Rumblings had been simmering all day about an offer sheet coming for Sebastian Aho. Sure enough, the afternoon bore fruit as the Montreal Canadiens fired the first shot. This was a bit unexpected. However, Marc Bergevin struck out on Artemi Panarin and Matt Duchene, he had to do something.
The Sebastian Aho Offer Sheet
Again, there are some interesting wrinkles to this offer. For one, let’s make it clear. Sebastian Aho signed the offer sheet. The deal is for five years at an AAV (average annual value) of $8.454 million. That would cost Montreal a 2020 first, second, and third-round picks.
The wrinkles begin right away with $21 million of the contract paid in the first 12 months. Now, the other is the salary breakdown as follows.
Breakdown of Aho offer sheet: $11.3M SB plus 700k salary in Year 1; $9.87M SB plus 700k salary in Year 2; $6.95 SB plus 750k salary in Year 3; $5.25 SB plus $750k in each of Year 4 and Year 5
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) July 1, 2019
Basically, year one features a $12 million salary and year two is still $10.57 million. The salary falls gradually to $6 million for years four and five. In short, this is still a bargain. Sebastian Aho turns 22 in the summer and this would be a deal that takes him right up to the unrestricted free agency.
Aho comes off a career year where he tallied 83 points with 30 goals. Furthermore, in three seasons, he missed just four games. His relative possession metrics are almost +4% above the team average on one of the better possession teams in the league.
His game score is a 94 which is elite and his on-ice shooting percentage at even strength crossed 10%. Aho scores well at distribution and relative possession. In the underlying departments, it is only his shooting percentage which is a small concern. Other than that, the forward has the potential to eventually top 90, if not 100 points.
What the Sebastian Aho Offer Sheet means to the Carolina Hurricanes
In theory, it is a wake-up call and little more for Carolina. It starts the clock at seven days in which Carolina has to re-sign their franchise forward. If they do not, then Montreal has helped themselves beef up their middle considerably.
The Hurricanes signed 15 players and have nearly $22.7 million in cap space (at press time). There appears to be more than enough money to sign their remaining free agents, another goalie or two, and still be under the cap. One question remains.
Do they match the offer sheet? Again, this looks to be a no-brainer of a situation. Aho gets locked up for five years at a reasonable AAV and the last two years are very easy to take moneywise.
Another way to look at it is this. Is Sebastian Aho worth more than a first, second, and third on a team likely not to be in the playoff hunt? If the answer is yes, then that is another reason to match.
Also, the cap hit is just over 10% which is hardly terrible for a top player. Think about what was just shelled out to Artemi Panarin earlier today or even Jeff Skinner before free agency. Would Carolina short-circuit their team’s future over less than a million dollars? It is believed Carolina offered Aho a contract with an AAV of $7.5 million.
The expectation dictates that the Carolina Hurricanes will match the Sebastian Aho offer sheet. However, one has to give credit to Marc Bergevin for rolling the dice and trying this maneuver anyway. Although, going higher might have given Carolina more reason to ponder. Stay tuned!
