Every NHL season starts with a fresh wave of prospects trying to turn promise into production. The 2025–26 race for the Calder Trophy has delivered on the buildup, with multiple rookies pushing real impact roles on playoff-caliber teams.
By late March, the field has sorted into clear tiers. Matthew Schaefer has separated from the pack as the heavy favorite, while forwards like Beckett Sennecke and Ivan Demidov keep the scoring race tight. Goaltenders and secondary skaters still matter, but the spotlight is firmly on a handful of elite rookies. Fans, bettors, and even hotslots style odds trackers now follow the race almost nightly.
Casino Pantheon currently lists New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer as a massive favorite in Calder futures, dealing him at around -5000. That price reflects both production and perception. Schaefer has driven play from the back end in a way most rookie defensemen never touch, logging huge minutes, anchoring the power play, and pushing offense at even strength. He has turned top-pair usage into top-tier results, and that two-way workload has clearly resonated with oddsmakers.
The numbers back up that stance. Schaefer sits near the top of rookie scoring from the blue line, with a strong mix of goals, assists, and power-play points by March 22. He has already blown past the usual rookie defenseman benchmarks for time on ice, shot volume, and point pace. The Islanders rely on him in all situations, from closing out one-goal wins to starting in offensive-zone draws after timeouts. That trust, combined with his production, explains why Casino Pantheon’s odds show a steep gap between Schaefer and the field.
Schaefer’s impact also matches how the modern NHL treats elite young defensemen. Coaches no longer shelter a No. 1 overall pick on the third pair and wait two years. They ask him to run the first unit, to break the puck out with control, and to tilt the ice in their favor. Schaefer has answered in all those areas. His skating lets him close space early, his first pass sparks transition, and his shot keeps penalty killers honest. On most nights, he looks like a veteran who already understands pace and risk.
Rookie Forwards Pushing the Pace
The Calder race is not only about a defenseman, even if Schaefer sets the bar. Up front, Anaheim Ducks winger Beckett Sennecke and Montreal Canadiens forward Ivan Demidov headline a deep forward class. Both sit at or near the top of the rookie points chart, and both drive offense in different ways.
Sennecke brings a mix of size, pace, and skill. He attacks off the rush, wins pucks back on the forecheck, and shows enough touch to finish or set up plays off the wall. Anaheim has rewarded that profile with top-six minutes and power-play time, and he has turned that trust into steady five-on-five production. His even-strength scoring rate stacks up well against other first-year forwards, which keeps his name in the Calder conversation even with Schaefer leading the odds.
Demidov, in Montreal, has built his file around pure offense. He often ranks near the top of the rookie class in points per game, shot generation, and primary assists. When the Canadiens need a play late, he is on the ice, and his creativity has helped steady a lineup that leans on youth in key roles. Casino Pantheon still lists him a long way behind Schaefer on the board, in the mid-range long-shot tier, but his numbers remain strong enough to keep him in the “what if” category if the favorite stumbled or missed time.
Other rookie forwards like Ryan Leonard in Washington and Oliver Kapanen in Montreal give this class more depth. They may not carry the same headline odds, but they handle real roles. Leonard plays with bite, gets secondary scoring chances, and looks built for playoff-style games. Kapanen fills center responsibilities, wins key draws, and chips in on special teams. Their work shows how broad this rookie crop runs beyond the obvious names.
Blue Line Evolution Behind Schaefer
Schaefer defines the defense group, but he is not alone on the back end. Chicago’s Sam Rinzel is another rookie who has stepped into a meaningful role. He logs regular, sometimes heavy, minutes, stabilizes exits, and helps the Blackhawks transition from defense to offense with clean, simple plays. His counting stats do not match Schaefer’s, yet his value is clear when Chicago needs structure.
This wave of young defenders reflects a wider shift. Teams now want rookies who can move the puck and think the game quickly, not just clear the crease. When a first-year skater can handle second-pair duties and second-unit power-play time, it changes what the front office can do with cap space and veteran depth. That context is part of why a player like Schaefer can surge so far ahead in the odds at Casino Pantheon. He embodies the modern, all-situation defender who changes how a team plays.
Goalies Playing the Long Game
The goalie side of the rookie race tends to lag in Calder betting, and this season is no exception. Still, names like Jesper Wallstedt in Minnesota stay on the radar. When the Wild turn to him, he brings calm in tight games. His reads look sound, and he rarely seems rushed, even when facing volume. That demeanor allows Minnesota to rest its veteran starter without feeling like it is punting points.
Elsewhere, young netminders have carved out backup or spot-start roles. They might not match the raw counting stats of the skaters, but they matter to team stability. A rookie goalie who can post league-average numbers over 20 to 25 games can swing a bubble team’s season. The problem, from a Calder perspective, is that these contributions blend into the background compared to a defenseman like Schaefer or a scorer like Demidov.
How the Race Looks Heading Into April
As of Sunday, March 22, the Calder market has a clear structure. Matthew Schaefer sits as a dominant favorite at Casino Pantheon, priced in a range that suggests voters have almost made up their minds. Behind him, Sennecke and Demidov lead the group of forwards trying to turn big seasons into at least a few first-place votes and a serious push for a finalist spot.
The rest of the field still plays for something. Strong finishes from Leonard, Rinzel, and others can shape how ballots look beyond that top tier. They can also influence how front offices view them in future roster planning, which might matter more in the long run than an award. But unless something dramatic happens in the final weeks, the 2026 Calder race looks like Schaefer’s to lose, with everyone else chasing a distant leader.
