Vancouver Canucks 2015-16 Season Primer

Looking at the Vancouver Canucks heading into this season – outlook, potential lines, roster, top prospects, draft history, stats and season schedule.

2014-15 record: 48-29-5, 101 points  (2nd in the Pacific, 5th in the Western Conference, 8th overall)
2014-15 Outcome: Lost in the first round to Calgary

Total Cap Hit: $70,126,666
Total Player Salaries: $71,940,833
Cap Space: $1,273,334

Source: General Fanager

In: Adam Cracknell, W/C, (FA – StL), Brandon Sutter, C (T – Pit), Blair Jones, C/W (FA – Phi), Brandon Prust, W/C (T – Mtl), Taylor Fedun, D (FA – SJ), Matt Bartkowski, D (FA – Bos), Richard Bachman, G (FA – Edm)

Out: Adam Clendening, D (T – Pit), Nick Bonino, C/LW (T – Pit), Ryan Stanton, D (FA – Wsh), Michael Zalewski, LW (FA-Minors), Brandon DeFazio, LW (FA – Bos), Shawn Matthias, LW/C (FA – Tor), Bobby Sanguinetti, D (FA – Buf), Brad Richardson, C/W (FA – Ari), Zack Kassian, RW (T – Mtl), Cal O’Reilly, C (FA – Buf), Kevin Bieksa, D (T – Ana), Eddie Lack, G (T – Car), Patrick McNally, D (T – SJ), Joacim Eriksson, G (FA-Europe)

Source: Sports Forecaster

The Vancouver Canucks are in a unique position for the 2015-2016 season; they could either become the first NHL team to exceed expectations for two consecutive seasons while almost openly rejecting analytics, or they could find themselves at the very bottom of the league in a very short period of time.

The 2014 off-season for Vancouver saw three moves that many considered to be a perfect example of newly hired GM Jim Benning keeping his promise of a quick, effective, on-the-fly rebuild that didn’t tear apart the team’s tenured core. Ryan Miller was brought on to finally end the goaltending controversy once and for all, Radim Vrbata added more skill to hopefully help with a four-line mentality, and Ryan Kesler was granted his request to leave the organization in exchange for a seemingly snake-bitten Luca Sbisa and American-born centre Nick Bonino.

In theory, those moves all worked the way they were supposed to. The organization didn’t overpower the rest of the league when they made the post-season, but they certainly made a splash by holding both Los Angeles and San Jose out of playoff spots. An early first-round exit to the PDO-driven Calgary Flames was disappointing, but the Canucks roster seemed to hold promise.

Then, the club went through quite possibly the most disappointing off-season across the NHL.

Where the Boston Bruins came out of the 2015 summer unsure whether GM Don Sweeney was a misunderstood genius or just completely incompetent, it’s very hard to argue that Vancouver got anything but worse.

Bonino was sent out of the organization after just one season, heading with defensive prospect Adam Clendening (a seemingly good acquisition mid-season) and a draft selection for controversial defensive centre Brandon Sutter. Despite most advanced analytics pointing to Bonino being a stronger contributor from a possession standpoint — and a far cheaper option than Sutter, meaning the club could then bring on another secondary offensive contributor who would far outweigh Sutter’s production — the Canucks pulled the trigger on the deal anyway. They then inked Sutter to the first-ever contract that paid over $4M AAV salary to a player who had never hit 40 points in a single season. The deal is set to kick in after this season.

The contract for Sutter was combined with two other contracts that many found easy to criticize. After yet another poor season, Sbisa was inked to a multi-year deal himself, and regression candidate Derek Dorsett earned himself a multi-year deal that’s almost certain to hurt the Canucks before long. Add in a below-market value trade for goaltender Eddie Lack (who fetched third and seventh round draft selections, where two other high-calibre backups fetched first rounders) and a rumor that Benning was called about a severely regressing (and expensive) Ryan Miller. Then, add in a trade for high-risk forward Zack Kassian, bringing back an aging Brandon Prust in return, and the off-season almost certainly hurt the Canucks in every area of play.

