Trade details
The Edmonton Oilers sent 27-year-old winger Jordan Eberle to the New York Islanders in exchange for 23-year-old winger Ryan Strome.
Why the Islanders made the move
- Eberle is not a perfect player but he has quietly been a very good one for a long time. Since entering the NHL, Eberle has averaged 62 points per 82 games played. John Tavares is the only Islanders player who has averaged more, so Eberle will provide a big boost offensively.
- Eberle has scored 20+ goals in five of the last six seasons (every year but the lockout-shortened one). The following players have more 20+ goal years in that span: Alex Ovechkin, Patrick Kane, Phil Kessel, Jeff Carter, James Neal, Jonathan Toews and his new teammate, Tavares. That’s it. It’s harder than ever to score in the NHL but Eberle has had no problems doing so.
- Eberle still managed to score 20 goals and put up 51 points this year despite very poor puck luck. From 2010-16, Eberle scored on 14.1% of the shots he took. This past season he scored on 9.6%. If Eberle scored on 14%, his career average, he’d have potted 29 goals, which would tie him with the likes of Leon Draisaitl, Joe Pavelski, and Brent Burns. Either Eberle lost all his shooting talent, or last season was a one-off (in which he still managed to be very productive!). I’m betting on the latter.
- The Islanders want to show John Tavares they’re committed to winning –and surrounding him with quality players — so that he’s more inclined to re-sign long-term. Adding a former World Junior teammate, one who is consistently productive, is surely a step in the right direction.
Why the Oilers made the move
- Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will soon sign extremely lucrative contract extensions, which means the Oilers needed to move some money. They deemed Eberle expendable and cleared $3.5 million while getting a pretty solid, young player back in Strome.
- Strome is not as talented, or consistent, as Eberle, but there’s reason to believe he is better than he showed last season. If you look at his rate stats at 5v5, you’ll see that he’s averaged a very solid 1.79 points per 60 minutes over the last three seasons. That ranks him 79th among 261 eligible forwards (minimum 2,000 5v5 minutes) and ahead of big names like Nathan MacKinnon, Ryan Johansen, Jonathan Drouin, Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, and Jakub Voracek, among many others. He has talent so if he gets consistent minutes, he should be able to produce.
- Again, last season was a struggle but he has shown he can be a solid middle-6 forward and the 23-year-old still has his prime years ahead of him.
- Strome needs a new contract next summer but, barring an incredibly productive season, the Oilers should be able to lock him up at a very reasonable price given; a) his struggles in 2015-16 and; b) he’s a restricted free agent, so he wouldn’t have a ton of leverage in negotiations.
Conclusion
I understand why the Oilers made the trade — they needed to clear cap and Strome is a pretty good piece — but I think this is a win for the Islanders. Eberle has averaged 26 goals and 62 points per 82 games throughout his career and there’s reason to believe that will continue riding shotgun alongside prime John Tavares.
Written by Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell)
