With the free agent class mostly settled into new homes, it’s time to start speculating on next year’s UFA group. While the 2014-15 cohort lacked elite impact players, next season’s list of potential free agents offers star power at many positions – if teams let these players get that far.
Here you’ll find a look at the top ten free agent defensemen for the 2015-16 free agent frenzy.
The ranking will be based on a combination of four factors. First, the overall likelihood that the player will actually reach free agency. While difficult to judge with certainty, the list is more meaningful if it highlights the players most likely to actually switch teams next July. Second, the player’s overall skill set will be considered – their individual production and their impact on the play of teammates. Third, the player’s likely contract value will factor in. Fourth, age considerations will play a role in moving names up and down the list.
** Please note the order: the likelihood that a player will actually reach free agency takes precedence over all other factors.**
On with the countdown. Rankings for 6-10 can be read here.
5. Erik Johnson – Colorado Avalanche
Right Defenseman – 27 years old – $3.75 million
Likelihood of free agency: 5/10
The Colorado Avalanche missed the playoffs last season and the team did little to address glaring roster problems this offseason. The forward ranks lack depth at centre ice and the blue line remains a major concern. Though newcomer Francois Beauchemin had a productive season last year, expecting the 35-year-old defenseman to fix a blue line that ranked 22nd in goals against last season is unreasonable. The Avalanche are likely to feel highly motivated to strike a deal with Erik Johnson as the team simply cannot afford to lose their number one defenseman.
Johnson has developed into the type of player that NHL teams drool over. At 6’4, 232 lbs., Johnson is a huge defender. The right-handed shooter has amassed 193 points in 456 games, scoring at an impressive 0.44 points per game clip. His shot is fearsome, his skating continues to be a plus skill (particularly for his size) and Johnson is capable of delivering “bone-rattling” body checks.
Johnson averaged a career-high 24:25 minutes of TOI last season and made the most of the heavy usage. His individual offensive production is top-pairing quality and his goals per 60 is elite among defensemen. His puck management is also very strong. Johnson contributes to many shot attempts for his team and, as his defensive positions improve, he is better able to prevent chances against. Currently earning a paltry $3.75 million, expect Johnson to receive a big raise into the $5 million per year range or beyond.
4. Keith Yandle – New York Rangers
Right Defenseman – 28 years old – $5.25 million
Likelihood of free agency: 6/10
Last season, the long-time Coyotes star defenseman was traded to the Rangers as New York loaded up for its playoff run. Yandle didn’t disappoint in his time with the Rangers and has become the team’s clear offensive leader from the back end.
Yandle enjoyed another explosive offensive season. He registered 41 points in 63 games with Arizona before joining the Rangers and adding 11 points in 21 regular season games. Yandle added 11 more points during the Rangers’ playoff run, demonstrating his elite ability to contribute offensively from the blue line. For his career, Yandle has scored 322 points in 579 games, an excellent 0.56 points per game.
On the ice, Yandle is lauded for his excellent skating, elite puck-handling, strong vision, and top-notch one-timer. At 6’1, 190 lbs., Yandle is not a hulking defenseman and can be victimized by large, imposing forwards who easily displace Yandle from his defensive positions.
The underlying stats confirm what the eye test shows for the talented offensive rearguard. Yandle contributes top-pairing quality offensive production across all categories and is elite in Corsi for percentage. Yandle struggles to prevent the opposition from generating chances against while he’s on the ice. Part of the problem is the years Yandle spent logging heavy minutes in Arizona. But, Yandle’s TOI profile leans heavily towards playing with a lead, so his defensive deficiencies are mostly his own. Still in his prime, expect Yandle to command more than $6 million per season for whatever team decides to ante up for an elite offensive option on the blue line.
3. Dustin Byfuglien – Winnipeg Jets
Left Defenseman – 30 years old – $5.2 million
Likelihood of free agency: 8/10
The Winnipeg Jets are faced with a difficult off-season in 2016. Captain Andrew Ladd, starter Ondrej Pavelec, and Byfuglien become free agents, while talented youngsters Mark Scheifele, Jacob Trouba, and Michael Hutchinson are all restricted free agents. Facing a (rumoured) internal budget, the Jets simply can’t afford to pay up for all of these key players. Now 30-years-old, and set to earn $6 million in real salary this season, Big Buff may price himself out of Winnipeg.
