Written by Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell)
In an absolute shocker of a deal the Montreal Canadiens have sent former Norris Trophy winner P.K. Subban to the Nashville Predators in exchange for Captain Shea Weber.
While both are excellent players a few NHL executives seem to think Nashville won the deal. I have a different opinion.
Early thoughts from two phone calls is that Montreal has edge Subban/Weber swap. Scouts/execs love Shea Weber.
— Craig Custance (@CraigCustance) June 29, 2016
Over the last four seasons Subban has recorded 202 points in 274 games (2nd only to Erik Karlsson). In that same span Shea Weber has posted 180 points in 283 games.
Subban has not only tallied more points, but he’s also been more efficient at full-strength, where the majority of each game is played.
From 2012-16 Subban has averaged 1.07 points per 60 minutes at 5 v 5. Weber has averaged .90.
By all accounts Subban is the better offensive player. Weber is better defensively though, right? Wrong.
Over the same four-year span the Predators have controlled 49.4% of the shot attempts 50.9% of the goals with Weber on the ice at 5 v 5. Weber ranks 5th among five Predators’ defensemen (minimum 3,000 minutes) in both categories.
Meanwhile, the Canadiens have controlled 52.1% of the shot attempts and 54.4% of the goals at 5 v 5 with Subban on the ice. He leads all Canadiens’ defensemen in both regards.
On top of better point production and underlying numbers Subban is a better skater, is three years younger and isn’t signed until 2026 when he won’t be 1/5 of the defenseman he is today.
Weber equals Subban in perceived value. The on-ice results favor Subban, though, which is why this trade is a big win for the Predators.
Note: numbers via hockey-reference.com and stats.hockeyanalysis.com.