Every year there is plenty of turnover in the playoff picture as, on average, four or five teams miss the playoffs that made it the previous year.
With that in mind let’s take a look at a couple Eastern Conference teams that could have a difficult time getting back into the playoffs in 2016-17.
Detroit Red Wings
I think Detroit’s absurdly long streak of 25 consecutive years making the postseason will reach its end this season.
Up front the Red Wings have plenty of talented players, but continue to underutilize guys like Tomas Tatar and Andreas Athanasiou, despite very encouraging rate stats, while Justin Abdelkader, Luke Glendening and Darren Helm often play more than they should. Henrik Zetterberg is on the decline and Pavel Dastyuk, who was fantastic again for Detroit last season, walked away for nothing, which certainly won’t help the team’s cause.
On defense the Red Wings have some problems. Niklas Kronwall was once a very solid blue liner but those days are long gone. Over the last two seasons the Red Wings have controlled 49.9% of the shot attempts and 43.5% of the goals with Kronwall on the ice at 5 v 5. That ranks him 6th and 7th among seven eligible defensemen on the team. Despite his deteriorating on-ice performance only Danny DeKeyser, whose on-ice results also suggest he is overplayed, has logged more minutes per game than Kronwall over that span.
Some of Detroit’s best forwards have been mishandled and their blue line as a whole isn’t very good. I really like Petr Mrazek but I’m not sure he’s going to be able to make up for that in 2016-17.
New York Rangers
Despite routinely being out shot, the New York Rangers managed to make the playoffs last season. They were 26th in 5 v 5 shot attempt for% and actually ranked behind the likes of Buffalo and Columbus in that regard.
So why did they make the playoffs? Two reasons: 1) they led the league in shooting percentage, which I doubt they do again and; 2) Henrik Lundqvist was incredible (shocking, I know). He and Antti Raanta combined to stop .934% of the shots they faced at 5 v 5, which gave the Rangers a chance every night.
Relying on crazy high shooting percentages and goaltending to bail you out isn’t a great recipe for success over time.
I really like the Rangers’ forward core – there is both depth and high-end talent – but the defense remains a big problem. Dan Girardi and Marc Staal have both struggled immensely over the last couple years yet have been spoon fed big minutes. That will likely be the case again this season.
That means Lundqvist will be seeing a lot of rubber again this season and, while he is a fantastic goaltender, I’m not sure he’ll be able to bail the Rangers out again.
New York could end up sliding into the playoffs in 2016-17, but their blue line is certainly going to test that theory.
Written by Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell)