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NHL Trade Analysis

NHL Trade Analysis: Manning and Petrovic to Edmonton in Wild Afternoon

Chris Wassel 12/30/2018
5 Min Read
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With only one game on the NHL schedule Sunday, it was expected to be a quiet day. Peter Chiarelli changed that in just a few hours this afternoon. He swung deals to acquire Brandon Manning and Alexander Petrovic. The cost became high as it turned out Chris Wideman plus a third round 2019 pick went Florida’s way. Chicago got Drake Caggiula and Jason Garrison in the Manning trade.

Edmonton was in the quagmire of a five-game losing streak when the trades occurred. In that span, the Oilers yielded a whopping 25 goals — including seven to San Jose on Saturday night. Something had to be done and the trades above were the result.

Analysis can be fleeting here. However, it notably is ominous when one team trades a defenseman that cost them two top-six forwards and is ecstatic about it. Anyway, let’s begin.

Trade Impact Of the Petrovic to Edmonton deal 

Again, the first deal caught many off guard a bit as talk the past few days centered around a goalie for defenseman swap of sorts. Even last night, Bob Stauffer had been talking about this. Has that type of deal come and gone? No one knows. What is known is that Petrovic cost Chiarelli a depth defenseman and a third rounder next year.

Petrovic managed just one assist in 26 games on 40 shots this year. Offense was not his strong suit anyway. However, even his defense has been questionable for vast stretches the last season or two. Too many lapses had been talked about by media, fans, and even coaches alike.

How bad was Petrovic in Florida? This is how he might impact Edmonton.

I made a WAR lineup creator tool (try it: https://t.co/v40XICk9yk).

Before the Wideman trade, it projected EDM’s roster to earn 82 standings points.
With Petrovic, the lineup drops to 69 points (not nice!) pic.twitter.com/cKKqGPLPE1

— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) December 30, 2018

Many thanks to Sean Tierney as always. The fact remains that Petrovic would have to play like he did a few years back for this deal to even be worth it. Wideman played just five games for Edmonton after being acquired from Ottawa. Also, his impact was positive and had a couple assists (11:26 ATOI). Petrovic was on the ice for a little over 17 minutes a night this year and did not see any power play time. The last three games saw him on the ice for just around 14 minutes a game.

Edmonton hopes a nearly 27-year-old defenseman can regain his form. But wait, there is more.

Impact Of Brandon Manning in Edmonton and more

If the first trade was not enough, there was second very late Sunday afternoon. The main part for Edmonton was Brandon Manning going from Chicago to the Oilers. Drake Caggiula was the “marquis” player going the other way. Ultimately, Jason Garrison will end up in Chicago’s AHL affiliate in Rockford. Robin Norell will head for the minors in the Edmonton organization.

Apparently, compete level was important with Peter Chiarelli and allegedly Manning is another player that provides as such. Things went poorly for Manning in Chicago to the point where he was a -14 in just 27 games. He tallied a goal and two assists while averaging less than a shot a game. Edmonton receives a player who was on the ice for barely 15 minutes a night and was a healthy scratch often of late. He had not played in 2 1/2 weeks. Even Chicago, as bad as they have been, had enough of Manning. Strangely enough, the Blackhawks are playing their best hockey of the year right now.

As for Drake Caggiula, he has been far from good but not bad either. Seeing mostly third line ice time, the forward fired in seven goals and four assists in 29 contests. He was slightly above average in possession metrics (+0.85%) and averaged 1.7 shots per night. Chicago is getting a young, 24 year old forward with some room to improve. Most will look to how Dylan Strome worked out so far in Chicago.

Florida gets a pick and Chicago another young forward to pile into their system. Maybe Manning and Petrovic turn things around but it’s late to gamble this steeply.

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TAGGED:Alexander PetrovicBrandon ManningChicago BlackhawksDrake CaggiulaEdmonton OilersFlorida PanthersJason GarrisonNHL Trades

Offer Sheet Compensation

<$1.54M no comp
$1.54M – $2.34M: 3rd
$2.34M – $4.68M: 2nd
$4.68M – $7.02M: 1st, 3rd
$7.02M – $9.36M: 1st, 2nd, 3rd
$9.36M – $11.7M: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
$11.7M+: 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st,

2024-25 Critical Dates

June 1-7: NHL Scouting Combine (Buffalo, NY)
June 23rd: Last possible day for the Stanley Cup Final
June 27th-28th: 2025 NHL Draft
July 1st: Start of free agency

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