The one place that Vancouver seemed to redeem themselves was at the NHL draft. The team selected right wing Brock Boeser with the 23rd overall pick in Sunrise — and little seems to suggest that the Minnesota native will be anything but a strong contributor in a few years’ time. He’ll join two-way centre Jared McCann and energetic power forward Jake Virtanen as quality NHL-calibre players Benning took in the first round of the last two drafts. Since Cody Hodgson was the last player drafted by Vancouver — in any round — to hit over 100 NHL games played, the team needs these three to join Bo Horvat as draft successes.

Trending Up

Christopher Tanev (RD): Possibly Vancouver’s most valuable free agent pickup in years, Tanev is about to finally get the pay raise he’s long deserved. Once told he wouldn’t make it playing pro hockey because he’s too small, the 6 foot 2 blue liner finished his 2014-2015 campaign with moderate offensive output (2G, 18A, 70GP) and some of the team’s best underlying possession numbers for yet another season.

It depends on where Tanev is being used, but his recent five-year extension suggest that the Canucks are willing to let the 25 year old blue liner shoulder some responsibility next year. He won’t be a total replacement for the recently-shipped out Kevin Bieksa, but he’s a band-aid for what could be some pretty godawful possession numbers next year. For Canucks fans, he’s going to be a strong part of the reason next year isn’t awful to watch — after putting in the work to earn a $4.5M AAV cap hit, there’s little evidence to suggest that Tanev won’t be one of the Canucks’ strongest contributors next year.

Bo Horvat (C): It came as a bit of a surprise when London Knights forward Max Domi was re-assigned to the major juniors last fall and Bo Horvat wasn’t. Horvat certainly saw some growing pains last year that Domi managed to likely avoid with an extra year in the OHL. That being said, the now-20 year old centre is primed to have a breakout year this season. Like Tanev, there’s little to suggest that Horvat won’t be one of the team’s bright spots on what could be a pretty miserable season.

Horvat finished his rookie year with 13 goals and 25 points over a 68 game sample size, suggesting that he was on pace for somewhere between 15 and 20 goals over a full season. What makes him more likely to finish in 2016 with 20 goals than with 15, though, is that he struggled to find a consistency in his game last year. Now that the Rodney, Ontario native is more accustomed to the speed and spacing of the NHL game, expect his numbers game-to-game to improve.

Where the Canucks aren’t sure if Horvat or Sutter will be the team’s second line centre next year, it’s hard to tell exactly which option would be more beneficial. Horvat is certainly trending up, but he’s probably got a season or two left before he hits his true career numbers; seeing him in a third line role shouldn’t be a red flag next year. If he does get that second line job, though, look to see how he handles the responsibility as a top six contributor behind the Sedin’s. When they’re gone, he and Jared McCann will almost certainly be the two looked upon to make the post-Sedin transition less painful.

Trending Down:

Ryan Miller (G): The writing has been on the walls for a few seasons now, and it’s becoming nearly impossible to deny that 35-year old Ryan Miller is a severely depreciating asset. From an advanced numbers standpoint, he struggled more last season than Arizona Coyotes starter Mike Smith and Philadelphia Flyers backup Ray Emery — only having a more successful year than Ben Scrivens in Edmonton. From a technical evaluation standpoint, few can look at Miller without observing that he’s losing his speed and flexibility in a big way.

If Jacob Markstrom’s extra AHL time over the last few seasons was all that the younger netminder needed to become the bona fide NHLer everyone expected him to be, things could be fine in Vancouver. Eddie Lack’s ability to shoulder a big chunk of the starts in the 2014-2015 season were a big part of the reason that the Canucks saw post-season action last year, and a repeat performance from Markstrom could have them overachieving for yet another year. Those good games don’t look much like they’ll be coming from Miller, though, and that makes his $6M AAV cap hit a huge problem.

Alex Burrows (LW): As Vancouver’s fourth highest paid forward in 2015-2016, and he should be the team’s fourth highest offensive contributor — but he’s not. He finished the 2014-2015 campaign with only 33 points in 70 regular season games, and he’s been on that downward trend for a while.

