Written by Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell)
On Alex Steen and the St. Louis Blues …
In Alex Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk and Patrik Berglund, among others, the St. Louis Blues had several notable players set to become unrestricted free agents next summer.
Rather than sitting on their hands the Blues elected to take care of some business early by signing Steen to a long-term contract-extension. Steen put pen to paper on a four-year deal that will see him earn $5.75 million per ($.05M less than he currently makes).
Steen is a solid two-way player and ranks 83rd in 5 v 5 points per 60 minutes played over the last two seasons, making him a 1st line talent, but I don’t love this deal for the Blues. In fact, I think it was quite risky.
Steen is 32 years old and will be 33 prior to his contract kicking in. He has missed at least eight games in eight consecutive seasons (he’s averaged ~12 over the last three years), so staying healthy has been a bit of a problem. He isn’t as effective when in the lineup as he once was, either, as there has been a decline in goals per game, points per game, 5 v 5 shot rates and 5 v 5 points per 60 in consecutive years. That’s likely to continue moving forward.
He is still a good player, and has been underrated for a long time, but he is already starting to show clear signs of decline. Paying a guy almost $6 million per year for his age 33-37 seasons won’t work out more often than not and I think that will probably be the case again here.
On Brad Marchand and the Boston Bruins …
Sticking with contract extensions, the Boston Bruins wasted no time getting forward Brad Marchand re-upped as they signed him to an eight-year deal worth $6.125 million per season.
In a perfect world the term is shorter but I think this is a pretty good deal for the Bruins – at least for a while.
Marchand has scored at least 21 goals in each of his five full seasons. That number may not jump off the page but it’s harder than ever to score, so consistently getting that kind of production is very valuable.
Many will point out Marchand jumped from 21-25 goals per season to 37 last year and suggest he will not be able to match that total again. While that could be true – 37 is a big number – his goal totals weren’t inflated by an unsustainably high shooting percentages as we so often see when there is such a big spike. Marchand simply shot the puck more.
Brad Marchand has always been an elite finisher. His 2015-2016 was a good example of why it’s good to shoot the puck as often as possible. pic.twitter.com/2L6blEh4qG
— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) September 26, 2016
Over the last three seasons Marchand is 19th in 5 v 5 goals and 27th in 5 v 5 points. Some of the many notables Marchand ranks ahead of in both categories over said span include Daniel Sedin, Ryan Johansen, Jakub Voracek, Nicklas Backstrom, Jeff Carter, Claude Giroux and Evgeni Malkin. Marchand may not be a big name but his production suggests he should be.
When you also factor in the Bruins have controlled 57% of the shot attempts and 58.9% of the goals at 5 v 5 with Marchand on the ice over that span – compared to 50.6% and 50.3% without him – it’s hard to argue he isn’t worth more than the $6 million and change he’ll pull in.
Will he be worth the money six, seven and eight years down the line? Probably not, but for a while the Bruins have a high-end player signed for less than he’s worth. They have to find a way to take advantage of that.