On Friday, the Colorado Avalanche completed a trade for Ryan O’Reilly. Long-rumoured to be on his way out of Colorado, the Avs settled on a package of prospects and a second round pick from the Buffalo Sabres in return for the centreman.
Sabres receive: C Ryan O’Reilly and LW Jamie McGinn
Avalanche receive: D Nikita Zadorov, C Mikhail Grigorenko, LW J.T. Compher, and the 31st overall draft pick
This trade has something for both sides. Let’s take a look at which side came out ahead in the O’Reilly deal.
Buffalo Acquires O’Reilly and McGinn
Ryan O’Reilly is 24-years-old and set to earn $6.2 million next season ($6 million cap hit) before becoming an unrestricted free agent after next season. He registered 17 goals and 38 assists in 82 games last season. In six NHL seasons, O’Reilly has scored 55 points or more three times. He has proven to be a reliable second-line scorer with the ability to produce first-unit offense by times.
However, the Sabres didn’t part with two high-quality youngsters and the 31st pick for second-line scoring. Instead, O’Reilly’s abilities as a defensively aware, puck-managing forward are the keys to his value. O’Reilly has developed a reputation for great hockey sense and an ability to improve the play of his linemates.
Over the past three years, O’Reilly has consistently improved the offensive and defensive play of his teammates. Among Avalanche players with more than ten games played, he finished with the fifth-best Corsi For Percentage relative to teammates last season (+3.0). This mark is impressive as O’Reilly had a defensive zone faceoff percentage of 37.9, third-highest for the Avs.
The major concern regarding O’Reilly is his contract. After enduring a strained relationship with Avalanche management regarding his value to the club, O’Reilly carries a hefty $6 million price tag next season before becoming a UFA. With approximately $16 million in cap space next season, the Sabres shouldn’t have any trouble agreeing on a new deal with O’Reilly. GM Tim Murray sounds prepared to make the two-way stalwart the highest-paid Sabres forward long-term.
As the focal point of this deal, the Sabres have added a prototypical two-way centre with elite defense and strong offense. O’Reilly is young and is still a couple of years away from reaching his prime. The Sabres have done well to bring in a high-quality pivot to centre their top unit next season and beyond.
The Sabres also acquired winger Jamie McGinn. The 26-year-old earns $2.95 million next season before becoming a UFA. His production is somewhat mixed, but McGinn has shown some puck management and a touch of goal-scoring. He figures to serve as a 2nd or 3rd line player for the Sabres as they continue to develop.
Colorado Acquires Zadorov, Grigorenko, Compher, and 31st overall pick
The Avalanche were not dealing from a position of strength as the entire NHL knew that O’Reilly was being shopped around. In that way, GM Joe Sakic did well to acquire some futures in return for his expensive star.
In Nikita Zadorov, the Avs address an organizational need by adding a young blue liner to a thin defense group. Zadorov dressed for 60 games with the Sabres last season. He sported an ugly 39.4 Corsi for percentage but his mark was slightly better than the Sabres’ team average. Zadorov is huge – 6’5, 230 lbs – and only 20 years old. His scouting reports are highly positive. There’s a lot to like about his future in Colorado.
Mikhail Grigorenko has been hard-pressed to show off his great skills so far at the NHL level. In 68 games over three seasons, the young pivot has mustered only 14 points. However, Grigorenko played for Roy when the Avs’ head coach was leading the Quebec Remparts. This connection might help to spur on Grigorenko’s development.
J.T. Compher is a 20-year-old prospect playing at the college level. He is known as an energy player with great skating. For the Avalanche, he represents some organizational depth and, most likely, nothing more.
The Avs moved quickly on Saturday morning, flipping the 31st overall pick received in the O’Reilly deal for the 39th pick (used to select LW AJ Greer) a second round pick in 2016, and a seventh round pick in 2017. Turning the second-rounder into three picks was excellent draft resource management by the Avs, giving the team multiple opportunities to snag a relevant prospect.
All told, this trade is a clear win for the Sabres. They add a high-skill centre just entering the prime years of his career. However, the Avalanche did well to acquire several young assets in return while freeing up the cap space needed to make an offseason signing to help their ailing blueline.
Written by Sean Tierney, who can be found @SeanTierneyTSS
