We’re less than a month away from the NHL buyout window opening (the later of June 15 or 48 hours after the Stanley Cup Final), and as we know the incoming 31st team in Vegas will alter the buyout landscape a bit. This offseason, teams can buy out players who have a no-movement clause that they otherwise would need to protect in the expansion draft.
Such players, once bought out, will count toward team exposure requirements. One main incentive to buy them out is to protect other draft-eligible players their respective teams consider more valuable. Of course the regular buyout philosophy still applies as, Golden Knights or no, teams will look to save valuable cap space by unloading contracts for players that offer less than equal return, and prefer to use less cap space up front in exchange for extended installments.
Let’s take a look at potential Pacific Division buyout candidates, their remaining contracts’ cap hit amounts, and how much cap space they would cost their current teams to buy out and for how long (stats courtesy of CapFriendly.com and some rounded up slightly by me to save space). We started with the Atlantic and Metropolitan Divisions of the Eastern Conference, most recently examined the Western Conference’s Central Division and here wrap up the Western Conference by surveying the Pacific Division.
Anaheim Ducks
Kevin Bieksa – One year – $4.0M
Buyout cap hit – $4.0M (no cap relief)
Similar to Colorado’s Francois Beauchemin, Bieksa has a “35+” contract. For those aged 35 or older by June 30 of the year their contract starts, like the Ducks’ defenseman, buyouts don’t bring any cap relief. With slightly over $2.3M in cap room next year Anaheim would welcome the space. There are other major benefits to a buyout however.
Bieksa also has a no movement clause that forbids him from being exposed in the expansion draft without his approval. From Anaheim’s perspective, a buyout would count him as exposed and allow them to protect another player or players they want to keep.
Depending on whether they protect 7F/3D/1G or 8F-D/1G, a buyout would enable them to re-sign and keep either 25 year-old, rugged blueliner Josh Manson or three additional forwards. Jakob Silfverberg coming off a 49-ponit campaign, face-off king Antoine Vermette, and iron man Andrew Cogliano could all be protected should Anaheim choose that option. Having few funds to pursue free agents, keeping these core forwards might be preferred.
Losing Bieksa would open more opportunity next season for Shea Theodore, Brandon Montour (tied for third on the squad with a plus-11 in just 27 regular season games), and other promising young defenders in their system.
Calgary Flames
Troy Brouwer – Three years – $4.5M
Buyout cap hit – $1.5M, $1.5M, $1.5M, $1.5M, $1.5M, $1.5M
Brouwer saw a significant drop in points last season, and wasn’t racking up stellar totals previously. After two straight Capitals years of 43 points and a 2015-16 Blues campaign with 39, his 13 goals and 12 assists (tied for eighth among Flames forwards) didn’t justify his salary. He did lead the club in hits with 171, but his fourth-line work and not all that effective physical game is not worth three more years at $4.5M each.
Expansion draft-wise, a buyout doesn’t seem the most sensible initial move. It would likely allow them to protect Matt Stajan or Lance Bouma instead, that’s doubtfully a strong enough incentive to justify the move. With over $21.84M of 2017-18 cap space they aren’t in a terrible financial bind either.
Leaving him unprotected instead may prove fruitful. Vegas GM George McPhee did once bring him to Washington, in 2011. It’s six years later, but as one of two Calgary assistant captains he may convey leadership to the new squad. Should the Golden Knights snap him and his contract up with their ample cap space, problem solved. If not, unless they need the extra room to sign a free agent I think he’s back with the Flames provided no good trade options arise.
Edmonton Oilers
Benoit Pouliot – Two years – $4.0M
Buyout cap hit – $1.34M, $1.34M, $1.34M, $1.34M
Pouliot’s production fell off drastically last year, from 14 goals and 22 assists in 55 games to just 14 points in 61 games. With over 60% of his 2015-16 even strength production coming while skating with Connor McDavid, and almost no skating with the big guy last year, that’s one major difference. Increased scoring by Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, even Mark Letestu, a full year of Patrick Maroon, and the additions of Milan Lucic and Zack Kassian also soaked up Pouliot’s former ice time (almost two minutes less per contest).
So is the soon 31 year-old still vital to Edmonton? It appears not. He’ll likely be exposed in the expansion draft, but there seems better selections for Vegas with Letestu (less likely), and backup goaltender Laurent Brossoit (almost assuredly) available. Perhaps GM Peter Chiarelli can sweeten the deal with a prospect or two to help facilitate a Pouliot move to the desert. As with Brouwer, that would solve the problem.
A Pouliot buyout doesn’t appear crucial in terms of protecting other players on the team. With nearly $22.5M in cap room next year, even after Draisaitl and Kris Russell are re-signed along with probably Zack Kassian, the extra $2.67M in saved cap space next year doesn’t seem worth the extended payments. With McDavid due a huge raise after next season, they need to watch their long-term finances.
Los Angeles Kings
Marian Gaborik – Four years – $4.875M
Buyout cap hit – $1.125M, $1.625, $3.025M, $3.125M, $1.325M, $1.325M, $1.325M, $1.325M
Dustin Brown – Five years – $5.875M
Buyout cap hit – $1.075M, $2.075M, $2.075M, $3.575M, $3.575M, $1.7M $1.7M, $1.7M, $1.7M, $1.7M
Each of these contracts has hamstrung the Kings financially for several years, and will continue to far into the future. Brown will be 33 as next season begins and is signed until he’s 38. A buyout would extend these payments through 2027. Last year he registered his best scoring totals since he signed – 36 points, up from seasons of 28, 27, and 27 in reverse chronological order.
Gaborik turns 36 next February. He’ll be forty when his deal expires. After 47 points in 2014-15, injuries have seriously hurt his game, pushing his totals down to 22, and then 21 last year. A buyout would force the Kings to pay him until 2025.
So, just how much production does either have left? It’s possible a new, offensive-oriented system under Rob Blake, Luc Robitaille and John Stevens will spur greater scoring from these two. GM Blake did announce recently that no Gaborik buyout is imminent. The structure of both his and Brown’s deals make buyouts unlikely, as their corresponding cap hits escalate until the cap savings rests at just $1.75M for Gaborik and $2.3M for Brown in their final contract years.
With such relatively small savings costing an additional four years of payments for Gaborik and five for Brown, expect the Kings to try and squeeze as much production as they can for the life of their contracts. While pending RFA Tyler Toffoli should see a salary bump going forward, Los Angeles will find a way to make that happen without further mortgaging their future through a Gaborik or Brown buyout.
There’s also no compelling reason to buy either out in order to protect other Kings players, so exposing both in the expansion draft seems sound. Vegas surely won’t bite unless they receive some extremely lucrative incentives though. Count on both in Kings’ black next year unless the new brass swings an unlikely contract-swallowing deal.
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