If Byfuglien is traded at the trade deadline and becomes a free agent next off-season, he won’t lack for suitors. At 6’5, 260 lbs., Byfuglien is the only player in the league who compares favourably with Zdeno Chara’s imposing frame and high level skill. Byfuglien’s game isn’t all about intimidation, though. He’s known as a good skater (for his size) with smart offensive instincts, an enormous shot, and the ability to soak up big minutes on the blue line. Consistency, discipline, and acceleration are his biggest drawbacks and, at 30-years-old, these shortcomings aren’t about to change.
Byfuglien isn’t a puck possession master. He’s a passable top-four option in terms of shot generation for his team and shot suppression versus opponents. But Byfuglien’s offensive production is elite – among the top handful of defensemen in the NHL. His booming shot generates scoring chances and Byfuglien is a top-tier difference-maker on offense. If Byfuglien is moved by the Jets to accommodate new contracts for their young core, expect Byfuglien to command in excess of $6 million per year for another club.
2. Alex Goligoski – Dallas Stars
Left Defenseman – 30 years old – $4.6 million
Likelihood of free agency: 7/10
Often overlooked, Goligoski is the anchor for the revamped and underrated Dallas Stars blue line. However, Dallas is tight to the cap and RFAs like Valerie Nichushkin and Brett Ritchie, along with UFA-to-be Jason Demers, will all need new contracts. The cap crunch may create a need to part with a veteran like Goligoski in order to hunt for cheaper talent. With blossoming John Klingberg in the fold and ready to take over the key offensive role, the Stars may be willing to move on.
Goligoski is known as a smart offensive thinker who has excellent mobility, passes well, capably joins rushes, and can play a physical style when necessary. However, at 5’11, 190 lbs., Goligoski doesn’t have the size to fend off forwards with big frames. He has a reputation for coughing up the puck if subjected to heavy pressure. Still, with 240 points in 480 games, a 0.5 point-per-game pace, Goligoski is a highly-skilled offensive blue liner with lots of experience.
Despite Goligoski’s physical shortcomings, the slick defender has managed top-pair ratings in all key advanced stats areas. His primary point rates are elite and his puck possession and shot suppression work are top-notch. Goligoski is a top-2 quality NHL defenseman with the experience to step in and log heavy minutes for virtually any team in the league. Expect Goligoski to seek a deal worth more than the $4.6 million cap hit he currently carries. If the 30-year-old is willing to sign for $5 million per year, he’ll be a hotly pursued free agent in 2016.
1. Mark Giordano – Calgary Flames
Right Defenseman – 31 years old – $4.02 million
Likelihood of free agency: 8/10
The Calgary Flames are staring down a huge cap problem in 2016. All three members of the team’s first line – Jiri Hudler, Sean Monahan, and Johnny Gaudreau – will need new contracts just as captain and number one defenseman Mark Giordano reaches unrestricted free agency. To complicate things further, Giordano has battled severe injuries, is already 31-years-old, and is rumoured to be interested in a huge contract. Can the Flames afford to lock up their leader on the blue line? Or, will GM Brad Treliving be content to trade Giordano away, turning over his defense corps to rising studs T.J. Brodie and Dougie Hamilton?
If Treliving chooses to trade, Giordano could enter free agency next summer. Though his contract demand appears to be high, many teams will be interested. Giordano is regarded as a leader, a warrior, and an all-around offensive linchpin who can skate and distribute the puck at an elite level. He’s registered 245 points in 510 career games (a 0.48 points-per-game rate) but has scored above 0.7 points-per-game pace over the past two (injury-shortened) seasons.
In terms of advanced stats, Giordano is an elite player in all facets. If Giordano manages a full season of games while playing at this level, he will be a strong contender for the Norris Trophy. His individual production levels all border on elite and his puck possession work is without match. Giordano deserves mention alongside Erik Karlsson, P.K. Subban, Drew Doughty, and Duncan Keith as one of the best defensemen in the NHL. If Giordano is allowed to test free agency next summer, his recent injury trouble won’t stop him from commanding a gigantic free agent deal.
Written by Sean Tierney, who can be found @SeanTierneyTSS
