically re-signing a few free agents before the window opens, the Coyotes can address both issues and potentially further reduce their already meager payroll, while growing their nearly $26M in 2017-18 cap room.
Two of their three draft-eligible forwards also sport some of the team’s largest cap hits, and neither is essential. Fourth-liner Jamie McGinn carries the largest hit among Arizona forwards at $3.33M, and serviceable 32 year-old Brad Richardson at $2.08M seems fading from GM John Chayka’s increasingly youthful game plan. Leaving both available fulfils exposure requirements, but leaves Tobias Rieder as the only forward requiring protection on the roster.
This is where the 8/1 plan appears preferable to the 7/3/1. They’re allowed to re-sign a few more forwards to make this work, and perhaps can verbally agree with a returning UFA or two to delay finalizing their contracts until after the expansion draft.
Under the 8/1 they can re-resign three eligible forwards to protect along with Rieder. With the 7/3/1 make that six. That’s more than they need. RFAs Jordan Martinook and Anthony Duclair are worthy. The final slot depends upon Chayka’s negotiating acumen and team plans for UFAs Radim Vrbata and Shane Doan.
If the Coyotes want either back, a handshake agreement that one/both won’t sign with Vegas during their window and wait until after the draft to re-up, frees them from protection requirements. If they are still concerned with Vegas as a signing threat, sign one or both and expose maybe Martinook. If they don’t mind losing both veterans, choose from RFAs Peter Holland, Josh Jooris and Alex Burmistrov to fill in the gaps.
However they slice it, the 8/1 opens the possibility for bargain ($1.25M) blue line leader Luke Schenn to avoid exposure along with OEL, Alex Goligoski, and Connor Murphy, which makes team quality and salary cap sense.
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings are in a financial mess, largely due to their pricey long-term contracts with two forwards that no longer produce much – Marian Gaborik and Dustin Brown. Unfortunately for LA there’s no way Vegas will select them, but also there’s no reason to protect them.
With these two exposed the forward ranks get that much thinner, making the 8/1 feasible. They’ll protect team captain Anze Kopitar who has a no movement clause on that $10M yearly contract, as well as leading scorer Jeff Carter. Tanner Pearson is an underrated scorer and difference-maker who just signed a three-year deal. He’ll stay. Tyler Toffoli, like previously mentioned RFAs, might agree to forgo Vegas negotiation window wooing and get a post-draft returning deal done. If so, that’s three. If not, that’s four and the remaining forward depth isn’t mind-blowing.
While they each contribute various positives, Trevor Lewis, Kyle Clifford, Nic Dowd and Jordan Nolan could all be exposed without risking much. Lewis seems likely to be protected should Toffoli agree to re-sign with LA after the draft.
The Kings can thus determine if a fourth defenseman is more valuable than perhaps Lewis, and if so go with the 8/1. They will protect Drew Doughty, Alec Martinez, and likely Jake Muzzin although his selection would clear $4M in cap space. Derek Forbort and Brayden McNabb are left. I’d probably take Forbort’s $650,000 cap hit over McNabb’s $1.7M, but I’d prefer either over their fifth forward selections, particularly if a Toffoli agreement enables Lewis’ protection.
