I am, in a phrase, a salary nerd. The majority of my analytical work has centered on what players are paid and why. So when I was asked if I would do a couple of pieces on best and worst contracts, I immediately said “sure!” thinking it would be the easiest thing in the world.
As usual, I was wrong. There are a lot of factors that go into a contract and what makes it good or bad, but in the end it boiled down to 1) how well is the skater doing their job compared to their peers, 2) does the dollar amount line up to their performance, and 3) what kind of timeframe are we looking at.
So here’s where I landed, from worst to…worst-er.
10) Bryan Bickell, Chicago Blackhawks – $4m AAV, UFA in 2017
As I’m writing these words, Bickell has been put on waivers, though the reason is unclear. What is clear is his contract was the product of some emotional decision making during the celebration of the 2013 Stanley Cup Win.
Bickell was one of the famous 2 goals in 17 seconds to win that cup and was quickly rewarded with a $4m extension for 4 years. But other than that big goal in the playoffs, his production was below par. As you can see from the graphs above, there was no evidence he would be worth 6-7% of the cap, and lo and behold…he wasn’t. The Blackhawks reportedly tried to move this contract several times over the summer and couldn’t, resulting in Bickell heading to waivers. Even if he plays in Rockford, the Hawks will only be spared $950k from his cap hit.
Update: Coach Joel Quenneville called the waiver move a “wake up call” for Bickell. He cleared, with no takers. Gee, I wonder why.
9) Zach Parise & Ryan Suter, Minnesota Wild – Matching $7.538m AAVs, UFAs in 2025
Signed before the current CBA, Zach Parise & Ryan Suter came to the Wild as a set, with matching $98 million, 13 year contracts.
Read that again.
Ninety-eight. Million. Thirteen. Year.
The only reason that these two aren’t higher on this list is because right now, well, they’re doing ok.
But the real problem comes that these two are being paid this amount for the next ten years. That’s right. It is 2015 now, and this AAV lasts until 2025. By 2025, Parise will be 39 and Suter will be 40. The over-30 aging curve is not kind, and you have to be an exceptional player to still be relevant at $3m in that age range, let alone $7.5m. Add these two to “buyout watch” in about 5 years, especially as the largest portion of their contracts will have already been paid 2020.
8) Brandon Sutter (extension), Vancouver Canucks – $4.375m AAV, UFA in 2021
One of the big moves the Canucks made this summer was trading Nick Bonino to the Penguins in exchange for Brandon Sutter. GM Jim Benning tagged him as a key piece of the franchise’s future, and everyone was left thinking “…what?”
In Pittsburgh, Sutter was a third line Center, and a key piece of their penalty kill. In Vancouver, it’s expected he’ll probably be tried on the second line, which will probably help with his possession stats, but look closely at his Points per 60; Primary points per 60 are considered the far more repeatable of the two metrics, and is where he’s suffering quite a lot. He wasn’t a great deal at his current $3.3m salary, so the nearly $22 million extension lands him firmly on my “worst of” list.
7) Johnny Boychuk, NY Islanders – $6m AAV, UFA in 2022 & Ryan Kesler, Anaheim Ducks – $6.875 AAV, UFA in 2022
Yes, one’s a defender and the other’s a forward, and yes they play for different teams, so why are they paired together? It’s not because they’re about the same total value per contract ($42m and $41.25m respectively), it’s because both of these contracts were signed after the player turned thirty.
Age isn’t kind to anyone, least of all professional athletes. Guys who buck this trend, like Jaromir Jagr, are the exception, not the rule. In all fairness, Boychuk and Kesler are both invaluable to their teams now, but to put them over 8% of the cap as they get older and older? That’s asking too much.
Here’s some advice, free of charge, GMs – if a player is already over 30, he doesn’t get a contract over $18m. That’s 3yrs at $6m, or a longer term at a price that’s more tradeable.
6) Rob Scuderi, Pittsburgh Penguins – $3.375 AAV, UFA in 2017
I recently completely a large project on what differentiates a “good” UFA signing from a “bad” one, and Rob Scuderi’s name popped up not once, but twice in my sample. That’s right – he was a bad deal for the Kings at $3.4 for 4 years, and then what do the Pens do? Snap him up in free agency for a nearly identical contract.
No amount of “good locker room presence” is going to cover up the fact that Scuderi is a defensive liability. The only reason he’s not higher on the list is because his AAV is low enough that most teams can easily absorb that hit.
Stay tuned for my picks for 1-5!
