With the free agent class mostly settled into new homes, it’s time to start speculating on next year’s UFA group. While the 2014-15 cohort lacked elite impact players, next season’s list of potential free agents offers star power at many positions – if teams let these players get that far.
Here you’ll find a look at the top ten free agent forwards for the 2015-16 free agent frenzy. If you missed part 1, rankings 6 to 10 can be found here.
The ranking will be based on a combination of four factors. First, the overall likelihood that the player will actually reach free agency. While difficult to judge with certainty, the list is more meaningful if it highlights the players most likely to actually switch teams next July. Second, the player’s overall skill set will be considered – their individual production and their impact on the play of teammates. Third, the player’s likely contract value will factor in. Fourth, age considerations will play a role in moving names up and down the list.
** Please note the order: the likelihood that a player will actually reach free agency takes precedence over all other factors.**
On with the countdown.
5. Radim Vrbata – Vancouver Canucks
Right Wing – 34 years old – $5 million
Likelihood of free agency: 9/10
The Vancouver Canucks are in the midst of what could be a long rebuild. The team is thin below the NHL level, the Sedin brothers are aging, and long-time stalwarts like Kevin Bieksa and Ryan Kesler have moved on as the team reshapes and moves towards a more youthful roster.
In this atmosphere, Radim Vrbata is an expensive luxury that doesn’t likely fit in long term.
At 34 years old, the Czech-native continues to display fantastic hands, finesses, and excellent offensive vision. He netted 31 goals last year with the Canucks and continues to add offensive punch from the right wing position. Vrbata remains an excellent, shifty skater who has registered five seasons of 20 goals or more since 2007-08.
Vrbata’s advanced stats show that he’s still capable of being a complementary all-around piece for a competitive roster. His individual production is almost first-line quality, including an impressive goals per 60 rate. His defensive impact on his teammates is underrated and strong. Most impressively, Vrbata displays an elite ability to improve the offensive work of his linemates.
The Canucks are unlikely to pursue a new deal with the winger before next summer. Expect the 34-year-old to be a trade deadline rental next season and a highly-sought veteran scoring option next summer.
4. Tomas Plekanec – Montreal Canadiens
Centre – 32 years old – $5 milion
Likelihood of free agency: 6/10
After a stirring season by goaltender Carey Price and a playoff run that ended in the Conference Semi Finals, the Canadiens fancy themselves a post-season contender. Though Plekanec doesn’t fit the mould of a typical first-line centre (5’11, 198 lbs.), the Czech-native serves in the top line role for the Habs and there’s little competition to unseat him. Alex Galchenyuk may develop enough to take the top line role, but that isn’t imminent. The Habs need Plekanec and may not let their long-time centreman test free agency.
But, the top-line centre fit is somewhat awkward for Plekanec. While he is praised for his quickness, playmaking, and hockey sense, he doesn’t possess the size for the role. His scoring numbers do little to justify his status as a number one centre as well – his career high was 70 points in 09-10. If the soon-to-be 33-year-old Plekanec is looking for a raise on his $5 million salary after next season, the Habs may be tempted to move on.
Plekanec’s advanced stats show a player who can be effective in a supporting role. His individual numbers, particularly his goals per 60, are second-line quality. His primary points rate is very reasonable as well. Defensively, Plekanec has a very positive impact on his linemates in preventing goals against (GA60 +/-). As a second-unit centreman for a contending club, Plekanec’s mix of supporting offense and good defensive capabilities make him an attractive piece.
3. David Backes – St. Louis Blues
Centre – 31 years old – $4.5 million
Likelihood of free agency: 6/10
The St. Louis Blues have made the playoffs in each of Ken Hitchcock’s four seasons as head coach. But, Hitchcock is on the last year of his deal with Blues and the team has suffered two first-round losses in the past two years. T.J. Oshie was traded for veteran Troy Brouwer this offseason and the Blues seem to feel that their time to compete for the Stanley Cup is now. If this group falls short again, GM Doug Armstrong may look to retool the roster.
If changes come, long-time captain David Backes could lead the exodus. Now 31-years-old, Backes has registered more than 0.58 points per game and more than two shots per game in every season since 2008-09. Defensively, Backes is seen as an on-ice leader who can handle tough assignments, deliver hits, play multiple positions, and lead by example.
While Backes’ reputation is somewhat overblown, the Blues’ leader is a very capable all-around player. His offensive production is second-line worthy, though his rate of primary assists inches into first-line level. Backes does improve the shot generation and suppression of his linemates and improves their offensive work, though he isn’t elite in either category. This may be linked to his penchant for taking himself out of the play in pursuit of punishing body checks.
Still, Backes has experience as a captain and has a long history of strong contributions on offense and defense. If the Blues embrace a full roster restructuring, Backes is still young enough to move on and help with another team. If he seeks a salary similar to his current $4.5 million average annual value, he represents a great addition for a team in need of two-way leadership with some offensive punch.
2. Milan Lucic – Los Angeles Kings
Left wing – 27 years old – $6 million
Likelihood of free agency: 7/10
Lucic was traded away this summer as part of Don Sweeney’s sweeping roster changes for the Boston Bruins. Trading the 27-year-old winger was a surprise move as Lucic is young and remains under club control for another season. Now a member of the Los Angeles Kings, Lucic is set to enjoy a run for the Stanley Cup with a team built to win now.
However, after five straight post-season berths and two Stanley Cups, the Los Angeles Kings missed the playoffs entirely last year. The Kings’ core remains in place – Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Jonathan Quick – and another post-season run might attract Lucic to stay in L.A. But Lucic didn’t choose his new hometown and may opt to explore his options as a free agent next summer.
Lucic offers a unique package of size, skill, and personality. He is a nasty and intimidating presence and consistently drives to the net to create offense. He’s topped 20 goals three times and routinely sits between 0.5 and 0.75 points per game. Lucic remains squarely in his prime and has much to offer on the free agent market if he decides to explore his options.
Lucic’s individual production is on the cusp of first-line quality. He is a capable goal-scorer and his primary points and primary assists stats show that he is usually directly involved in the offense. His overall impact on the possession and goal rates for his linemates is elite. Lucic regularly contributes to positive Corsi and goals for rates and is an underrated team player on both sides of the puck.
At 27-years-old and playing out his contract in L.A., Lucic rumours will heat up as the season wears on. He’s a power forward in a league that has few elite power wingers left. A number of teams could be expected to offer Lucic a raise on his already sizable pay.
1. Andrew Ladd – Winnipeg Jets
Left wing – 29 years old – $4.4 million
Likelihood of free agency: 6/10
It’s not certain that Ladd will make it to free agency next summer. The Winnipeg Jets are on the cusp to becoming a playoff team and the 29-year-old captain is a key contributor on offense, defense, and in the locker room.
But the Jets are in tough.
Captain Ladd and star defenseman Dustin Byfuglien are both in line for new contracts next summer. The Jets have been a “budget team” in the past, which is likely to continue to limit the team’s spending below the top of the cap. With a raise for Byfuglien (currently at $5.2 million) and for Ladd (currently at $4.4 mil), the Jets may be forced to turn to their deep pool of prospects to find an internal (and cheaper) replacement.
If available, Ladd would be the class of the free agent cohort. He is respected for his leadership and scoring ability. He has good size, plays fast and tough, and offers defensive skill with his complementary offensive skill set. He’s scored above 0.61 points per game since joining the Jets franchise in 2009-10 and has managed more than two shots per game during that time.
Advanced stats set Ladd apart. He is a clear first-liner in individual production, possession impact, and goals impact. He contributes goals and primary assists at an All-Star rate, but his teammate impact is even more impressive. His possession rates are elite and his impact on linemates’ goals for percentage is among the best in the NHL. Ladd’s two-way game is for real.
While the Jets are likely loathe to let Ladd leave Winnipeg, the team will be in tough next year. Ladd will be 30 years old, Byfuglien will need a new contract, the Jets are dealing with an internal salary cap, and a host of young stars-in-waiting (Nik Ehlers, Joel Armia, etc…) could be ready to play by 2016. Ladd may be available and, if he is, he’s the most desirable free agent set to hit the 2016 market.
Written by Sean Tierney, who can be found @SeanTierneyTSS
