After back-to-back Stanley Cup Final losses to the Florida Panthers, the Edmonton Oilers finally enter the 2025-26 season as the betting favorite to capture hockey’s most elusive prize. According to the latest odds from the sportsbook at Casino Canada, the Oilers are listed between +650 and +850 to win the Stanley Cup, narrowly edging out the Panthers and Avalanche in many markets. The presence of generational talent Connor McDavid and superstar Leon Draisaitl fuels that optimism. This duo has propelled Edmonton to perennial postseason relevance, yet has consistently left them just short of ultimate victory.
The opening months of the new campaign carry heightened stakes. McDavid is entering the last year of his contract and is eligible for a new deal, and there are persistent questions about his willingness to commit long-term if the Oilers cannot finish the job. Management, led by new GM Stan Bowman, has repeatedly insisted that extension talks with McDavid are progressing. Still, a third consecutive missed opportunity could significantly impact the franchise’s trajectory.
Recent Playoff Runs: Close but Not Enough
Over the past five years, Edmonton has evolved from a talented but incomplete roster into a team regularly fighting deep into the Stanley Cup playoffs. Since 2021, they’ve posted regular-season records no lower than 35-19-2 and have reached the playoffs every season. Their postseason journey began modestly in 2021, with a first-round exit, before gradually advancing each year. In 2022, the Oilers fell in the Conference Finals after winning two rounds. In 2023, they secured a first-round win but couldn’t survive the next hurdle, bowing out in the Conference Semi-Finals.
The past two years have marked a dramatic shift. Edmonton won three rounds in 2024 and 2025, advancing to the Stanley Cup Final before losing to Florida each time. In the 2025 Final, the Oilers fell in six games, despite producing strong offensive statistics throughout the bracket. These deep runs have showcased Edmonton’s ability to score and move the puck, but have also exposed vulnerabilities, especially in defensive depth and goaltending reliability when facing well-structured opponents.
Betting Lines and Odds
Entering the 2025-26 season, the Edmonton Oilers stand as favorites for Stanley Cup contention and within their own conference and division. Sportsbooks have posted the Oilers with Western Conference futures ranging from +325 to +400, slightly ahead of rivals like the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars. Edmonton is again the frontrunner in the Pacific Division, with opening odds between +150 and +200; no team has shorter odds to claim the division crown. This optimism is fueled by the sustained dominance of Connor McDavid, whose MVP (Hart Trophy) odds have been set at a league-best +190 to +200, making him the clear favorite for his fourth Most Valuable Player award. McDavid’s odds and Edmonton’s team projections reflect industry-wide expectations that he and the Oilers will be at the center of the NHL’s most prominent storylines for yet another season.
Roster Moves and Key Contracts
The Oilers’ efforts to overcome their postseason obstacles have involved a series of targeted acquisitions and re-signings. Most notably, the team acquired shutdown defenseman Mattias Ekholm at the 2023 trade deadline, sacrificing assets to stabilize their blue line and mentor younger players. Ekholm has become a cornerstone of Edmonton’s blueline, easing pressure on Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard.
Leon Draisaitl, who inked his extension after the 2024 Cup run, remains integral to Edmonton’s attack. Meanwhile, the team has also been proactive about future salary cap concerns. Recent moves include trading Evander Kane and Viktor Arvidsson for draft capital and bringing in young talent like Isaac Howard. These transactions signal a focus on sustainability and internal growth, but they also signal the reality of difficult cap decisions that could impact the supporting cast around McDavid and Draisaitl moving forward.
Connor McDavid: The Looming Decision
Connor McDavid’s contract status is the dominant storyline. He is eligible for a maximum eight-year extension. Still, insiders suggest he may pursue a shorter-term deal, possibly in the four-year range, at a record average annual value between $16 million and $17.5 million per season. McDavid has expressed a desire to win a Stanley Cup with Edmonton but has been non-committal on his long-term future, indicating he will take time to reflect before making a decision.
The Oilers are hopeful, with management emphasizing patience and respect for McDavid’s process. Should Edmonton fail to break through, the risk of McDavid opting for free agency becomes very real, heralding what could be a transformational shift in the NHL landscape. The stakes for the Oilers are as high as they’ve ever been.
Statistical Profile and Path Forward
Edmonton ranks among the league’s top teams in regular-season goal production, power-play efficiency, and even-strength possession statistics. In 2024-25, they boasted a record of 48-29-5, their offense led by McDavid, who routinely finishes among the NHL’s points leaders. Their playoff record in the last half-decade is one of consistency: making the postseason six straight years, reaching the Final twice, and winning multiple rounds in three of five campaigns.
However, the lessons from recent Finals losses center on defense, depth, and the capacity to withstand the grinding playoff format. Edmonton’s management is betting on combining continuity, cap flexibility, and strategic upgrades to address these concerns. Whether these efforts are enough will be tested road by road in the coming season, as much of the hockey world watches McDavid’s future with bated breath.
Outlook: Pressure, Opportunity, and the Next Chapter
The Oilers enter 2025-26 positioned as favorites yet grappling with history and the high expectations that come with extended contention. With the allure of a Stanley Cup and the shadow of potential change surrounding McDavid, the opportunity and pressure could not be greater. Success would reinforce Edmonton’s blueprint for team building, while another disappointment might precipitate a reexamination of their core structure.
As the season unfolds, the question remains whether Edmonton can transform years of near-misses into lasting triumph. The answer will shape not only their narrative but the franchise’s future.