With NHL clubs locking up many of their key players to long-term contracts, the amount and quality of free agents that hit the market every summer continues to be on the decline.
That shrinking market is having a corresponding effect on the NHL trade deadline, as quality rentals are becoming a rarity.
While the upcoming expansion draft may be a factor for teams forced to move players they cannot protect (or choose not to), salary cap limitations and the fact that a number of pending UFA’s are playing for contending clubs could cause a drag on movement made before the March 1 deadline.
Tampa Bay did not seriously entertain trading Steven Stamkos prior to last year’s deadline (who had a no-movement clause), the Blues kept team captain David Backes, the Rangers did not move Keith Yandle, nor did Dallas shop Alex Goligoski and Jason Demers.
Currently the list of potential available players for the summer of 2017 includes San Jose’s Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Brent Burns, Tampa Bay goalie Ben Bishop, Washington’s Karl Alzner and TJ Oshie and Blues defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk.
It is possible that some of these players could drop off the list between now and March if their clubs are successful in signing them to extensions.
San Jose will understandably try to get Burns locked up. He’s coming off a career-high 75 points and a Norris Trophy nomination and the odds are that they will with over $13 Million in cap space freed up with Thornton and Marleau’s contracts expiring.
The Lightning have no dilemma regarding their netminding, as Bishop’s free agency allows them to protect Andrei Vasilevskiy, but the fact that Tampa Bay is a leading contender in the East may give GM Steve Yzerman pause to move out Bishop.
The Caps won the President’s Trophy but fell short in their pursuit of the Cup, losing in the second round to Pittsburgh. Alzner is a vital piece of Washington’s blueline group (especially with veteran Brooks Orpik on the decline), while Oshie led the club with six playoff goals and provides secondary offense that takes some of the burden off of Alex Ovechkin.
The Blues have a similar situation with Shattenkirk, who could end up being the highest paid free agent next summer with the value of puck-moving defensemen increasing.
St. Louis has depth on the blueline with Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester and Colton Parayko (an RFA next summer) but they will likely be hesitant to sacrifice defensive depth when they are trying to make the Stanley Cup Final for the first time in 47 years.
The upcoming deadline may again be more productive for non-playoff teams looking to recoup draft picks or prospects, as the Toronto Maple Leafs did last season by moving James Reimer, Roman Polak, Nick Spaling, Shawn Matthias and Daniel Winnik.
Buffalo is unlikely to challenge for a playoff spot after the loss of Jack Eichel, Evander Kane, Zach Bogosian and Tyler Ennis to injury, and falling behind the pack in the East. That fact could make GM Tim Murray willing to shop blueliner Dmitry Kulikov.
Calgary thus far appears to be in the Nolan Patrick sweepstakes instead of competing for a playoff spot as they did in 2015, which could make Dennis Wideman a viable option for teams looking for blueline help.
Philadelphia is in the mix for a wild-card spot in the East, but with young blueliners Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov on the club and Samuel Morin and Travis Sanheim in the pipeline, veterans Mark Streit and Michael Del Zotto could be on the move.
There will undoubtedly be moves made before and on March 1 and some will provide a missing piece or two to teams looking to have success in the post-season, but if you are waiting for your favorite club to make a big splashy move, you are likely to be disappointed.
Michael (@MikeInBuffalo on Twitter) can also be found on HockeyBuzz.com