COVID-19 had a significant impact on the 2019-20 NHL season, including a shortened season, a play-in round, and playoffs that played out in two bubble locations in Canada, devoid of fans. In the end, it was the Tampa Bay Lightning and Conn Smythe winner Victor Hedman taking down the Dallas Stars in six games, and winning their second Stanley Cup trophy.
The NHL’s return to play this season was announced in a joint statement with the players’ union and the NHL in December. The two parties agreed to a 56-game season to begin on January 13th, 2021, with realigned divisions and a dramatically different playoff format that could see two same-conference teams in the finals. The NHL will compete in four divisions, and each team will only play divisional games this season. The top four teams in each division will qualify for the playoffs, and seeding and re-seeding will be done through the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds.
The shortened timeline had NHL and team officials working day and night to make this all work, and oddsmakers scrambling to set futures odds and predictions for this season’s Stanley Cup based on entirely new sets of scheduling and strength of division parameters. Now at the quarter season mark, we have some predictions.
Hurricanes will advance to the Finals
The Carolina Hurricanes opened at +2000 underdogs at the beginning of the season and are now +1500 sitting atop the Discover Central Division ahead of the defending champion Lightning, Florida Panthers, and last year’s Western Conference champion Stars.
The Hurricanes are led by a balanced attack and a mixture of young stars including Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechinikov, and Martin Nacas, and wily veterans like Jordan Staal, Dougie Hamilton, Brady Skjei, and Vincent Trocheck. One question might be their goaltending, and it’s likely that General Manager Don Waddell addresses that at the trade deadline.
The Avalanche will win the Stanley Cup
The Colorado Avalanche (+700), the Tampa Bay Lightning (+750), the Vegas Golden Knights (+1000), the Toronto Maple Leafs (+1100), and the Boston Bruins (+1400) entered the season as the top favorites to win the Stanley Cup in the shortened 2021 NHL season. We’re sticking with the season favorite Avalanche to win for the first time since the 2000-01 season when they beat the New Jersey Devils in seven games.
Colorado is simply loaded. After years of struggling, General Manager Joe Sakic seems to have all the pieces in place for a deep playoff run. Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Brandon Saad, and team Captain Gabriel Landeskog lead a deep squad of fast skating forwards, while all-world sophomore Cale Makar highlights a competent and deep defensive blueline that features Ryan Graves, Devon Toews, and Bowen Byram. Goalie Philipp Grubauer has started every game to date and currently leads the league in goals against and save percentage.
The Avalanche also has the benefit of playing in the suddenly weak Honda West Division. The Anaheim Ducks, Los Angeles Kings, and San Jose Sharks are all uncharacteristically weak this season, though both Las Vegas and the St. Louis Blues will likely make strong arguments on the ice during the divisional playoffs.
McDavid will win the Hart
Nathan MacKinnon entered this season as a +650 favorite to win the Hart Memorial Trophy as the NHL’s regular-season MVP, with the Edmonton Oilers Captain Connor McDavid right behind him at +700. The New York Rangers forward Artemi Panarin (+1000), last year’s winner and McDavid teammate Leon Draisaitl (+1150), and Buffalo Sabre Jack Eichel (+1400) rounded out the top five back in December.
The odds have changed dramatically. McDavid, who won the Hart in 2016-17 with 100 points in 82 games (30-70-100) is now the dominant favorite at +200. The Edmonton captain has 37 points in 20 games, a blistering 152 point pace in a normal 82 game season would be the highest point total since Mario Lemiuex in 1995-96. MacKinnon, who’s having a terrific season has dropped to +700, while Toronto’s super pair of Auston Mathews (+1000) and Mitch Marner (+1200) join Draisaitl (+900) at the top.
