Kevin Hayes signed a seven-year, $50 million contract with the Philadelphia Flyers Tuesday night. Philadelphia locks in a second-line center who can mesh well with their wingers. What impact may it have down the road and what does it mean now? Let’s take a look.
Kevin Hayes contract explained (updated)
Again, thanks to CapFriendly, contracts are easier to dive into quickly. He earns $7,142,857 for the 2019-20 campaign. Additionally, there exists an NMC and signing bonuses as follows:
The deal includes a no-movement clause for the first three years, then a 12-team no-trade for the remainder of term, as reported by @PuckPedia
— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) June 19, 2019
The salary cap hit comes in at $7.143 million AAV for the deal. He comes into the prime years of his career. At the age of 27, the deal would end when Hayes turns 34. Some have talked about the Alain Vigneault system, but it may be a little different in Philadelphia where the offense and use for Hayes expect to be different.
Now, it is a straight contract which again sets the market for a player like William Karlsson. Currently, Hayes is the 18th-highest paid center in the league. In terms of approximate cap hit, the percentage is 8.98%.
The seven years down that long and winding road for Kevin Hayes
Hayes is currently 27-years old. When the contract ends, Eberle will be 34 (past his prime likely). The question becomes what happens to Philadelphia towards the tail end of this deal.
Chuck Fletcher emphasized changing culture. Fletcher bought out Andrew MacDonald, traded for Matt Niskanen and Justin Braun. He shipped out Radko Gudas in the Niskanen deal. There is a belief that Fletcher is far from done.
How much does Hayes bounce back from his time in Winnipeg? The center wound up a healthy scratch and/or played bottom six minutes in the playoffs. He had three points in six playoff games (13 in 20 regular season games).
Hayes’ ice time with the New York Rangers is important to look at here as he could see more minutes to take the burden off of Sean Couturier. This would also allow Claude Giroux to stay mostly on the wing. Hayes played over 19 minutes a night with New York and was able to handle things well.
Going down the line, the center is a solid value given the pay scale that has become the norm in the league. Hayes meshing well with James van Riemsdyk and Jakub Voracek could make for an intriguing second line.
The later years of the deal could become problematic for a bigger power-center. However, Hayes in the last season or so learned to use his frame better even in front of the net. That could be an asset Philadelphia coaching uses as the contract goes on.
Some important notes
Among other things, we can use the charts from Sean Tierney here to help. Hayes presented as one of the few New York Ranger forwards last year that was positive in player shot rates, chances, etc. Even in expected goals, Hayes lowered the expected goals against and enjoyed a third of a goal advantage at 5-on-5.
Is Hayes capable of producing 60-plus point seasons? In Philadelphia, that is at least plausible. He had 55 points last season split between New York and Winnipeg. He enjoyed a +6.6% relative compared to the average New York Rangers’ possession metrics. That is sizable on what was a horrid team defensively. Philadelphia expects to be a little of the same.
Truthfully, if Hayes meshes well with his linemates, this signing carries value to Philadelphia. It is clear that the Flyers do not trust Nolan Patrick with the keys to the top-six just yet. That may happen in time but that time is not now.
The later questions down the line form into this final one. What will Hayes be at age 32,33, or 34? Concerns exist with Hayes and Alain Vigneault co-existing, however, Hayes is a couple of years older now. Thanks to Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic, this handy upside chart paints at least one picture of what may occur.
SIGNING
Flyers: Kevin Hayes $7.14M x 7 yearsA nice player who can fit well with Flyers' winger depth. Should be a decent top six centre for much of his contract, but term looks lengthy and the team didn't get a discount for it. pic.twitter.com/jJSoMuocPc
— dom luszczyszyn (@domluszczyszyn) June 19, 2019
Again, Philadelphia destined not to get a discount as Hayes was looking for maximum dollars. Some mentioned Hayes could get $7 million AAV on the market and sure enough, the amount came in close. Evolving Wild projected Hayes at $5.87 million for six years.
Kevin Hayes fits in well enough with Philadelphia. Now, the question is what comes next?
