The NHL trade deadline is just over a month away.
That means we will soon see a flurry of activity from general managers trying to bolster their clubs in hopes of an extended playoff run.
We recently looked at three rentals that teams should prioritize leading up to the deadline. Today, we’re going to look at a couple of cases where the buyer should beware.
C – Jean-Gabriel Pageau – Ottawa Senators
Let me preface this by saying I like Pageau. He is a useful two-way forward and he’d be a nice player for any team to have.
My concerns lie more with the potential cost of acquisition than with Pageau. He is one of the biggest names in a pretty underwhelming rental market and I think it’s going to cost a lot to pry him from Ottawa. If that’s the case, I do have some reservations.
In just 47 games Pageau already matched his career-high in goals and is on pace to breeze past his previous high in points (43). A ridiculous shooting percentage spike is a big reason why. Pageau has scored on 18.1% of his shots, well above his career average of 10.6%. That spans over parts of eight seasons so it’s not like we’re dealing with a small sample.
If Pageau was shooting 10.6% this season he’d have 11 goals in his back pocket right now. That eight-goal cut would also drop his point total down to 23 in 47 games. Not nearly as impressive, especially when you consider Pageau is getting 19 minutes and top power play time on a shallow team.
Even ignoring Pageau’s unsustainably high shooting percentage, his 5v5 outputs are not overly impressive. He is averaging 1.61 points per 60, an almost identical number to guys like Pavel Zacha and Patrick Marleau.
Pageau’s outputs are the byproduct of a) an absurd shooting percentage spike and; b) a ton of ice time inopportune situations (like PP1 with Brady Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot, and co.).
The former is not going to last, and he’s not going to benefit from that kind of usage elsewhere.
If Pageau were to be traded to Pittsburgh, for example, he’d likely slot in as the 3C and play with *checks notes* Dominik Kahun and Brandon Tanev at even-strength. No PP1 time.
If Pageau were to be traded to the Islanders, he might have the luxury of playing with Tom Kuhnhackl and Michael Dal Colle at evens. Again, probably no PP1 time.
His production would significantly decrease in that role and I don’t think he’d bring enough to the table in other areas to warrant the cost that comes with acquiring a top rental.
And if any team wants to talk themselves into paying a premium because they intend to re-sign Pageau, they’re buying high on a player unlikely to repeat this kind of production moving forward.
Unless the asking price turns out to be less than rumored, I’d probably steer clear of Pageau.
D – Sami Vatanen – New Jersey Devils
New Jersey acquired Vatanen in November of the 2017-18 campaign. Since that time, the following 10 defenders have patrolled the Devils’ blue line for at least 380 minutes at 5v5:
Damon Severson
Andy Greene
Will Butcher
Mirco Mueller
Ben Lovejoy
John Moore
Steven Santini
Connor Carrick
P.K. Subban
Egor Yakovlev
Sami Vatanen
Not exactly an impressive cast of characters, which is a big reason why the Devils sit 28th in points percentage and 29th in goals against over that period of time.
‘That’s not all on Vatanen’, you might say. There is obviously some truth to that. But here’s the thing: if the majority of the other defenders rostered are not good – they’re not – the Devils should be a better team with Vatanen on the ice. It is a low bar to clear.
Somehow, Vatanen hasn’t managed to clear it. The Devils’ share of the chances has been 1.70% lower with Vatanen on the ice. Their share of the expected goals has been 1.45% lower with Vatanen on the ice. He’s made next to no difference on the team’s share of goals and his minus-19 differential (5v5) is certainly nothing to get excited about.
So while he hasn’t completely anchored the Devils, per se, their numbers have been worse with him than without. That shouldn’t be the case considering he generally doesn’t play on the matchup pairing and the ‘without’ includes guys like Santini, Mueller, Lovejoy, and Moore.
It’s not just the on-ice impact that gives pause about paying up to get Vatanen. The individual production isn’t great either.
Vatanen has averaged .79 points per 60 minutes as a member of the Devils. Vladislav Gavrikov, Mark Borowiecki, Andrew MacDonald, Jonas Siegenthaler, and Mike Rielly are a few of the many offensive dynamos averaging more.
Vatanen has done some good work on the power play this year but his 5v5 impact – be it in terms of helping control play or producing offense – continues to be pretty underwhelming.
If the Devils are asking for high-end pieces (1st round picks, quality prospects, etc.) I would avoid Vatanen as a rental. And, no, compounding the mistake by giving him $6 million per season on a long-term deal would not justify parting with those assets.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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