Every year general managers go on spending sprees in free agency.
Sometimes things work out, of course, but much more often we see players fail to live up to the lucrative contracts they sign.
In this post, I’ll take a closer look at three pending free agents likely to cause buyer’s remorse.
The 31-year-old defender is seeking a raise from the $4.35 million annually he was pulling in with the Columbus Blue Jackets. I hope he lands the lucrative deal he’s after because of what his parents put him through but I certainly wouldn’t be the one to give it to him.
There are a lot of red flags with Johnson. A lot.
He has played 11 seasons in the NHL and his teams have consistently fared worse with him on the ice. In most cases, significantly so.
As you can see, Johnson’s on-ice numbers are horrendous. And yet his individual numbers are somehow similarly bad.
Once a solid offensive contributor, Johnson’s production has completely dried up. Over the last three seasons he’s put up 48 points in 219 games, which equates to a hair under 18 per 82.
The picture painted by rate stats isn’t any better as the likes of Robert Bortuzzo, Ron Hainsey, and Johnny Oduya have produced 5v5 points at a more efficient rate over the same three-year window.
Johnson is already going through a steep decline and there’s no reason to believe things will get much better, if any, as he moves deeper into his 30s.
From 2013-16, Grabner scored 29 goals in 178 games, an average of just over 13 per 82.
From 2016-18, Grabner potted 54 goals in 154 games, an average of more than 28 per 82. Impressive, right?
Well, his totals were inflated by a lot of empty netters and an unsustainably high shooting percentage. Prior to 2016-17, his career shooting percentage was a little higher than 11%. Since, Grabner has converted on 16.4% of his shots. That’s a massive jump. Had he converted on ~11% – still a good number! – over the last two years, his goal total would have dropped from 54 to 37, good for an average of 18.5 per season. Still solid, of course, but a far cry from the 26 he’s averaged in that time.
It’s also worth noting Grabner has posted a negative Relative Corsi For% in four consecutive seasons. In other words, he’s not doing much to help his team when he’s not scoring. And, again, there’s plenty of reason to believe some of those goals will dry up moving forward.
I think any team that buys high on the 30-year-old will come away disappointed.
Stastny is coming off a very good season. He recorded more than 35 assists for just the second time since 2009-10. He was a 50+ point player for the first time since 2013-14. He put up 38 points at 5v5, which is his largest output since 2009-10. He also enjoyed a lot of playoff success setting a new career high with 15 points in 17 games during a lengthy run with the Winnipeg Jets.
So why will the team that signs him probably regret it?
For one, they’d be buying high to the extreme. Stastny reached a lot of plateaus he hasn’t hit in a while. The likelihood of him checking all of those boxes again is not high and will only decrease with age (he turns 33 in December).
Adding fuel to the fire: Stastny plays a premium position and the market at said position is extremely shallow. John Tavares, who may end up staying put, is the only other top-six center who could be available.
After that, you’re looking at Tyler Bozak, Derek Ryan, Valtteri Filppula, Tomas Plekanec, Jay Beagle and, good God, this list is horrifying.
Teams are always, always, always looking for quality centers and, with so few available, you can bet there will be a ton of interest in Stastny. As such, he’s almost certainly going to get a lot of money and term at a point in his career where he shouldn’t.
Written by Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell)