Is the Joe Pavelski signing written in the stars? Now, Pavelski signed a three-year deal with Dallas mostly because the Tampa Bay Lightning could not come up with quite enough money. However, Dallas believes that they have solved their second-line center problem for the next few seasons.
Even though the Mats Zuccarello acquisition helped last year, Dallas needed a center even more than a winger. They also sought help on the man advantage where a player like Pavelski excelled. With a stronger middle, Dallas can address second-line right wing help from within or wait until later.
Let’s take a quick look at what Joe Pavelski brings to the table for Dallas.
What Joe Pavelski means to the Dallas Stars
Pavelski is a center who can score goals but also distributes well and plays some defense. The only drawback is the age — which is approaching 35 in days. That means his three-year deal spans to almost 38. He expects to lose a step or two by then but his production could remain fairly consistent. The last three years have seen point totals of 68, 66, and 64 respectively.
Faceoff wins have been in the 53-54% range in that time with a career percentage win rate of 55%. Pavelski took draws at the rate of a second liner throughout most of his career in San Jose. He expects to do much the same in Dallas.
Pavelski’s biggest asset is net-front presence. He is at his best when it comes to deflections around the net. If it feels like a third of his goals come that way, one is not far off. Over the last three seasons, that has been the case. Just having that presence will help Dallas considering other players may get chances just because of Pavelski being on the ice. Space will open up.
Joe Pavelski boosts a top-ten power-play unit for that reason alone. Dallas will be a scary team to play against for a few other reasons too.
A little Joe Pavelski numerology…
Pavelski possesses the puck very well much like Joe Thornton. Again, the difference is Pavelski is not allergic to shooting the said puck. As the Bill Comeau SKATR solo viz suggests, many parts of the center’s game are still in that elite range. Those include relative possession, shooting percentage, penalty differential, and expected goals.
Expected goals were something Dallas floundered around for most of last season. Penalty differential became inconsistent at times and the shooting percentage was nearly a disaster too often.
Scoring chances from the middle-six were like a hollow cavern too often. Pavelski should be able to feed off from Jamie Benn and vice versa. Benn benefits in a big way from this deal.
Again, this deal gives Dallas two scoring threats down the middle of the ice. This will open more space up on the wings ultimately. Do not be surprised if Joe Pavelski’s shot numbers bump back up to what they were a couple of seasons ago. Last year seemed to be a blip in that department as he was way more selective (under 300 attempts for the first time ever). That fails to include the shortened season. So, do not expect that again or the 20.1% shooting percentage.
A few final words on Joe Pavelski
Could 30 goals be a possibility in Dallas? That answer is yes. The center scored 26 goals on the man advantage in the previous three seasons and there is no reason to believe he won’t come close to double digits there again. A 30-30 season or something close would not surprise many. After all, Pavelski expects to not play 19-20 minutes but can at times. That versatility expects to serve him well during his time in Dallas.
