Hello everyone and welcome to something new here at NHL Rumors. Already, we can hear the grumblings that the trade deadline is a mere ten days away. Our goal with this short column will be to try and take the trending news and apply it to any odds and implied probability updates.
In short, what are the chances a player may be traded compared with analysis. The fun part of this is we get to use a betting calculator. Toys are good after all. As more players come up at a variety of places, further updates will come.
Anyway, let’s begin.
NHL Trade Deadline Odds Calculator – P.K. Subban
We lead off with a doozy. One of the toughest players to trade may just be P.K. Subban of the New Jersey Devils. The arguments here are numerous. There is something about that big salary of $9 million. Also, he is nowhere near the offensive threat he once was (18 points in 54 games).
The decline began in his final year with Nashville (31 points in 63 games). The former Norris Trophy winner had 59 points just the year before. Most thought it was a blip. It was not sadly.
Thanks to Play Now, there are numbers, albeit in decimal form (we convert it for you), to look at how the betting side of the market looks at the trade trends. Numbers suggest that Subban is not likely to be moved at the deadline. How low are his chances?
Right now, the defenseman stands at about 20% chance of being moved by New Jersey by March 21st. Naturally things can change but the strange thing is the NO part comes in at 87.72%. Typically, the numbers do not always add up to 100%. It is why they call it implied probability.
Salary, ability, and fit are all problematic here for Subban. There may be suitors but it will have to come at a price for New Jersey. It seems most scouts and reality dictate the most he can be is a good 5 or 6 at this point. That comes with a possible PP2 unit upside.
Jakob Chychrun — The Odds Of Getting Traded
The Arizona Coyotes defenseman is a fun one. Jakob Chychrun had one of the most offensively inept first halves no one ever could have expected. Nevermind the +/- and the defensive metrics, it was abysmal in every way. Right now, the defenseman is on fire with eight points in his last five games.
It may not take the sting out of the start but this shows the value he has for a contending team. The question is this. Does Arizona pull the trigger on a trade? He is at a pretty friendly cap hit with term (3 more years, $4.6 million AAV).
The early answer is yes. A Chychrun trade works out at around a -160 moneyline in American terms. That gives an implied chance of just over 60% (61.73% to be exact). It seems hard to believe but the upturn in his production only helps. Furthermore, there are multiple teams in the mix. Los Angeles is not the only game in town.
Seven other teams have at least explored the notion of acquiring the All-Star caliber defenseman. Boston and the New York Rangers supposedly were tossed around as having inquired about Chychrun.
Whether that gets done remains to be seen but the trend is for the Arizona defenseman to as Mike Commodore says “pack your bags”.
Could John Klingberg find a new destination?
We have one more in our NHL Trade Deadline odds for defensemen. This is one of those that if the question was asked in February, the numbers probably flip. As of now, John Klingberg stands at about a 41.67% chance of being moved by the Dallas Stars. That is still a very high percentage in trade trending terms.
Dallas is on a mercurial rise through the standings and is now squarely in the Central Division battle for a playoff spot. Klingberg has had some awful luck goal-scoring wise but does have 29 points in 49 games. His 2.3% shooting percentage is unusual but everything else is pretty close to the last couple seasons.
Is he ever going to be confused for a defensively proficient defenseman? Probably not. However, Klingberg does have some value and on the right team is a good complement in the top-four with power-play time.
His top-six Norris Trophy days are likely behind him but for now, it seems Dallas is sticking with him even despite that earlier trade request.
John Klingberg and his NHL Trade Deadline odds could shift and is closer to a 50-50 coin-flip than the first two blueliners. This should be a fun one.
Our next installment for NHL Rumors will look at some more forwards. Please bear with us as the data is a bit slow in coming in. Thanks for reading once again.