All four of Vancouver’s top paid forwards are the same age, so saying that ‘Burrows will regress because he’s 34 and counting’ is a polite way of saying that ‘Burrows, both Sedins, and Radim Vrbata will all regress to some degree, because they’re all 34 and counting’. It’s a painful situation for the club to be in, especially since Burrows is signed with a NTC through the end of the 2016-2017 season. If he has another year where he barely crests 30 points — or, worse yet, drops below the 30 point mark altogether — then the Canucks will only continue to feel the burn of their biggest deals; that would put the veteran winger in bottom six production territory making top six money, and with still one more season to go. That, like Ryan Miller’s deal, is a huge problem.

Trade Deadline Outlook:

Nearly every stat projection has the Canucks getting significantly worse in the 2015-2016 season. Unless Ryan Miller reverses what’s now a multi-year regressive trend, Jacob Markstrom records his first season of good numbers in the NHL, the Sedin twins and Radim Vrbata all fail to regress even a little bit, and players like Virtanen and Horvat immediately become NHL-calibre talent, the team will plummet out of playoff contention.

The Canucks need Brandon Sutter to start exponentially increasing the number of zone entry attempts he makes, especially if he’s playing with youngsters. Ronald Kenins and Derek Dorsett are expected to regress, so they’ll need to buck those predictions. Alexandre Burrows needs to stop his own age-based regression, and Luca Sbisa needs to get significantly better in every single category of play.

It seems unlikely that more than one or two of those hypotheticals will come true, so it’s best to examine the Canucks as sellers this year. Not many teams are willing to take on expensive, aging forwards for very much in return — much less a pair of them who refuse to play apart from one another — so moving the Sedins isn’t even something to consider. If a team is still willing to call Benning about Ryan Miller, though, that’s a move the GM needs to make.

One of Vancouver’s biggest mistakes this summer was sending out Clendening and a second round draft pick with Bonino in exchange for only Sutter and a lower draft pick in return. If there’s anything the Canucks need to hold on to, it’s prospects — Clendening is only 22 — and high draft selections; if the team finishes poorly, not much will separate that second rounder from a low first round position. That gives Pittsburgh a potential first round pick-calibre player that Vancouver almost certainly needs.

Players like Derek Dorsett, Luca Sbisa, Ryan Miller, and Alex Burrows will all almost certainly be making above market value next year, as will Brandon Sutter. It seems unlikely that Sutter will want to waive his no-trade clause to help the team, but the other four need to be approached if a team is even remotely interested in them. Benning left himself with very little cap space to work with next year, and the Canucks could find themselves backed into a corner rather quickly if he doesn’t try to shed some of that salary at the first signs of a missed playoff year. Most of his poor contracts aren’t Toews and Kane money-sized, but they are painful for bottom six talent — which is what most of his poor signings are.

Written by Catherine Silverman, who can be found on twitter @CataCarryOn

Canucks: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects and Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Potential line combinations, defensive pairings, and goalies.

Daniel Sedin – Henrik Sedin – Alexandre Burrows
Sven Baertschi – Brandon Sutter – Radim Vrbata
Chris Higgins – Bo Horvat – Brandon Prust
Derek Dorsett – Linden Vey – Jannik Hansen
Brendan Gaunce – Adam Cracknell

Alexander Edler – Chris Tanev
Dan Hamhuis – Yannick Weber
Luca Sbisa – Matt Bartkowski
Frank Corrado

Ryan Miller
Jacob Markstrom

Canucks: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects and Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Some top Vancouver Canucks prospect lists heading into the season.

* Different sites have different guidelines for who is a ‘prospect.’

A look at the Vancouver Canucks drafting from 2010 to 2015.

Canucks: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects and Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Vancouver Canucks 2014-15 player stats.

Canucks: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects and Draft History | Stats | Schedule

A look at the Vancouver Canucks 2015-16 schedule.

Canucks: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects and Draft History | Stats | Schedule