Every year there’s plenty of turnover in the NHL playoff picture. On average, about two teams per conference make the playoffs after failing to do so the season prior.
Let’s take a closer look at a couple of Eastern Conference teams who could do just that in 2019-20.
Florida Panthers
The Panthers did not come close to earning a playoff spot last season. They finished 12 points shy of Columbus for the final Wild Card position while winning just 36 games. It was a really disappointing season for the #FancyCats. But, make no mistake: the Panthers were not a bad team in 2018-19. At least not as bad as they appeared on the surface.
Only eight teams scored more goals than the Panthers (seven of them made the playoffs). Putting the puck in the net was not an issue. Neither was their 5v5 performance, where they were a middle of the road team. They controlled 49.42% of the shot attempts (16th) and 48.85% of the scoring chances (18th). Nothing to write home about, of course, but not too bad.
So why weren’t they playing meaningful hockey in April? Goaltending.
Roberto Luongo appeared in 43 games during what turned out to be his final NHL season. He posted a woeful .899 save percentage while recording a quality start in just 20 of his 40 starts.
James Reimer was not much (any?) better. Though he managed .900 save percentage, which was still well below average in a year numbers were down significantly league-wide, only 34.5% of his starts were of the quality variety, per Hockey-Reference.com.
Sam Montembeault (11 games, .894 SV%, 50 QS%) and Michael Hutchinson (four games, .839 SV%, 0 QS%) also struggled mightily during their cups of coffee with the Panthers.
You get the point by now. Nobody could give the Panthers anything close to average goaltending.
So what did the Panthers do to address this? Landed the biggest fish in the sea, signing Sergei Bobrovsky to a long-term deal on July 1st.
The former Vezina winner was not at his best in 2018-19 and yet his numbers are still as good or better than anyone’s over the last three seasons.
From 2016-19, 40 goaltenders logged at least 5,000 minutes in goal. Bobrovsky’s .922 save percentage tied John Gibson for top spot and no goaltender matched or bested, Bobrovsky in goals saved above average (56.42) during that time. Once again, those numbers include what was a down year by Bobrovsky’s usual standards (though he still finished well above the league average SV% of .905).
If Bobrovsky can give the Panthers anything close to that caliber of goaltending, they are going to be a very good team given the state of their roster.
The offense looks to be in great shape. All the key guys are returning and Brett Connolly, fresh off a 46 point campaign in Washington, was signed as a free agent to provide more depth scoring.
While I don’t think they have a top-tier defense, there are some quality players in place and the addition of Anton Stralman should help solidify things further.
The Panthers also now have one of the NHL’s best coaches – Joel Quenneville – in charge to help maximize all the talent on board.
I think they’re a great bet to get back to the dance in 2019-20.
New Jersey Devils
Last season the Devils were an absolute disaster across the board.
They struggled scoring goals, which was especially evident while playing without Taylor Hall for all of 2019.
They weren’t exactly good at preventing goals either. The defense was sloppy at the best of times and the Cory Schneider/Keith Kinkaid tandem didn’t do much to help.
They were also consistently caved in on the shot clock, ranking 29th in Corsi For% at 5v5.
It was crystal clear the team needed a serious infusion of talent throughout the lineup. Luckily for Devils fans, GM Ray Shero added as much as realistically possible this summer.
He smartly selected dynamic center Jack Hughes, who should make an impact right away, atop the draft.
He gave Nico Hischier, and Hughes, some more toys to play with on the wing, adding the KHL’s leading point producer Nikita Gusev and perennial 20+ goal scorer Wayne Simmonds to a stable that already included established top-6ers like Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri, and Jesper Bratt.
Shero made a massive change on defense as well. He parlayed cap space, extra draft capital, and replacement level defenseman Steve Santini into former Norris winner P.K. Subban. The latter’s best days are behind him, no doubt, but he’s only 30 and has averaged 50 points per 82 games over the last three seasons. He clearly has some gas left in the tank and instantly becomes the anchor of the defense.
With Subban joining a defense core featuring Damon Severson, Will Butcher, Sami Vatanen, ace penalty killer Andy Greene, and (likely) top prospect Ty Smith, the group suddenly looks competent.
Schneider has been more miss than hit over the last couple of seasons but he posted a .927 save percentage over his final 14 games. Meanwhile, Mackenzie Blackwood recorded a rock solid .920 SV% over 23 games with the big club.
If either of those two steps up to the plate and provides average, or above average, goaltending, the Devils have a good chance of getting back into the playoffs.
Two teams that could take a step back in the Eastern Conference
Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Hockey-Reference.com.
